Using Pinnacle Prop Prices to Calculate Edge against a Different Book

[DeluxeLiner]

I noticed that during the World Cup various sports books have the same props for different prices. If I take the price at Pinnacle for a given prop and compare it to a different book, can I calculate my edge? I am assuming Pinnacle has the prop priced correctly.

For example..

Pinnacle
Team X vs Team Y: Both teams to score
Yes +150
No -170
--
Sportsbook A
Team X vs Team Y: Both teams to score
Yes +110
No -150


I calculate the Implied Probability ("The win probability that would imply zero vig on the offered line") for Pinnacle "No -170" which is 62.96% using the SBR odds converter tool. I then use the SBR Kelly Calculator and input the 62.96% into the Win Probability. I then input -150 into the odds for the Sportsbook A's "No". The Kelly Calculator reads that I should be betting 7.4% of my roll for this bet.

Considering Pinnacle "Yes" is +150 did I just make a bet with zero ev or was it +ev?

[uva3021]

everything should be adjusted to fair value, then input the best odds you can fidn relative to the fair value price

so implied probability of 62.96% is fair value 61.15%

enter that as the Win probability, with -150 as US Odds

then the Kelly 1x multiplier would be 2.875%

Kelly is aggressive, half Kelly is what I would prefer if I strictly used Kelly

[Pancho sanza]

At only 2k limits with a 15 cent line, I wouldn't use that approach.

[clarkj2]

How sharp are the baseball team totals at Pinnacle? Would you employ this approach with 4500K limits on the team totals at Pinny? Some books have quite different numbers on Team Totals for baseball compared to pinny.

[trixtrix]

yes liquidity correlates positively w/ efficiency, at least in theory

[Dank_Fire]

Interesting idea....I would assume that this would be much more useful in higher volume games...Like NFL maybe

[DeluxeLiner]

At only 2k limits with a 15 cent line, I wouldn't use that approach.

I am not betting very much money on these props, I don't understand why I need to bet huge amounts for this to work. Shouldn't I be getting a percentage from Kelly and it doesn't matter what I am betting? Why would you not use this approach?

everything should be adjusted to fair value, then input the best odds you can fidn relative to the fair value price

so implied probability of 62.96% is fair value 61.15%

enter that as the Win probability, with -150 as US Odds

then the Kelly 1x multiplier would be 2.875%

Kelly is aggressive, half Kelly is what I would prefer if I strictly used Kelly

How are you taking the vigorish out to find fair odds? The 61.15% seems to be -157?

--

Since I believe (and know) Pinnacle is the more efficient market, it seems that I am finding an edge here. I appreciate all your guys' comments.

[djiddish98]

I believe what pancho was getting at is that their prop markets are not as efficient as their other major markets so your calculated edge is much less precise.

Correct me if I misinterpreted.

[sharpcat]

I am not betting very much money on these props, I don't understand why I need to bet huge amounts for this to work. Shouldn't I be getting a percentage from Kelly and it doesn't matter what I am betting? Why would you not use this approach?



How are you taking the vigorish out to find fair odds? The 61.15% seems to be -157?

--

Since I believe (and know) Pinnacle is the more efficient market, it seems that I am finding an edge here. I appreciate all your guys' comments.

He is implying that because of low limits with high juice these props will not draw much action and the book has more of an edge and does not have to adjust the line as accurately as with a .10 cent line therefore meaning that the pinnacle no vig line may not be very accurate because without lots of money and action coming in the market is not as likely to correct itself as in a more popular market with higher limits and lower juice would.

[DeluxeLiner]

I think "Sportsbook A" got wise...

[SpiderMonkey]

I think "Sportsbook A" got wise...

This ... is the only reason I give some less than "A+" books action ...

[Grind-It-Out]

How are you taking the vigorish out to find fair odds? The 61.15% seems to be -157?

You have to take the vig out to get the true implied odds, ie what Pinnacle truly thinks are the odds.

With the lines you stated, 61.15% is the no-vig line for NO.

[uva3021]

if you didn't less the overround then standard issue bets would have 52% probability lol, and wagers at Pinnacle would be always EV

[Poogs]

You're on track with your thinking. Your math is close but a little off.

The question on hand is how efficient the prop market is on pinny. Like people have said, there's pretty high juice and not reaaally high limits so their prices probably aren't perfect. A good approach would be to take a look at multiple books but weigh pinny the heaviest.

[Bluehorseshoe]

You're on track with your thinking. Your math is close but a little off. The question on hand is how efficient the prop market is on pinny. Like people have said, there's pretty high juice and not reaaally high limits so their prices probably aren't perfect. A good approach would be to take a look at multiple books but weigh pinny the heaviest.

Are multiple books going to factor into this with their limits being much lower?

[roasthawg]

everything should be adjusted to fair value, then input the best odds you can fidn relative to the fair value price

so implied probability of 62.96% is fair value 61.15%

enter that as the Win probability, with -150 as US Odds

then the Kelly 1x multiplier would be 2.875%

Kelly is aggressive, half Kelly is what I would prefer if I strictly used Kelly

Why are you adjusting Pinnacle's implied win percentage? If he's using Pinny's odds as the "true" odds then the 62.96% is correct.

I'm not saying that Pinny's odds are in fact the closest approximation of the "true" odds... only that his math was correct if he is assuming it to be.