Trying to Optimize a "Consensus Plays" Script

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  • Grind-It-Out
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 05-04-10
    • 537

    #1
    Trying to Optimize a "Consensus Plays" Script
    I have access to all the baseball picks from 'cappers on one sports monitor.

    I wrote a quick and dirty script to try to get consensus plays, but I'd really like your help on how to make it better.

    I have...
    Step 1: Query for all handicappers who are hitting at the equivalent of 57% or better on a -110 line (I calculate this by units of profit per bet).
    Step 2: Take each capper's (units of profit / #games) and set that as the initial rating for that capper. If a capper has picked less than 100 games, multiply the initial rating by (#games / 100) so we take into account the confidence level.
    Step 3: Have an outer loop with all games being played today and an inner loop fetching all picks from each qualified capper for any particular game. If a capper picked a team, add his rating to the total value of that team. If a team ends up with a value of >.25 + the value of its opponent, pick that team as a consensus play.

    Like I said, it's quick and dirty, and not very good.

    I can provide code if that would help. Thanks so much!
  • FreeFall
    SBR MVP
    • 02-20-08
    • 3365

    #2
    What would you like to know? It sounds like you have it working as planned? Has it lost in the past year or something?
    Comment
    • Grind-It-Out
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 05-04-10
      • 537

      #3
      Originally posted by FreeFall
      What would you like to know? It sounds like you have it working as planned? Has it lost in the past year or something?
      I have a situation where I have a group of cappers like:
      Capper A: 238 - 157, +36.75
      Capper B: 37 - 18, +22.84
      Capper C: 72 - 41, +20.02
      .
      .
      .
      Capper X: 9 - 1, +8.1
      ..., etc.

      I'm basically asking if anybody has an idea of a more optimum way to get a consensus play when some of these players disagree, because you'll never get a consensus from ALL of the handicappers.
      Comment
      • mathdotcom
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-24-08
        • 11689

        #4
        Your first step already sucks.

        What if I've bet one game and won? I am hitting 100%, but who cares? You need to use a metric that accounts for statistical significance.
        Comment
        • Grind-It-Out
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 05-04-10
          • 537

          #5
          Originally posted by mathdotcom
          Your first step already sucks.

          What if I've bet one game and won? I am hitting 100%, but who cares? You need to use a metric that accounts for statistical significance.
          Read step 2.

          Also, I agree I need to filter further. Thus why I'm asking for help.
          Comment
          • durito
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 07-03-06
            • 13173

            #6
            There are no profitable long term baseball players listed on any consensus site.
            Comment
            • Maverick22
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 04-10-10
              • 807

              #7
              Are there that many cappers that are hitting 57% over lots of games?
              Comment
              • Grind-It-Out
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 05-04-10
                • 537

                #8
                Originally posted by durito
                There are no profitable long term baseball players listed on any consensus site.
                This isn't a consensus site. This is a handicapper monitor. I just happen to have access to all of their picks, so I can create my own consensus.
                Comment
                • Grind-It-Out
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 05-04-10
                  • 537

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Maverick22
                  Are there that many cappers that are hitting 57% over lots of games?
                  There are currently two guys hitting over 57% after 100+ games. But there are also guys that are 8-0 after 8 games, 14-2 after 16 games, etc. I'm wondering what value, if any, I should give those players.

                  Maybe it would be better to simply play all of the games from the two 100+ game cappers, and ignore any picks on which they disagree.
                  Comment
                  • mathdotcom
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-24-08
                    • 11689

                    #10
                    Your 2nd step is not correctly bringing in a confidence interval.

                    I would take all the cappers, run them through a filter to see who is significantly doing better than some % (57% in your case), and drop everyone else. I imagine you will be dropping a shitload of people though.
                    Comment
                    • durito
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 07-03-06
                      • 13173

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Grind-It-Out
                      This isn't a consensus site. This is a handicapper monitor. I just happen to have access to all of their picks, so I can create my own consensus.
                      Either way if you think these people are gonna hit the equivalent of 57% v -110 on WA MLB lines you are wrong.
                      Comment
                      • Grind-It-Out
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 05-04-10
                        • 537

                        #12
                        Originally posted by mathdotcom
                        Your 2nd step is not correctly bringing in a confidence interval.

                        I would take all the cappers, run them through a filter to see who is significantly doing better than some % (57% in your case), and drop everyone else. I imagine you will be dropping a shitload of people though.
                        Very good point. What about something like this for determining each capper's rating...

                        1: Determine adjusted win % by taking units of profit per pick (units of profit / # bets) and setting it equal to .91*w - (1 - w).
                        2: Figure out adjusted # wins by taking adjusted win% * num bets.
                        3: Use binomial distribution and solve for the probability such that the Cumulative Probability: P(X < #wins) ~= .95.

                        Example 1: Handicapper A is 252 - 182, +42.74 units.
                        1: 42.47/(252+182) = 1.91w -1
                        w% = 57.5%
                        2. #wins = .575 * (252+182) = 249.55
                        3. In our binomial distribution formula, set #trials to (252+182) and #successes to 249.55. Find the probability such that Cumulative Probability: P(X < 249.55) ~= .95. Use the resulting probability as our final adjusted win% for this capper. Capper A is a 53.5% capper.

                        Example 2: Handicapper B is 6-0, +6.05
                        1: 6.05/6 = 1.91w - 1
                        w% = 105% -> adjust to 100%, since a greater % is not possible.
                        2: #wins = 6
                        3: Capper B is a 59% capper. Hmmm, I was hoping it didn't work out like that.
                        Comment
                        • Grind-It-Out
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 05-04-10
                          • 537

                          #13
                          Originally posted by durito
                          Either way if you think these people are gonna hit the equivalent of 57% v -110 on WA MLB lines you are wrong.
                          Very true. Perhaps I should and will lower the number.
                          Comment
                          • Maverick22
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 04-10-10
                            • 807

                            #14
                            And this all assumes, each capper comes with his own unique picks...

                            If a capper "borrows" from another capper your "consensus" becomes just that much weaker...

                            Not sure how much this happens, but its something to think about.
                            Comment
                            • sharpcat
                              Restricted User
                              • 12-19-09
                              • 4516

                              #15
                              Judging ones success comes down to a lot more than win loss records and profit over small samples.

                              Are these cappers beating the closer? not beating the closer? have you actually kept tabs on their W/L record or are you just taking their word for it? if you are personally tracking their record, are they profiting against the opener or they profiting against the closer?
                              Comment
                              • Grind-It-Out
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 05-04-10
                                • 537

                                #16
                                Originally posted by sharpcat
                                Judging ones success comes down to a lot more than win loss records and profit over small samples.

                                Are these cappers beating the closer? not beating the closer? have you actually kept tabs on their W/L record or are you just taking their word for it? if you are personally tracking their record, are they profiting against the opener or they profiting against the closer?
                                I can verify that all the records are accurate.

                                I have access to:
                                Time of pick, team picked, line at time of pick, closing line

                                Maybe I need to find a way to use all of that information.
                                Comment
                                • Grind-It-Out
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 05-04-10
                                  • 537

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Maverick22
                                  And this all assumes, each capper comes with his own unique picks...

                                  If a capper "borrows" from another capper your "consensus" becomes just that much weaker...

                                  Not sure how much this happens, but its something to think about.
                                  That's actually a really good point. I know they don't borrow from each other (because they can't see each other's picks), but they may borrow from some third party. Or, multiple cappers may use a very similar handicapping method, which would be almost as bad.
                                  Comment
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