Tomato is the man.
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How do BW use the +1.5 line to roll over money?Comment -
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Let me guess . Dogs won around the same # of games by 1 run (2243) Because total games within 1 run is just under 30% . If i am right then taking a dog straight up to win presents a better value cause it presents + # .
Betting blindly +1.5 or even selecting games is a suicide(my opinion) most of the time you would pay high juice . And really this road leads no where .
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Commission must be factored in as that impacts your profits! I agree with Vitalyo's comment above.Comment -
From Pinnacle Pulse, 2006
How often does a run line favorite win by exactly one run? This is actually a very complicated question that every sportsbook posting early openers must address. Pinnacle Sports book uses a simple conversion chart that uses the moneyline and the game total to give a run line price. While not perfect, it gets us fairly close to the right price (and sharp players betting overnight lines get it in shape for us relatively inexpensively).
The most important factor for determining a fair price on a run line is whether the home team is favored and the visitor is getting +1.5 runs. Home teams win several more 1-run games than visiting teams. The reason for this is simply that games end anytime the home team has a lead entering the bottom of the ninth inning.
If the game is tied at the end of 9 innings, there's only a 7% chance the home team will win by more than 1 run. On the other hand, a visiting team that scores 1 run will usually attempt to continue scoring to build up a cushion. This one difference makes a huge difference in pricing all told, home teams win 1-run games about 17% of the time, while the visitors manage to win by 1-run just 11% of the time.
Another important factor when pricing a run line is the game total. The lower the total, the more likely a game will end as a 1-run game for the favorite. While a game total in no way guarantees that many runs will be scored, it's a pretty good indicator of how much offense there will be in a game.
For example a contest between strong pitching teams may have a game total of 7 runs. Assuming the home team wins and only 7 runs are scored, there are only four possible scores: 4-3; 5-2; 6-1 and 7-0. On the other hand, if 11 runs are scored, there are six possible winning scores for the home
team: 11-0; 10-1; 9-2; 8-3; 7-4 and 6-5 there are 50% more ways for the home team to win. Oddly enough, these lower-totaled games see home teams win by 1 run nearly 50% more often than games with totals above 11.
Another vital factor to consider is how heavily a team is favored. Teams that are heavily favored are more likely to win by exactly 1 than a team closer to Pick'em. This is almost counter-intuitive because one expects good teams to blow out weaker teams. On the flip-side, a team has to win the game before it can win by exactly one. The numbers don't lie and there is more value playing the run line against large favorites.
To get an edge against the linesmakers at sportsbooks, you should also take a look at the relief pitching for both teams. If the game is close after 5-6 innings, the bullpens will come in to play, making +1.5 runs more valuable. Similarly, laying 1.5 runs, you'd want the opposing team to have a weak pen. Understanding this angle can give you a winning edge, especially against opening numbers.Comment -
Tomato is great!Comment -
If you are playing runlines you will sometimes find value in the -1 1/2 spread but most of your plays should be with the +1 1/2 RL. Just yesturday played 4 games and 3 of them took the + 1 1/2 and one game layed the - 1 1/2.The one loser was with Cleveland which I played at -1 1/2 +185.
Usually I will find only 1 game a day with an edge in the RL and most of the time I will be taking the + 1 1/2 spread.Comment -
Tomato is correct, the more outs you have, the more plays you would find in a day.Comment
