Stats for Baseball betting

**Maverick22** · 04-11-10, 09:15 PM

Where will you get this data from? And you gonna be it game by game? or as a rolling season average/total?

**Milwaukee** · 04-12-10, 03:47 AM

I have the formula for this stats

**gryfyn1** · 04-12-10, 05:42 AM

Originally posted by Maverick22

Where will you get this data from? And you gonna be it game by game? or as a rolling season average/total?

Fangraphs.com

MLB Stats, Scores, History, & Records | Baseball-Reference.com

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

Complete source for baseball history including complete major league player, team, and league stats, awards, records, leaders, rookies and scores.

Front Page | Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/

are the most popular

**Milwaukee** · 04-12-10, 08:09 AM

Ok.....but the question are:

What a the best stats for MLB betting? What do you use for stats if you make a spreadsheet to betting MLB?

**Shelton** · 04-12-10, 08:18 AM

i like baseball betting thx

**JC 420** · 04-12-10, 08:32 AM

i would say era vs....also pitcher vs team

**ScreaminPain** · 04-12-10, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by Milwaukee

I have an question to the following stats:

xERA
FIP ERA
DER
BABIP
DIPS
LOB%

If you make a line for a MLB play to you use one of this stats?

I use FIPERA with the following stats. IP's, K's, BB's, HBP's,HR's. These stats are derived from H/A, Overall, Last 3, and Day/night data sets.

I calculate the number of innings a particular pitcher usually pitches /game

I calculate the number of innings a particular teams BULLPEN usually pitches /gm

I calculate the UNEARNED RUNS for each team

I factor the "PARK FACTOR" for each individual team.

When brought together in a spreadsheet, I use POISSON to calculate the line.

Good Luck on your action....

**dwaechte** · 04-12-10, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by Milwaukee

Ok.....but the question are:

What a the best stats for MLB betting? What do you use for stats if you make a spreadsheet to betting MLB?

Unfortunately at this point it's not as simple as simply looking at one or two of the most "hidden" predictive stats and making a profit. It should be obvious that using the most advanced stats that are publicly available(such as the ones mentioned) is the best starting point, and from there it's up to you to find something of value with them.

**Milwaukee** · 04-12-10, 06:41 PM

I have another question to the Pythagorean theorem:

I will bet the game NY Yankees - Boston

Boston hat 18 RS (runs scored) and 12 RA (Runs Allowed)
and won 3 games and lose 2 games

NY Yankees hat 23 RS and 16 RA
and won 4 games and lose 1 games

How can I use the Pythagorean theorem?

How can I make the line for this game?

**Justin7** · 04-12-10, 07:44 PM

I would be very careful using this year's stats to make projections for this year. Projections are typically more accurate than in-season stats. I lost 200k from making a similar mistake about 5 years ago.

**Hounds** · 04-12-10, 07:47 PM

This is an absolutely must read in my opinion on judging a pitcher's effectiveness when comparing ERA to the actual components from which ERA are derived: http://www.ussmariner.com/2006/08/29...itcher-talent/.

**Hounds** · 04-12-10, 07:53 PM

I calculate the number of innings a particular teams BULLPEN usually pitches /gm

I'm in the process of doing something similar, but I want to differentiate relievers based upon availability and quality. I have the quality part covered, but I'm struggling with the availability part. I'm thinking that I will need to research the tendencies of all 30 teams... I'm open to any ideas as this process is going to be very time-consuming and possibly not useful...

**Maverick22** · 04-12-10, 09:54 PM

Justin, is it ok. To make a model derived using last years statistics, but applying that model this year?

**Maverick22** · 04-12-10, 09:56 PM

Hounds, how do you have your data represented?

If it is in a database, couldnt you run a query that filters all the bullpen pitchers who pitched in the series to date and/or filtering by pitchers pitching in the last maybe 3-5 rolling days?

If its in a spreadsheet...I wouldn't know a simple way to do it.

**Hounds** · 04-13-10, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by Maverick22

Hounds, how do you have your data represented?

If it is in a database, couldnt you run a query that filters all the bullpen pitchers who pitched in the series to date and/or filtering by pitchers pitching in the last maybe 3-5 rolling days?

If its in a spreadsheet...I wouldn't know a simple way to do it.

i toyed with the idea of learning the ins and outs of databases (MYSQL and Access) after i found the retrosheet data. i lost patience, however, and reverted to Excel. i can do pretty much the same things on it. the only problem with the retrosheet data is it doesn't have gambling lines. i imported all the lines from 2000-2009 from statfox and had just finished an excel spreadsheet with relevant retrosheet data and statfox lines/over-unders when the 2010 season started. at that point and because of time limitations, i had to switch focus to tracking this year's results instead of backtesting for angles and guidelines. anyways, i've decided to manually go through the game logs on fangraphs for this season's games so far in order to try and discern individual manager/team tendencies in regard to their relievers. hopefully i'll be caught up by sometime early next week. i'm cautiously optimistic that this approach could yield some golden nuggets. and hell, even if i spend this season simply learning and don't really gamble that much, i'm ok with it. i'm turning more risk averse as i age and i really want a firm grasp and understanding of what i'm trying to accomplish and an expected ROI instead of betting for the thrill of it.

this site has a very basic summary of all MLB team closer/reliever status: http://www.scoutingbook.com/closers/

**Justin7** · 04-13-10, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Maverick22

Justin, is it ok. To make a model derived using last years statistics, but applying that model this year?

Projections work better than 1 year's statistics. If you have less than 3 years, you're better off using a league average for a player (which sounds crazy).

**Raleigh77** · 04-13-10, 12:33 PM

anyone use the base runs formula, there was a gentleman who posted at covers who made big change last year using it.

**ScreaminPain** · 04-13-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by Hounds

I'm in the process of doing something similar, but I want to differentiate relievers based upon availability and quality. I have the quality part covered, but I'm struggling with the availability part. I'm thinking that I will need to research the tendencies of all 30 teams... I'm open to any ideas as this process is going to be very time-consuming and possibly not useful...

I think you'll find http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/bullpen.pl helpful.

Good Luck on your endeavor....

**Hounds** · 04-13-10, 01:55 PM

I think you'll find http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/bullpen.pl helpful.

sweet! tyvm--

**Maverick22** · 04-14-10, 02:30 AM

Hounds, you proficient at programming any (Java)? If so, there is something we can work out (for you getting your daily game odds)

**Thremp** · 04-14-10, 09:02 AM

I wouldn't follow any of J7's advice in this thread (that isn't completely self-evident), nor would I consider betting anything but openers (and even those very sparingly) with the information here.

This type of information is published by close to half a dozen widely available websites. Its like trying to get an edge on NFL thinking that you can read Football Outsiders. Closing baseball lines are very efficient. You should focus on beating that price (to restate something obvious).

**Hounds** · 04-14-10, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Raleigh77

anyone use the base runs formula, there was a gentleman who posted at covers who made big change last year using it.

i'm familiar with a bunch of the run estimators, but when i was messing around with them, i failed to see how they could be used for betting individual games. i actually back tested a ton of run estimators both linear and dynamic with 2002 data. although baseruns is definitely the most widely accepted in the saber community, if you can accurately predict h, bb, hr, sb, cs, dp, and ab, then they all get fairly close to the final score of the game usually. the aspect that i couldn't solve was how to accurately predict all of the components that the formula needs....

**Hounds** · 04-14-10, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by Maverick22

Hounds, you proficient at programming any (Java)? If so, there is something we can work out (for you getting your daily game odds)

negatory... i f'd up in school and took all liberal arts classes.... history is damn interesting, but not so useful....

**Maverick22** · 04-14-10, 11:40 PM

ehhh happens. I can get you the (closing) lines for all the past games. Wave something pretty in my face. And i'll get it for you. and even get you the next two weeks worth...

**Thremp** · 04-15-10, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Projections work better than 1 year's statistics. If you have less than 3 years, you're better off using a league average for a player (which sounds crazy).

I just wanna quote this for how patently ****ing horrible it is.

**Shelton** · 04-15-10, 07:11 PM

good luck good luck

**Justin7** · 04-15-10, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

I just wanna quote this for how patently ****ing horrible it is.

the point of this... if you are using only this year's stats, you'll get buried. Using one season's stats is a horrible idea, and if you're using less than one season, well...

**thechaoz** · 04-16-10, 01:54 AM

Well Thremp what would be the optimal approach then? This is coming form someone who takes this very seriously and any input you had would be greatly appreciated.

**Thremp** · 04-16-10, 09:01 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

the point of this... if you are using only this year's stats, you'll get buried. Using one season's stats is a horrible idea, and if you're using less than one season, well...

I know you fancy congratulations from the masses, but perhaps you should be more clear with your point. This has nothing to do with your original comment other than restate a completely obvious fact, and creates a false dichotomy where you are in some parallel universe that has either current season stats or league average. The will all be moot in a few years as the sample sizes from PitchFX and HitFX will make gauging the ebb and flow of pitcher/batter talent so much easier (Ever wonder why Ervin Santana got good that one year?)

Originally posted by thechaoz

Well Thremp what would be the optimal approach then? This is coming form someone who takes this very seriously and any input you had would be greatly appreciated.

I don't handicap baseball, and if I did, I most certainly would not be posting on a message board about the "optimal approach". But to suggest something as overtly **** stupid as pretending Timmay Lincecum/Evan Longoria are league average players deserves to be pointed out and ridiculed. Its peer review to hopefully prevent them from embarrassing themselves publicly and spreading more misinformation.