Isn't taking 2:1 like stealing here?

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  • clarkacal
    Restricted User
    • 11-03-09
    • 353

    #1
    Isn't taking 2:1 like stealing here?
    [COLOR=#000000 !important]I made a bet with a friend who used to book that I could beat the spread on 50% or more of every regular season game this upcoming nfl year. There is no vig, just pick winners, ties don't count. It seems to me this is a very good bet and he is on tilt...what do you think? With no vig it seems there is no mathematical disadvantage. The only argument i'm hearing seems to be psycholigical biases when picking being a common downfall. Is this legitimate? I plan on making completely random picks to offset this possibility. Isn't this like getting 2:1 on a coin flip?[/COLOR]
  • noober
    SBR MVP
    • 10-23-09
    • 2012

    #2
    Yes, it is.
    Comment
    • durito
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 07-03-06
      • 13173

      #3
      no, it's like getting +100 on a coin flip
      Comment
      • yisman
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-01-08
        • 75682

        #4
        it's not getting 2:1 on a coin flip. It's getting 1:1 on a coin flip.

        If you made random picks, you'd have a 50% chance.
        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
        [/quote]

        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
        Comment
        • noober
          SBR MVP
          • 10-23-09
          • 2012

          #5
          Originally posted by durito
          no, it's like getting +100 on a coin flip
          Read the title.
          Comment
          • clarkacal
            Restricted User
            • 11-03-09
            • 353

            #6
            What i'm asking is it's a very +ev bet, right?
            Comment
            • durito
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-03-06
              • 13173

              #7
              yes excuse me, i drink not see thread title. he is giving you +200 on a coin flip. yea, you kind of want to bet as much as possible.
              Last edited by durito; 05-25-10, 09:09 PM.
              Comment
              • noober
                SBR MVP
                • 10-23-09
                • 2012

                #8
                According to the Kely Criterion its optimal to bet 50% of your bankroll.
                Comment
                • clarkacal
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-03-09
                  • 353

                  #9
                  Well he offered the bet to me laying 1k and I quickly agreed which I think shocked him. I think he was trying to prove a point and thought $500 was too much action for me. I've got a witness though plus he works for my dad so I can garnish his paycheck if he doesnt want to pay
                  Comment
                  • durito
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 07-03-06
                    • 13173

                    #10
                    additionally, try and get him to let you use some stale lines.
                    Comment
                    • clarkacal
                      Restricted User
                      • 11-03-09
                      • 353

                      #11
                      We agreed that I can choose the book but the pick is from a current line and locked in.
                      Comment
                      • yisman
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 09-01-08
                        • 75682

                        #12
                        you're betting 1:1 against him on whether you can beat the spread 50% of the time or more.

                        It seems to me that isn't like getting 2:1 on a coin flip.
                        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                        [/quote]

                        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                        Comment
                        • clarkacal
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-03-09
                          • 353

                          #13
                          If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?
                          Comment
                          • noober
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-23-09
                            • 2012

                            #14
                            Originally posted by yisman
                            you're betting 1:1 against him on whether you can beat the spread 50% of the time or more.

                            It seems to me that isn't like getting 2:1 on a coin flip.
                            Read the title. He is offered 2:1.
                            Comment
                            • yisman
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 09-01-08
                              • 75682

                              #15
                              Originally posted by clarkacal
                              If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?
                              oh yeah, you're right. It seemed to me you were doing a straight bet.

                              Your friend is stupid.
                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                              [/quote]

                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                              Comment
                              • durito
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-03-06
                                • 13173

                                #16
                                Originally posted by clarkacal
                                We agreed that I can choose the book but the pick is from a current line and locked in.
                                so use sia, Bodog, sportsbetting, etc. line shop vigorously. take the best line you can find on every game.
                                Comment
                                • CursedDiamonds
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 06-18-09
                                  • 7

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by durito
                                  so use sia, Bodog, sportsbetting, etc. line shop vigorously. take the best line you can find on every game.
                                  This is probably the most important point.
                                  Comment
                                  • floridagolfer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-08
                                    • 2757

                                    #18
                                    Of course, it doesn't matter what kind of return you'd be getting if you suck at picking games. If you find a horse that's 8-to-1 and you believe his talent makes him closer to a legit 3-to-1 choice, it's all worthless if it finishes fifth.
                                    Comment
                                    • Peeig
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 02-06-08
                                      • 567

                                      #19
                                      Ask him if I could be his friend too
                                      Comment
                                      • suicidekings
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-23-09
                                        • 9962

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by clarkacal
                                        If I lose I owe $500. If I win he pays me $1k. Am I missing something?
                                        The deal is sound, however it does still depend on your ability to pick winners, and that can be tougher than you think when forced to play every single game.
                                        Comment
                                        • unusialsusp5
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-18-10
                                          • 4198

                                          #21
                                          mathematically even but the human element will probably enter into it. the human mind cannot pick 50% winners but since he has a human mind also one of you will probably go 53-47 or so. but will it be you at 53% or him.
                                          Comment
                                          • SpiderMonkey
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 08-30-09
                                            • 552

                                            #22
                                            I'd say you're getting a little better than 2-1 ... if you base the odds on last year's FAV's SU % - prob around +225.
                                            Comment
                                            • DrunkHorseplayer
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 05-15-10
                                              • 7719

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by clarkacal
                                              Well he offered the bet to me laying 1k and I quickly agreed which I think shocked him. I think he was trying to prove a point and thought $500 was too much action for me. I've got a witness though plus he works for my dad so I can garnish his paycheck if he doesnt want to pay
                                              You can't get anyone's paycheck garnished until you get a court order allowing that; in order to do that, you'll have to present proof of the debt to the court and I don't think gambling debts are enforceable.
                                              Comment
                                              • FreeFall
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 02-20-08
                                                • 3365

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                The deal is sound, however it does still depend on your ability to pick winners, and that can be tougher than you think when forced to play every single game.
                                                if hes betting closing lines he is getting in theory 50/50 on each game ATS. Hopefully he can bet at slow books and beat the closing line by a .5 point or 1 point and be fine. I'd be worried that you would'nt be able to bet enough games and then varience comes into place
                                                Comment
                                                • clarkacal
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 11-03-09
                                                  • 353

                                                  #25
                                                  Actually part of the bet is I have to make a pick every reg season game. Yes there is definitely variance and I'm well aware theres a good chance I lose. I really don't want to analyze and pick for the games, I would rather just do it randomly. Any suggestions? Just flip a coin for each game?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mathdotcom
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 03-24-08
                                                    • 11689

                                                    #26
                                                    Yes

                                                    Flip a coin

                                                    Maybe take all home dogs
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Cookie Monster
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-05-08
                                                      • 2251

                                                      #27
                                                      There are many +3 -120/100. In those you always take the favored side.
                                                      Also should get the pinny lean, just be sure of taking into account the shaded anti Wong teaser lines (+7.5 may go up to +9).
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Flight
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 01-28-09
                                                        • 1979

                                                        #28
                                                        SBR John should offer something like this up for the posters.

                                                        Only way I can win against him.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • statnerds
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-23-09
                                                          • 4047

                                                          #29
                                                          good deal for you

                                                          bad deal for him

                                                          only if you are unbiased enough to bet both faves and dogs. if 65% of more of your plays are on side, you are fukked
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by floridagolfer
                                                            Of course, it doesn't matter what kind of return you'd be getting if you suck at picking games. If you find a horse that's 8-to-1 and you believe his talent makes him closer to a legit 3-to-1 choice, it's all worthless if it finishes fifth.
                                                            Not if you make the same bet over and over it isn't. This guy made a great bet, win or lose.
                                                            Last edited by LT Profits; 05-27-10, 12:00 PM.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • LT Profits
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 10-27-06
                                                              • 90963

                                                              #31
                                                              Yes, at 2-1 odds, it may actually be best to flip a coin on every single game without opinionating anything and then look for the best line on the "coin" play.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jmoiz888
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 08-08-09
                                                                • 138

                                                                #32
                                                                Haha very good bet for you
                                                                Comment
                                                                • clarkacal
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-03-09
                                                                  • 353

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Unfortunately there is no line shopping. We agreed I have to use closing lines at one book the entire season so its easier to keep track of. It won't matter what book since Ill be flipping a coin anyway..
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EvilDaveJr
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 10-20-09
                                                                    • 1

                                                                    #34
                                                                    1. pick bodog or sia. 2. compare the pinnacle line to the bodog/sia line. 3. collect the $1000.

                                                                    I'm not sure how big a favorite you are, but I think it could be as high as 10/1 or 20/1 or possibly even higher. Oh, and these two books shade favorites, so, you'll be picking almost exclusively underdogs. You may even consider making additional bets offering to pick 51% or 52%, because it will be that easy!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • clarkacal
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-03-09
                                                                      • 353

                                                                      #35
                                                                      After nfl week 1 with this bet I am 6-9-1...
                                                                      Comment
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