1. #36
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheMoneyShot View Post
    Let me rephrase what I said.... opening line dogs had huge advantage College Football... NFL and NBA. I don't know what the cause of it is... but it's screwing around with the way I wager. I'm almost like a deer in headlights. I've wagered the least amount of times in 2018.

    Typically... the line would always open up... and you'd gain 0.5 -1.5 points on the favorite... within 2-3 hours. The last 3-4 months... line opens and everyone is hammering the dog immediately. So, there must be whales out there... that know value on the dog.... and they are hammering it.

    I'm not saying every game on the board... must be my luck? It's just the games that I run into. And when I'm running good... if the play isn't there... I just walk away and don't wager for the day. I don't like to force things.
    I think your point is a good one. Yes, there was a time when the openers would come out + a sophisticated bettor would identify value on several Dogs. A lot of OLD SCHOOL bettors still operate w/ an idea of "value is on the Dogs."

    With that in mind, more recent season databases will show that the Fav/Dog balance is very close to 50/50. If Old-school bettors are blindly grabbing the points...then the Dog they're taking often has no value at all.

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  2. #37
    danshan11
    I am good at coin flips, I really am!
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    Join Date: 07-08-17
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    Everyone does this differently but all really trying to achieve the same results
    Guy A likes the Raiders +6 because obviously he thinks that +6 is enough to win
    Guy B likes the Raiders +6 because his model shows the Raiders at +5.5 or better
    Results here is where we all kind of go different directions
    Guy A is happy because the Raiders lose by 3
    Guy B is happy because the Raiders close at +4 and he believes the wins will come by "beating the line"
    now there is a Guy C and he does not really care what the line is he just likes the Raiders, Guy C only cares if he wins and he does not even watch the line!
    If the Raider line closes at +8 A and B are not too excited because they assume they probably were wrong on that game
    C is still happy as long as the Raiders cover.
    I mean these are general of course, some people are a mix of all 3 and some people do it completely different.
    This is why most guys disagree about this subject.
    The data does show that both ways are possible and there is concrete evidence to support both. The only issue I have with winner pickers is they could be lucky and it can really take a long time to figure that out but other than that play on, play on!

    I think the best way to get a good idea of how talented you are in sports handicapping is not CLV or wins and losses it is being able to set fair lines.
    Take 20 games and before any lines come out publicly handicap them with lines
    Raiders Broncos dont say Broncos cover say Broncos -5 and so on, do that for 20 or so games more the merrier and if you are getting within a 1pt or 2 of the lines when they come out, you are "sharp" sorry for lack of a better word.
    Last edited by danshan11; 01-07-19 at 10:03 AM.

  3. #38
    chico2663
    chico2663's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-02-10
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckyTheGoat View Post
    First, let's define it. BTCL value = Beat the Closing Line value.

    It's simply a measure of the difference btw the # on your ticket and the AVERAGE closing line on that event. Sport doesn't matter, and it can be applied to spread or moneyline. Count up your BTCL net over several plays (like 1000+), and that's your average BTCL value.

    1) Let's start w/ the theory end. Is BTCL value the beginning + the end? IE, do you need to have BTCL value to clear a profit over time?

    2) If it's important, how do u go about getting BTCL value? Line-shopping would be one way, but I'd argue that lines move more in unison in the era of quick technology. 2nd way would be modelling, where your Model Indication differs from the current market #.

    After this simple presentation, is there anything I'm missing? If BTCL is important, on what sports is BTCL hugely critical? Good luck out there, boys.
    chucky i have enough problem with bmm. beating my meat. How the fukk am i going to btcl?

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