mlb extra innings question

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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    mlb extra innings question
    If the game is tied in the end of the 8th or 9th inning:

    How often does the home team win by MORE than 1 run?
  • floridagolfer
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-08
    • 2757

    #2
    I'm just guessing, but I'd say it's probably about 10 percent.

    EDIT: That guess might actually be pretty good. I just went back and looked at a period of two months from the 2009 season. Of 50 extra-inning games, five (10 percent) were won by the home team by more than one run. Granted, this is a small sampling.
    Last edited by floridagolfer; 04-14-10, 01:31 PM.
    Comment
    • TomG
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-29-07
      • 500

      #3
      Given that the game was tied after 8 innings of play, the home team won by two or more runs 4.92% of the time.
      Comment
      • Justin7
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-31-06
        • 8577

        #4
        Originally posted by TomG
        Given that the game was tied after 8 innings of play, the home team won by two or more runs 4.92% of the time.
        That sounds reasonable. What is your source, or what years did you look at?

        Any idea how often the home team won if tied at the end of 8?
        Comment
        • flyingillini
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 41219

          #5
          This is very interesting and I would like to hear more about this. Facts and real stats.
          המוסד‎
          המוסד למודיעין ולתפקידים מיוחדים‎
          Comment
          • TomG
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-29-07
            • 500

            #6
            Originally posted by Justin7
            That sounds reasonable. What is your source, or what years did you look at?

            Any idea how often the home team won if tied at the end of 8?
            I used a database of MLB games from 1996 thru 2007 (courtesy of http://www.retrosheet.org/). To drill down into the results...

            There are 28,058 games in the database. Of those, the game was tied after 8 innings in 2,621 (9.34%) of them.

            Of the games that were tied after 8 innings of play, the home team won 1,361 (51.93%).

            Of those games...

            1,232 were won by 1 run (47.00%)
            71 were won by 2 runs (2.71%)
            49 were won by 3 runs (1.87%)
            9 were won by 4 runs (0.34%)
            Comment
            • Justin7
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-31-06
              • 8577

              #7
              Delicious. You're helping make my MLB live betting spreadsheet that much better.

              The trickiest part of live betting is when you have potential tie-situations. For example, you are weighing the odds of over 4.5 total runs scored with 2 innings left. The price changes drastically if the score is 2-1 vs 3-0.
              Comment
              • Club
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-18-09
                • 703

                #8
                What are you looking to do? Bet the +1.5 live line assuming that the odds, while not very good, won't shift far enough to reflect how rarely the home team wins by 2 or more? Assuming when the game is tied after 8 and the home team wins by 2 or more 5% of the time, at what odds would you no longer take the +1.5 live line?
                Comment
                • IrishTim
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 07-23-09
                  • 983

                  #9
                  Mind sharing with us where you're doing the MLB live betting, Justin? Matchbook or somewhere else?
                  Comment
                  • skrtelfan
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-09-08
                    • 1913

                    #10
                    I'd guess he's betting on Pinnacle, because he posted elsewhere praising Pinnacle's live betting.

                    I've been taking a look at MB's live betting but there doesn't seem to be much liquidity.
                    Comment
                    • Pancho sanza
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-18-07
                      • 386

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Justin7
                      If the game is tied in the end of the 8th or 9th inning:

                      How often does the home team win by MORE than 1 run?
                      Tied after 8 4.42 %
                      Tied after 9 4.79 %

                      Covers about 33 years worth of games
                      Comment
                      • Club
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-18-09
                        • 703

                        #12
                        So without getting into other factors like bullpen issues, home team more likely to hit home runs vs. playing small ball and manufacturing a run, whether a team decided not to start some key players who are available on the bench to play late, etc, at those percentages, what are the fair +1.5 live odds when the game is tied after 8?
                        Comment
                        • dinaro7
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 12-06-09
                          • 888

                          #13
                          18.5 percent
                          Comment
                          • Justin7
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 07-31-06
                            • 8577

                            #14
                            Club,

                            Fair odds on Visitor+1.5 would be about -2000 at that point.
                            Comment
                            • IrishTim
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 07-23-09
                              • 983

                              #15
                              J7, what do you use as your "MinEdge" (to use Stanford Wong's language) when live betting? I assume that you wouldn't bet the road team -1950 in that situation.
                              Comment
                              • Rich Boy
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-01-09
                                • 9714

                                #16
                                Surprised nobody has asked this question yet.

                                If the game is tied after 8 innings, what % of games does the road team win by exactly 1 run.
                                Comment
                                • Pancho sanza
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 10-18-07
                                  • 386

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Rich Boy
                                  Surprised nobody has asked this question yet.

                                  If the game is tied after 8 innings, what % of games does the road team win by exactly 1 run.
                                  A little over 26 % overall.

                                  Of course it will vary by moneyline.
                                  Comment
                                  • Rich Boy
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-01-09
                                    • 9714

                                    #18
                                    Also, what percent of games tied after 8 innings end with a 1 run difference? (ie a 1 run game, doesnt matter who wins)
                                    Comment
                                    • Pancho sanza
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-18-07
                                      • 386

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by rich boy
                                      also, what percent of games tied after 8 innings end with a 1 run difference? (ie a 1 run game, doesnt matter who wins)
                                      73.3 %
                                      Comment
                                      • midnight777
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 09-10-09
                                        • 504

                                        #20
                                        i would say the hometeam wins a lot
                                        Comment
                                        • lyon804
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-02-09
                                          • 6526

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by TomG
                                          I used a database of MLB games from 1996 thru 2007 (courtesy of http://www.retrosheet.org/). To drill down into the results...

                                          There are 28,058 games in the database. Of those, the game was tied after 8 innings in 2,621 (9.34%) of them.

                                          Of the games that were tied after 8 innings of play, the home team won 1,361 (51.93%).

                                          Of those games...

                                          1,232 were won by 1 run (47.00%)
                                          71 were won by 2 runs (2.71%)
                                          49 were won by 3 runs (1.87%)
                                          9 were won by 4 runs (0.34%)



                                          Thanks for that info.
                                          Comment
                                          • Rufus
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 03-28-08
                                            • 107

                                            #22
                                            I have a MLB live betting model I spent a few months developing in early '09 that I have had success with and I've found--at least betting at Pinny, where they take decent volume--that they always take down run line and total bets when the game is tied after 8 innings. All you're seeing at that point is a moneyline. Similarly, if its a 7-2 game going into the 9th, they're not booking a ML but rather just a RL and total. Anyway, so much is influenced by lineup position, and specific relief pitchers at that point.

                                            Justin, I'm curious how you can be building a live betting model without having a large play-by-play database?
                                            Comment
                                            • danger
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 03-15-09
                                              • 39

                                              #23
                                              I have retrosheet data from 1970 - 2009.

                                              85,211 games,
                                              8,710 tied after 8 innings (10.2%)

                                              Winning margin by the home_team was
                                              Code:
                                              -13 1
                                              -9  2
                                              -8  4
                                              -7  17
                                              -6  49
                                              -5  104
                                              -4  212
                                              -3  512
                                              -2  1016
                                              -1  2270
                                               0  18
                                               1  4090
                                               2  255
                                               3  123
                                               4  37
                                              
                                              Away: 4187 (46.96%)
                                              Tie: 18
                                              Home: 4505 (51.72%)
                                              Home -1.5: 415 (4.76%)
                                              Comment
                                              • JGSB
                                                SBR Rookie
                                                • 06-10-10
                                                • 10

                                                #24
                                                That's cool, Pretty close margin.
                                                Comment
                                                • Justin7
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-31-06
                                                  • 8577

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Rufus
                                                  I have a MLB live betting model I spent a few months developing in early '09 that I have had success with and I've found--at least betting at Pinny, where they take decent volume--that they always take down run line and total bets when the game is tied after 8 innings. All you're seeing at that point is a moneyline. Similarly, if its a 7-2 game going into the 9th, they're not booking a ML but rather just a RL and total. Anyway, so much is influenced by lineup position, and specific relief pitchers at that point.

                                                  Justin, I'm curious how you can be building a live betting model without having a large play-by-play database?
                                                  Tango's "The book" pretty much gives you a whole live-betting model.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Justin7
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 07-31-06
                                                    • 8577

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by IrishTim
                                                    J7, what do you use as your "MinEdge" (to use Stanford Wong's language) when live betting? I assume that you wouldn't bet the road team -1950 in that situation.
                                                    If I thought the fair price was -2000, I'd probably want to see -1300 or better.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • blix177
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 09-20-08
                                                      • 1520

                                                      #27
                                                      I think it matters who are batting coming up.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Noelani_06
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 06-10-10
                                                        • 18

                                                        #28
                                                        Its probably not worth betting on I would guess...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • patswin
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-05-06
                                                          • 1794

                                                          #29
                                                          good stuff
                                                          Comment
                                                          • empty cookie jar
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 05-14-10
                                                            • 876

                                                            #30
                                                            very interesting.....it seems there are a million angles i still haven't thought of
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Sawyer
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 06-01-09
                                                              • 7749

                                                              #31
                                                              Interesting
                                                              Comment
                                                              • therber2
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 12-22-08
                                                                • 3715

                                                                #32
                                                                Aren't we in a bit of a decline right now for runs scored after the roids era? Might want to take this issue into account. Think about it; is there a reason why we've had 3 perfect games and 2 or maybe more close ones in the last 2 seasons? Yes...no roids So this should help your bet, but I would guess that MLB may be due for a high general volume of runs scored.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 19th Hole
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 03-22-09
                                                                  • 18942

                                                                  #33
                                                                  On another note....The runliline (-1.5) is viable because over 70% of MLB games are decided by
                                                                  2 or more runs.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Thomas_Garber
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 11-19-09
                                                                    • 364

                                                                    #34
                                                                    You won't be able to beat the book via live betting because books will set the line good. But if you are using exchange, you might be able to act like your own bookie and get some suckers in.
                                                                    Comment
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