Is motivation important in the MLB?

[BJ1945]

My gut tells me that unlike the NBA or NFL where intensity overrides talent, in the MLB, trying harder doesn't pay dividends. In fact, trying too hard can produce negative results.

Any comments?
















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[ForgetWallStreet]

My gut tells me that unlike the NBA or NFL where intensity overrides talent, in the MLB, trying harder doesn't pay dividends. In fact, trying too hard can produce negative results.

Any comments?

My gut is telling me that you should ignore your gut.

[talnted]

do you have data to prove that trying too hard delivers poor results?

[Sawyer]

Of course it's important! Home teams usually play better in 2nd game (or 3rd game if they lost first two games) if they lost first one.

[DukeJohn]

My gut tells me that unlike the NBA or NFL where intensity overrides talent, in the MLB, trying harder doesn't pay dividends. In fact, trying too hard can produce negative results.

Any comments?

do you have data to prove that trying too hard delivers poor results?

As talnted said without being a able to quantify the data this question really can't be answered to a degree of certainty. However, I will say it sure helps the JM systems and others to sell their products. So whether there is any truth or not, a lot of people seem to believe as you.

[durito]

How do you model motivation?

[blackbox]

Used to-when LA PLAYED SF. nowadays it is more like personal goals-even the players say this is a business.

[Justin7]

Of course it's important! Home teams usually play better in 2nd game (or 3rd game if they lost first two games) if they lost first one.

do you have stats to show this?

[Dark Horse]

It's important. But not as in the NBA. In the NBA an increase in motivation very commonly translates into a team going on a run.

In baseball there are plenty of hitters who's batting percentage goes up with runners on base. But you would need to know who they are.

And for doubleheaders I always wait for the result in the first game. More often than not the teams split the two games.

And, of course, there is negative motivation, like nervous relief pitchers who suddenly can't throw a strike, except right over the middle of the plate. TV shows the body language and the face, so if you can pick that up before the damage is done it's great for live betting.

[aggieshawn]

My gut is telling me that you should ignore your gut.

beautiful comment.

[ForgetWallStreet]

It's important. But not as in the NBA. In the NBA an increase in motivation very commonly translates into a team going on a run.

In baseball there are plenty of hitters who's batting percentage goes up with runners on base. But you would need to know who they are.

And for doubleheaders I always wait for the result in the first game. More often than not the teams split the two games.

And, of course, there is negative motivation, like nervous relief pitchers who suddenly can't throw a strike, except right over the middle of the plate. TV shows the body language and the face, so if you can pick that up before the damage is done it's great for live betting.

Going to ignore the rest, but please, please, please tell me you've actually submitted a live wager based on the body language of a pitcher.

[Thremp]

It's important. But not as in the NBA. In the NBA an increase in motivation very commonly translates into a team going on a run. In baseball there are plenty of hitters who's batting percentage goes up with runners on base. But you would need to know who they are. And for doubleheaders I always wait for the result in the first game. More often than not the teams split the two games. And, of course, there is negative motivation, like nervous relief pitchers who suddenly can't throw a strike, except right over the middle of the plate. TV shows the body language and the face, so if you can pick that up before the damage is done it's great for live betting.

Ignoring any sort of correlation with other stats (IE Javier Jazquez is a known imploder etc) What exactly would lead you to the conclusion that certain ballplayers are selfish ****s who lower their level of effort based on a lower probability of a RBI?

[BJ1945]

No data. That's why I said "gut" feeling.

do you have data to prove that trying too hard delivers poor results?

However, I've heard it commonly said that a player is not performing well because he is trying too hard and that he should let the game come to him - as an example.

[Dark Horse]

Going to ignore the rest, but please, please, please tell me you've actually submitted a live wager based on the body language of a pitcher.

Absolutely.

I suppose motivational approaches are not the most comfortable to the math geeks in the think tank.

[roasthawg]

I notice the biggest "motivational" factor in the NBA myself. It doesn't show up as much in baseball (from the standpoint of the team as a whole).

[ohreally]

Of course it's important! Home teams usually play better in 2nd game (or 3rd game if they lost first two games) if they lost first one.

do you have stats to show this?

Not really.

Home teams that won the first game of a series won the second 1485 of 2619 times (56.7%)
and home teams that lost the first game of a series won the second only 1228 of 2262 times (54.3%).

And home teams that lost the first 2 games of a series won the third 512 of 941 times (54.4%),
but home teams that won the first 2 games of a series won the third 785 of 1384 times (56.7%).

Stats since 2004 season.

[fletch49]

Thanks ohreally! Good stats. What about this scenario...same situations but home team is winning at 55%+ for the season and visiting team is winning at 45% or less for the season. I'll bet the home team has a greater win percentage in game 2 after losing game one. Also, reverse the win percentages and see what comes out. Can you do this for me ohreally. I really would like to see this in hard data. Thanks!!

[DukeJohn]

Thanks ohreally! Good stats. What about this scenario...same situations but home team is winning at 55%+ for the season and visiting team is winning at 45% or less for the season. I'll bet the home team has a greater win percentage in game 2 after losing game one. Also, reverse the win percentages and see what comes out. Can you do this for me ohreally. I really would like to see this in hard data. Thanks!!

Even if this information was posted for you, you would then have to take into account the line and you can bet nearly every team that is winning 55% or greater for the season is going to be the favorite, especially at home, and thus negate any positive results from straight win vs loss record.

[fletch49]

Excellent point DukeJohn! I need to check how this is doing this season since I do have that data in excel. Then see how they are doing in plus or minus units.

[ohreally]

Thanks ohreally! Good stats. What about this scenario...same situations but home team is winning at 55%+ for the season and visiting team is winning at 45% or less for the season. I'll bet the home team has a greater win percentage in game 2 after losing game one. Also, reverse the win percentages and see what comes out. Can you do this for me ohreally. I really would like to see this in hard data. Thanks!!

If you add the percentages, the 55%+ home team that lost the first game won the second game 64 of 93 times (68.8%), but with an average line of -180.

Reversed, the 45% or less home team that lost the first game won the second game 155 of 340 times (45.6%) with a average line of +110.

[Bsims]

Baseball is a game of individual match ups, hitter versus pitcher. There are about 60-100 of these per game. The results of the game are a function of how these match ups evolve.

If one assumes that motivation is a factor, then it seems to me that implies there are situations where motivation is not a factor. This would imply that a hitter in these situations might not be trying as hard to hit a pitch as in other situations. I doubt this.

















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[fletch49]

Take the 55%+ home team

If you add the percentages, the 55%+ home team that lost the first game won the second game 64 of 93 times (68.8%), but with an average line of -180.

Reversed, the 45% or less home team that lost the first game won the second game 155 of 340 times (45.6%) with a average line of +110.

Using these stats the home teams at 55%+ would have +11.80 units if the average odds were -180!
Using these stats the home teams at 45%- would have -2.55 units if the average odds were +110!

[Sawyer]

do you have stats to show this?

Check out Houstonfan's Simple Home Chase system in Statfox

[juuso]

Motivation is close to impossible to quantify in early to mid-season baseball. It can be a factor in late season, when teams are making play off runs and teams out of contention are trying out new players and pitchers from their farm teams.

[skrtelfan]

Not really.

Home teams that won the first game of a series won the second 1485 of 2619 times (56.7%)
and home teams that lost the first game of a series won the second only 1228 of 2262 times (54.3%).

And home teams that lost the first 2 games of a series won the third 512 of 941 times (54.4%),
but home teams that won the first 2 games of a series won the third 785 of 1384 times (56.7%).

Stats since 2004 season.

The better team is more likely to have won the first game or the first two games, so we'd expect a bit of a discrepancy. The ROI of betting the team that won vs the team that lost is more important than the aggregate win percentage.

[sharpcat]

Teams who are in a slump may be more likely to play a more aggressive strategy, but players motivation alone probably does not have as much of an impact.