I've never been much interested in prop bets, but maybe that will change...
Reading through the threads and elsewhere, I understand well the idea behind using the Poisson dist to model such bets. My question is, has anyone investigated/discussed the likelihood of over- or under-dispersion in different types of prop situations (ie., variance not equal to the mean, which is assumed in the Poisson). In which case, using the negative binomial dist instead would be a preferred alternative. Or is this not considered a relevant practical issue in prop betting?
Links to articles, studies would be appreciated!
Reading through the threads and elsewhere, I understand well the idea behind using the Poisson dist to model such bets. My question is, has anyone investigated/discussed the likelihood of over- or under-dispersion in different types of prop situations (ie., variance not equal to the mean, which is assumed in the Poisson). In which case, using the negative binomial dist instead would be a preferred alternative. Or is this not considered a relevant practical issue in prop betting?
Links to articles, studies would be appreciated!
