I would love to hear from some people on here who are true sports betting professionals. I want to learn how to do this for a living but so many people on here are just focused on picks for the day and betting in dumb situations. I want to learn from a true professional. I want to learn about sharp $, reverse line moves, anticipating line movement, +e.v. spots and individual sportsbook's tendencies. Anyone?
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One piece of advice I would give you is stay with what you know. Example, I don't watch hockey, couldn't name five players (Satan, Doan, Crosby, ) Well couldn't name four players. So I have no business betting on hockey. So if there is nothing on besides hockey that would be a night off. You start playing on things you don't know you will notice you might as well throw your money away.Comment -
Not a professional, but I would start by just pouring over all the info on this website. You can always tail a good player if you don't know much about a sport (ex- pimike in baseball). The key is to build a bankroll so that you can make it through the losses. To do that, put as much $ as you can afford to spare (lose) into a reputable book. Stay away from the local bookie unless you do start to become successful. Don't bet every game on the board just to have action. If you really love a game, you can bet it a little heavier, but don't go nuts on it. Today's "lock" is tomorrow's bankroll buster. Many guys will tell you to bet X% of your bankroll on any given play. That can work if you have a huge bankroll and want to keep it for a long time, but if you are just starting and trying to build, either realize that it will take you a loooong time to get to that point, or you'll have to take more of a chance and bet a little bigger in the beginning. You can do it, but it takes time, discipline, and good luck. Make yourself a goal and then a plan to get there. My goal is to hit 60% of the plays I throw out there. Don't believe all the 70% BS and don't believe most of what you hear. Try to keep your plays to 1-7 per day. I prefer to bet an odd number of plays and try to hit at least one more than I lose. Hope that helps get you started. Don't listen to people who tell you that you can't do it.Comment -
Get a sports betting book.
Leverage, what does he need to know calculus for? Unless you're building a model, it's pretty useless. He needs to learn basic statistics and the concept of EV first.Comment -
Last edited by Peeig; 05-27-10, 10:13 AM. Reason: I wouldn't follow all of the advice, some of it is not gootComment -
First , you surely must follow for a long time some sport events. Especially LIVE. Better not "popular ones".
Second, you must have wide range of quality bets (people in who you trust, who are serious, those kind a bets on which you realy , gladly put money)
Third , if dont have decent bankroll , long long long way needed to build it. If have decent money , than must to learn how to manage that amount. This is the tough one.
There is surely no FORMULA for waht you ask , but try to concentrate on first and second thing here
Cheers !
And good luck...
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Just read BigDaddyHQ, he is a true professional and a legend among men.Comment -
Also, if you have half a brain, you can figure out at least a few pros just by their posts.Comment -
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Professional handicapper apprenticeship program qualification steps:
1) Bet on countless games with no bankroll management-2 years
2) Get frustrated losing and find a tout service online-1 year
3) Discover chase systems and win for a few weeks before going broke- 1 year
4) Learn proper money management and struggle to maintain a 52% win ratio- 2 years
5) Pick up some good books, spend countless hours in the think tank, learn betting techniques and basic probability and statistics math- 2 years
After and only after you have invested enough time in the 8 year program and paid your dues will you be ready to advance to the level of a journeyman handicapper.Comment -
Learn how to program or partner up with someone who does.Comment -
I am not a professional (by choice).
The following is one of the ways that I create favorable wagers for myself using only basic algebra and many years of experience.
In looking for a favorable wager based on last night's Magic game and based on my calculations, I noticed that the odds on the Magic to win the Championship (+1275) were way too high when compared to the individual game and the Conference Odds. Doing some additional calculations and based on my experience of how the odds will change, I estimated that the odds on the Magic to win the Championship would probably be in the 600 range if they won last night’s game. This assumption can be used many ways to create favorable wagers. Here is one example:
Last night when I checked, the Matchbook odds on Magic ML were -171. If someone liked the Magic ML, they could wager 171 to win 100. However, if you knew about (and trusted) my assumptions that the Magic’s Championship odds were an overlay, you would have fared better by making your wager in the Championship market and not in the individual game market. You could have wagered the same 171 in the Championship market at +1275 to win 2,180. If the Magic lost, you are no worse off. However, now that the Magic have won, the current Matchbook odds on the Magic in the Championship market is +650/-660. You can now lay 2,042 @ -660 on the Magic to lose in the Championship market for a guaranteed profit of 138 regardless if the Magic win or lose compared to only 100 profit in the individual game market (less commission if you had to accept but I always try to offer to try to get a better price). Now of course, your overlay assumption has to be valid. In this case, you would have fared worse if the odds to lose in the Championship market were -770 or worse.
So in this example you have essentially made the same wager (Magic ML to win) but by wagering in the Championship market you reaped 38% more profit or essentially turned a -171 wager into a -124 wager.
That’s one way you can try to get the odds to work for you instead of against you.
Joe.Comment -
Never say never. Your belief blinds you from finding other ways to solve the problem. I am not picking on you, I am trying to open your eyes.
I recently just finished closing out my Hockey Championship wagers for a guaranteed 8% increase in bankroll regardless of who wins based on an analysis of the odds similar to what I posted in a previous post above. I cannot name one hockey player and I don't even know the rules. I may have watched 2 hockey games (and not completely) in my life and I have been around awhile.
The objective is to find wagers where you collect more in total on your winning wagers than you lose in total on your losing wagers which may or may not involve any specific knowledge of the event being wagered on.
Joe.Comment -
a professional what?Comment -
I'm a pro belly dancerComment -
The problem here is that nobody who could be considered a professional is going to come on a public chat forum and tell you ways to beat the books that they spent years of time and money trying to learn.
Unless they feel the need to stroke their ego by telling everybody how smart they are!!!
Any true professional who has found ways to beat the books should realize the -EV that would be a result of giving their information away for free to everybody on the web who wants to get rich but does not want to work to earn their success.
If one told you to do this in order to win and every idiot in the world starts doing it, than guess what the books are either going to find counter measures or will simply add a rule giving them the right to confiscate your winnings if you are suspected of doing so.
My suggestion is to spend everyday of the next couple years looking for angles to beat the books, though I am 100% positive that this is not the easy answer that most are looking for
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All of the info you need can be found on this and other forums.Comment -
Go to Offshorebettor and watch the frauds like Beefree, kegger, and Rodeo and his 5 screenames....fade them and you'll definitely be in the dough! $$$$Comment -
The line is the most important thing.
If you are willing to bet on a team in any given matchup, regardless of whether their line is +120, +160 or -110...you are destined for failure.Comment -
Not true, you can make a lot of money betting on sports you know nothing about. If you find a shop that is consistently off market in Swedish Soccer, you hammer it without regard to being to pronounce players names or even without knowing rules of the game.
Key is beating the MARKET, not necessarily knowing what player plays what position for which team.Comment -
Great info....Good stuffComment -
Read all the "Pinnacle pulse" columns. They were written 4 years ago by certain Simon Noble (aka Justin7). It is a treasure trove. I printed them and made a booklet with it. As they are small columns, you can finish each one in 5 mins, so they are easy read. You will familiarize with many concepts in different sports, how the pros bet, etc.Comment -
Of course, I cannot assure you, but justin7 has posted here that he was the content writer for the Pinnacle Pulse.
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Your better off just scalping and middling for a profit. Anybody can do it and there is little to no risk.
Not to mention alot less stressful. Even pros go through long losing droughts that can be very demoralizing.Comment -
