Anyone check my math on Argentina please?

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  • statnerds
    SBR MVP
    • 09-23-09
    • 4047

    #1
    Anyone check my math on Argentina please?
    i like em to win WC.

    5Dimes has them -884 to advance and -210 to win Group.

    i give S Korea no chance.

    took 2 double exact plays on

    Argentina & Greece +320 1 Unit
    Argentina & Nigeria +330 .969696969696969697 Units

    what did i just reduce the -210 to? really no prize given out, just playing with numbers is all.
  • Hybris
    SBR MVP
    • 07-22-09
    • 1023

    #2
    Not sure what you ask for but i guess its the dutching price? +112 do i get..2.12 in decimal.

    With ~51% on +320 and ~49% on +330
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    • blackf1re
      SBR Sharp
      • 01-31-10
      • 487

      #3
      That's correct.

      Problem is South Korea has a much better chance than Greece and especially Nigeria imho.
      Comment
      • djiddish98
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-13-09
        • 345

        #4
        Something seems off with those Exacts based on where the other lines stand. I'm not ruling out a math error.

        A)The no vig % on Argentina winning at -210 is ~66.6%
        B)The no vig % on Greece advancing at 157 is ~38.45% (I haven't done this calc before with the possibility of having 2 results hit, so let me know if this math is off)

        C) the no vig % of Greece winning ~10.14%

        Probability of Argentina winning (A) * probability of Greece being second (B*(1-C)) = probability of exact hitting. This converts into a line of 430.35 334.59
        Last edited by djiddish98; 06-11-10, 08:35 AM. Reason: I'm just going to give up and read a stat book
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        • djiddish98
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-13-09
          • 345

          #5
          As a follow up, I think the Argentina 1st, Nigeria 2nd line has some better value. I'm getting a fair line of 303.987 (which is based on 5Dimes other lines, granted).
          Last edited by djiddish98; 06-11-10, 08:35 AM. Reason: see above
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