Wong Teasers and Pre-NFL

[dogman]

The first dog and the first under comes thru. Didn't have to tease as both covered without the 6 or 7 points. Something to keep track of in Week 1.

[mvp123]

i play teasers all the time and its a greatway to bet football imo

[BarkingToad]

#9





I check in here from time to time. So here's some NFLX data to consider. All I generally bet are teasers and parlays, but preseason there's no shame in betting them dogs, proportionally, in straight bets, parlays, and teasers.

Over the last 14 years (sample size 904) ALL Dogs went 477-391-36 for 55% ATS.

Dogs +1 to +3, ATS 195-162-26 for 54.6%, the same teased up 6 points, 284-98-1 for 74.3%

Home Dogs +1 to +10, 80-57-4 for 58.4 ATS, the same teased up 6 points 107-33-1 for 76.4%

Road Dogs +4.5 to +6 (one of my favorite subsets) 188-34-0 for 75.2%

So, tease those Dogs, Bet them ATS, and put them in parlays.

But wait!, Lets drill down to see what just Week 1 shows us.

Week 1 All Dogs ATS, 136-98-16 for 58.1%

All Dogs +6, 187-63-0 for 74.8%

All HD +6, 29-7 for 80.5%

All Dogs +1 to +3, teased up 6 points, 100-32-0 for 75.8%

There you have it, that's all the data I care to post on these preseason games (I am keeping a few subsets to myself)

This is great stuff, Bill. Thank you and BOL to you!

[gman2114]

time to gamble

[Mike9999]

Bill,

I'm curious, have you compared the dogs ATS vs their ML? Is there more value in one or the other?

[Bill the cop]

Bill,

I'm curious, have you compared the dogs ATS vs their ML? Is there more value in one or the other?

Mike,
The problem with NFLX MLs is they're all over the map. Each book determines what they need and sets their vig accordingly. That said, here's some data that might help you:

ALL dogs SU (ML) went 372-531-1 for 41.2%

Dogs Pk to +3 went 233-273 for 46%

Lets look at just the +3 (a typical +3 ML with -110 vig would be about +123). The +3 by itself went 126-148 on the ML for 46%. This translates into EV of +2.6%. All I can say is shop around, you may find a place with a +3 with a ML of +135 or so. Remember, the +3 ATS covers at 57.3% and the 6pt. tease at 74.4%, so it's quite possible that dogs bet on the ML, ATS, in parlays, and in teasers are all +EV

[The Bishop]

Bill, great information so far. Curious as to your take on teasing up +3.5 and +4.0 dogs in NFLx, particularly road dogs. Any value in this or only at +4.5 to +6.0?

[LT Profits]

Bill, great information so far. Curious as to your take on teasing up +3.5 and +4.0 dogs in NFLx, particularly road dogs. Any value in this or only at +4.5 to +6.0?

Any teaser that doesn't cross the 3 and the 7 is useless. Once you start deviating and start with +3.5 and +4, you drop back from the 76% zone required for the individual legs.

[Justin7]

Any teaser that doesn't cross the 3 and the 7 is useless. Once you start deviating and start with +3.5 and +4, you drop back from the 76% zone required for the individual legs.

I'm not sure I agree with your first sentence.

Would you tease a -6.5 favorite with a total of 33, if the moneyline were -300/+260? Or a +1 dog in NFLx?

[Mike9999]

Bill,

Thank you for taking the time to help.

[BarkingToad]

I agree with Mike, thank you Bill. I have a question for LT profits or Justin7, is it ever good to tease totals just for preseason games or is it a -EV? 2 games I would consider are Pitt/Detroit under since 15 of last 17 preseason games Pitt goes under, as well as Detroit under 3 of last 4. The other game is teasing over Jets/Giants since Jets don't show anything on defense in preseason. Would teasing these 2 totals be considered dumb on my part?

[Bill the cop]

Let's clear up what you need for a teaser to be profitable. The BE for even money 2 teamers and +300 4 teamers is 70.7%, for a 3 teamer at +180 it's 70.9%. So you don't need anything near 76% to be profitable. Using the 3 teamers at +180 (widely available at most books):

At 76%=+EV 22.9%
At 74%=+EV 13.4%
At 73%=+EV 8.9%
At 72%=+EV 4.4%

There's nothing wrong with a +EV of 10% or so play!

Regarding teasing the +3.5 or +4. However you tease this subset it just doesn't pan out, 109-64-1 for 63%. You can't even tease the -3.5 or -4 down and make any money, 119-55-0 for 68.4%.

I've got a lot to say about basic strategy teasers in the regular season (hint 3 out of the 4 subsets are virtually worthless). But I'm on my way trout fishing in the beautiful colorado rocky mountains. I'll post some info when I get back.

[djiddish98]

Over the last 14 years (sample size 904) ALL Dogs went 477-391-36 for 55% ATS.

Dogs +1 to +3, ATS 195-162-26 for 54.6%, the same teased up 6 points, 284-98-1 for 74.3%

Home Dogs +1 to +10, 80-57-4 for 58.4 ATS, the same teased up 6 points 107-33-1 for 76.4%

Road Dogs +4.5 to +6 (one of my favorite subsets) 188-34-0 for 75.2%

So, tease those Dogs, Bet them ATS, and put them in parlays.

Can we expect this dog bias to continue to exist as NFLX becomes a more popular gambling market? I'm curious how the dogs did when looking at 2004-2009 as opposed to another equal subset before then.

Everyone knows that the NFL exhibited a home dog bias in the past, but it seems the market has caught up to this and its no longer a viable blind betting strategy.

I suppose my question is - how efficient is the NFLX market? Should we expect an even split on the dog/fave going forward, or are there still some biases out there?

[The Bishop]

Regarding teasing the +3.5 or +4. However you tease this subset it just doesn't pan out, 109-64-1 for 63%. You can't even tease the -3.5 or -4 down and make any money, 119-55-0 for 68.4%

Bill, thanks for the info.

Are home dogs of +3.5 or +4.0 worth teasing up in NFLx or the results for both home and road dogs poor?

I'm only asking because you said "Home Dogs +1 to +10, 80-57-4 for 58.4 ATS, the same teased up 6 points 107-33-1 for 76.4%" which would include home dogs of +3.5 and +4.0.

Thanks.

[Cheme82]

I'm thinking of taking advantage of -105 lines and 10 cents additional to buy a hook regardless of the line. Looking at a few of the games on the board at Pinnacle:

Oak +3.5 -115
Wash -3 -125
KC +3 -116
Det +3 -116
St. Louis -1 -116
Clev +3 -123
Sea -3 -120
SF -3 -118

What do you guys think of playing these for -105 and -115 when moving off the 3. Also thinking about parlaying 2 of the higher juice ones at +250, anything over 30 cents in combined juice (ex. parlaying -115 and -115) is a good deal since a 2-team parlay with 30 cents of juice pays right about +250.

[RickySteve]

So NFLX dogs ran well and/or were under-priced in the recent past, so what? Regurgitating this doesn't make them good bets going forward.

[BarkingToad]

I'm thinking of taking advantage of -105 lines and 10 cents additional to buy a hook regardless of the line. Looking at a few of the games on the board at Pinnacle:

Oak +3.5 -115
Wash -3 -125
KC +3 -116
Det +3 -116
St. Louis -1 -116
Clev +3 -123
Sea -3 -120
SF -3 -118

What do you guys think of playing these for -105 and -115 when moving off the 3. Also thinking about parlaying 2 of the higher juice ones at +250, anything over 30 cents in combined juice (ex. parlaying -115 and -115) is a good deal since a 2-team parlay with 30 cents of juice pays right about +250.

Just my opinion, but I don't like the idea of buying points when you're already at a key number. Now if you're able to buy 1/2 point cheap if line is +2 1/2 or -3 1/2 (which is highly unlikely), then that's a different story.

I would also be careful on playing KC unless you have some good info. The last 3 years in preseason they are 1-11 against the spread. I'm sure oddsmakers have this info too, so who knows.

[djiddish98]

I'm thinking of taking advantage of -105 lines and 10 cents additional to buy a hook regardless of the line. Looking at a few of the games on the board at Pinnacle:

Oak +3.5 -115
Wash -3 -125
KC +3 -116
Det +3 -116
St. Louis -1 -116
Clev +3 -123
Sea -3 -120
SF -3 -118

What do you guys think of playing these for -105 and -115 when moving off the 3. Also thinking about parlaying 2 of the higher juice ones at +250, anything over 30 cents in combined juice (ex. parlaying -115 and -115) is a good deal since a 2-team parlay with 30 cents of juice pays right about +250.

If those -115s were the no-vig numbers, then you'd have a very tiny positive edge on the parlay. However, they are not the no-vig numbers, so I'm sure that's now a negative edge.

Are you talking about buying away from the 3? IE going from +3 to +2.5? If you're shopping at pinnacle, then that's a bad deal. I think buying points only works if the bookie doesn't understand the value of the point he's selling you.

[Bill the cop]

Can we expect this dog bias to continue to exist as NFLX becomes a more popular gambling market? I'm curious how the dogs did when looking at 2004-2009 as opposed to another equal subset before then.

Everyone knows that the NFL exhibited a home dog bias in the past, but it seems the market has caught up to this and its no longer a viable blind betting strategy.

I suppose my question is - how efficient is the NFLX market? Should we expect an even split on the dog/fave going forward, or are there still some biases out there?

I certainly don't know what this market will do in the future. When looking at the last 6 years (2004-2009), there doesn't appear to be any dropoff from the historical data. Here we go, sample size 390:

All dogs +1 to +3 teased 6 points, 184-63-1 for 74.5%

Home dog +1 to +10, 49-13-0 for 79%

Dogs +1 to +3 ATS, 126-108-14 for 53.8%

Just teasing the +3, 125-39-1 for 76.2%

The NFLX actual average line has held pretty steady over the last 14 years at 3.5 (compared to the regular seasons of 5.6). Just because certain subsets have done quite well in the past doesn't necessarily mean that they will replicate that performance going forward (but until there's a seachange in the data, that's the way I'll be betting). Those who are good handicappers (which I suck at) can incorporate these data with their handicapping skills and possibly do better than just going by the data alone.

Someone asked about teasing totals. With the possible exception of a few 10 point subsets, I find no value. But again, if it's part of a handicapped play that you think is good, fire away!

[dogman]

I read somewhere that teasing the under 7 points in WEEK 1 of the preseason won a little over 72% of the time

[Bill the cop]

I read somewhere that teasing the under 7 points in WEEK 1 of the preseason won a little over 72% of the time

A 7 point teaser leg that wins at a 72% rate is a loser. Normal vig on a 7 pointer is -130, the BE is 75.2%. If you can get -120 the BE is 73.9%.

[Cheme82]

Just my opinion, but I don't like the idea of buying points when you're already at a key number. Now if you're able to buy 1/2 point cheap if line is +2 1/2 or -3 1/2 (which is highly unlikely), then that's a different story. I would also be careful on playing KC unless you have some good info. The last 3 years in preseason they are 1-11 against the spread. I'm sure oddsmakers have this info too, so who knows.

How would you feel if you could get Washington -2.5 -115 with your local when the line is -3 -125? I know they are already at a key number but if you could move off the 3 by paying less juice than actually getting -3 at pinnacle I think that's a good deal.

Same with KC, I know they have been horrible in preseason but like you said, the books know that too. Right now they are +3 -123, I can play them at +3.5 -115. Just looking at line value (no handicapping) wouldn't that make you money in the long run?

[Cheme82]

If those -115s were the no-vig numbers, then you'd have a very tiny positive edge on the parlay. However, they are not the no-vig numbers, so I'm sure that's now a negative edge. Are you talking about buying away from the 3? IE going from +3 to +2.5? If you're shopping at pinnacle, then that's a bad deal. I think buying points only works if the bookie doesn't understand the value of the point he's selling you.

Are the lines that pinnacle shows no-vig lines? Most of the ones I see are 5 cents (-120,+110). How do you see the no-vig lines? I was thinking about parlaying the big juice lines (a couple of -125) and getting +250 in return when the normal payout should be around +225.

I'm talking about buying into the 3 or away from it but my way (from -3 to -2.5, +3 to +3.5 etc.) all at -115 (I get -105 juice and 10 cents on any half point buy) which clearly proves the book doesn't know the value of the half point off of a key number. If there was a favorite of -3.5 with high juice I could actually buy a whole point for 20 cents and bet them at -2.5 -125. The other way around works as well, Oakland for example is +3.5 -121, I could actually bet them at +4.5 -125. What do you think of that bet?

[LT Profits]

Are the lines that pinnacle shows no-vig lines? Most of the ones I see are 5 cents (-120,+110). How do you see the no-vig lines? I was thinking about parlaying the big juice lines (a couple of -125) and getting +250 in return when the normal payout should be around +225.

I'm talking about buying into the 3 or away from it but my way (from -3 to -2.5, +3 to +3.5 etc.) all at -115 (I get -105 juice and 10 cents on any half point buy) which clearly proves the book doesn't know the value of the half point off of a key number. If there was a favorite of -3.5 with high juice I could actually buy a whole point for 20 cents and bet them at -2.5 -125. The other way around works as well, Oakland for example is +3.5 -121, I could actually bet them at +4.5 -125. What do you think of that bet?

No Vig Line for various line sets:

-105/-105 = +100
-110/+100 = +/-104.8
-115/+105 = */-109.7
-120/+110 = +/-114.5

If you can buy 1/2 points on, off or through 3 for just 10 cents, it is like printing money. Most books charge 25 cents around the 3.

[Cheme82]

Hey LT what do you think about parlaying the high juice lines at +250? Would you mess with that or would you rather just move off the 3's with high juice for -115?

[Flying Dutchman]

Wong isn't his real name, though it would've been funny had he chose "Wang" instead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_Wong

where wong came from ^^^

[thebestthereis]

wang is better cause caddyshack was funny flipping movie which is all the matters anyway

[BarkingToad]

Someone asked about teasing totals. With the possible exception of a few 10 point subsets, I find no value. But again, if it's part of a handicapped play that you think is good, fire away!

That was me, thanks for the insight!

[djiddish98]

(I get -105 juice and 10 cents on any half point buy)

Wow - carefully take advantage of this and don't burn the bridge that leads to the golden goose. This seems like a great deal, though.

[HedgeHog]

A lot of useful info has been shared in this thread--sincere thanks to all. Perhaps I can get some help on another teaser scenario. Teasing through the 0 is widely regarded as a sucker bet, because there is little value in 0, 1 and 2. However, take the case where a 3.5 favorite has it's teaser line shaved to -3 as is commonly done. Also, assume you can do a two team 6-point tease with ties winning at -105. It seems to me that teasing through both 3's would be advantageous. Looking at the ML's of 3.5 favs, I would estimate they win outright around 62% of the time. They can also lose by 3 or less and still be a winner in your teaser. This should bring the success rate to the 75% range or so.

In theory this looks like a winning strategy, but I wonder if actual results support it. BTW, I see four opportunities this week with Philly, Miami, S.F. and Cincy. As usual, constructive feedback is appreciated.

[wrongturn]

Are you sure tie-wins rule applies to NFL 2-team 6pt teaser? That does not sound right. But I have never done that before.

[HedgeHog]

At 5-Dimes, you can get -105 on 2 team 6-pointers with ties winning. Jazz Books also have ties winning, but at -110.

[Bill the cop]

"A lot of useful info has been shared in this thread--sincere thanks to all. Perhaps I can get some help on another teaser scenario. Teasing through the 0 is widely regarded as a sucker bet, because there is little value in 0, 1 and 2. However, take the case where a 3.5 favorite has it's teaser line shaved to -3 as is commonly done. Also, assume you can do a two team 6-point tease with ties winning at -105. It seems to me that teasing through both 3's would be advantageous."

Here's what you're up against with that strategy. Favs -3 teased 6 points to +3, 163-82-29 for 66.5%. With ties winning, those 29 pushes turn into wins, 192-82-0 for 70.1% (still a loser I'm affraid).

[HedgeHog]

Thanks, Bill. I'm actually focusing on -3.5 faves essentially teased to +3.5 dogs.

[Cheme82]

Wow - carefully take advantage of this and don't burn the bridge that leads to the golden goose. This seems like a great deal, though.

That's the plan bro!