guessing which way the opening line will move

[lasker]

Regarding basketball totals:

Is there any way of making an educated guess as to whether the opening line will move up or down? For instance, if I like the under but have confidence the line is still going to move up, then of course I would wait to get the better number. Any good way of guessing, or is it pretty random?

[suicidekings]

Regarding basketball totals:

Is there any way of making an educated guess as to whether the opening line will move up or down? For instance, if I like the under but have confidence the line is still going to move up, then of course I would wait to get the better number. Any good way of guessing, or is it pretty random?

You need to develop a method for generating your own fair lines for the game that accurately reflects both a generalized assessment of the two teams, and takes into account current form / special circumstances (weather, bullpen rest, home/away, etc). That will give you an educated guess. As for how to go about this, people generate lines several different ways. Your goal should be to figure out which direction the line should move, which isn't always the same as which way it will move.

[illfuuptn]

You need to develop a method for generating your own fair lines for the game that accurately reflects both a generalized assessment of the two teams, and takes into account current form / special circumstances (weather, bullpen rest, home/away, etc). That will give you an educated guess. As for how to go about this, people generate lines several different
ways. Your goal should be to
figure out which direction the line
should move, which isn't always the same as which way it
will move.

very well said

[suicidekings]

You need to develop a method for generating your own fair lines for the game that accurately reflects both a generalized assessment of the two teams, and takes into account current form / special circumstances (weather, bullpen rest, home/away, etc). That will give you an educated guess. As for how to go about this, people generate lines several different ways. Your goal should be to figure out which direction the line should move, which isn't always the same as which way it will move.

Edit: When I read this post, I thought it said baseball. For NBA, it's not uncommon for a total to rise initially/throughout the day and then drop down in the hour or two before tip-off (or vice-versa). The line movement can be very misleading, but if you really like the Under and you see the line rise a point or two, don't necessarily be discouraged that you're on the wrong side of it.

[suicidekings]

Thanks for the points, illfuuptn

[Peep]

Your goal should be to
figure out which direction the line
should move, which isn't always the same as which way it
will move.

I think that the direction I think the line should move is irrelevant. It moves the way that it moves for mostly one reason, money. And it is quite possible the money knows something that I don't.

[suicidekings]

I think that the direction I think the line should move is irrelevant. It moves the way that it moves for mostly one reason, money. And it is quite possible the money knows something that I don't.

Absolutely. But then you're getting into public betting percentages, and for totals I don't think they carry as much weight as they do for sides.

[bookie]

That move in the hour or so before tip-off of an NBA game is often related to a key player's status being announced. If you can read between the lines about a player playing or not you can be on the right side of that late move.

[gmcarroll33]

That move in the hour or so before tip-off of an NBA game is often related to a key player's status being announced. If you can read between the lines about a player playing or not you can be on the right side of that late move.

Says Hi!!

[Waz]

In order to assess how well you are betting, you should always compare the line you got versus the closing line. If you are consistently beating the closing line (around 75% or more), then you WILL make money in the long run. Even if you're losing now, just be patient, the money will come if you're managing it well.