im wondering
3, 5, or 7 day stats
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monostereoSBR Hustler
- 04-20-10
- 55
#71Comment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#72I'm 100% sure that if you can accurately calculate "the norm" (IE the true talent level of each team) that all these other issues basically become moot and you'd have to be over 99% retarded at the core to not absolutely destroy sports betting.Comment -
Maverick22SBR Wise Guy
- 04-10-10
- 807
#73That may be true.
However, taking and comparing season avg, 31 day avg, and 5-7 game average has to have some measurable worth. Be it small or gargantuan, it has some value.
If time shows the averages don't have much bearing... these comparisons will be weeded out through attrition.Comment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#74Why? If I'm playing a coin flipping game, the only possible thing that can be introduced by these sort of averages is nonsense. Do you really believe that a 30PA sample tells you something? If so, I'd like to make wagers with you. Many wagers. For large sums of money.Comment -
Maverick22SBR Wise Guy
- 04-10-10
- 807
#75A ponder...
I don't think flipping a coin is a parallel to this situation...
I'll offer up blackjack as a comparison...
If you playing a 6 shoe'd deck. And 15 cards with a value of ten are dealt from a newly shuffled deck... That tells you the number of tens dealt...and inherently...the number left in the deck...
If you know many were dealt in the last 30 hands... You'd know still how many 10's were left, and how many dealt...
And if you counted how many were dealt in the last 7 hands...
The differences in these three values would tell you how well the deck was shuffled...
If the rate of 10's to All Cards dealt stays the same...it would mean they are evenly distributed... if they are different...just means they aren't shuffled "perfectly"
Not sure how I would use this information if I am sitting down at the blackjack table with a drink in my hand...but it tells you something...
Insignificant or not...
Or...lol...my math could be off...Comment -
MonkeyF0ckerSBR Posting Legend
- 06-12-07
- 12144
#76That's not how card counting works. You have a running count of the entire shoe. You don't weigh your last X amount of hands. If you did, you'd have disasterous results. It's a solid analogy actually. Unfortunately, it works against the point you're trying to make.Comment -
Maverick22SBR Wise Guy
- 04-10-10
- 807
#77LOL. I know how to count cards (Using the Hi-Lo Method)
...And I personally wouldn't ONLY consider the number of tens dealt...
When i was trying to find an example of something where you could track "randomness" or variance, the dealt cards was the first thing that came to mind (That is... after the thoughts of porn and large breasted women).
And I will humbly accept your back handed complimentLast edited by Maverick22; 04-27-10, 03:35 AM.Comment -
username474SBR Sharp
- 01-09-09
- 480
#78I am game. Design some props that focus on 30 PA's or batter vs pitcher format. 5k betting limits and -105 vig for your troubles. PM if you have any interest. I have money at most books and at fulltilt, we could do player to player transfers to settle up.Comment -
rfr3shSBR Posting Legend
- 11-07-09
- 10229
#79so you are suggesting that there is relevanceComment -
ThrempSBR MVP
- 07-23-07
- 2067
#81How exactly would you propose separating my own incompetence at being a baseball prop market maker from what 30 PAs samples tell us.Comment -
username474SBR Sharp
- 01-09-09
- 480
#82I was not taking a shot at you personally. But if you wanted to create some props based on what a player will or will not do over 30ab I would be more then happy to lay vig.Comment
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