To Fade or not to Fade?

**BettingWizard** · 03-30-10, 11:15 PM

best time to fade pub is when the percentage is 70 or better

**Mr Windy City** · 03-30-10, 11:27 PM

public never wins but that doesnt mean that you should fade them everyday.....gotta win sometimes

**skrtelfan** · 03-31-10, 01:16 AM

I say hold out for 73 percent. Can't be too careful!

**ackescott** · 03-31-10, 04:27 PM

Come on Mr windy city..hate to chase you around like this..at least tell me if you re gonna stiff me my 100 points!

**Dunder** · 03-31-10, 04:31 PM

Yes the public is more often wrong than right but simply fading would not be profitable at standard -110 lines.
There are some angles you can use though, in particular look to those books that shade their lines due to that public money.

**alukk** · 03-31-10, 06:32 PM

No man, dont fade the public. Make your own picks and dont look at where the public is

**ljump12** · 03-31-10, 07:53 PM

not to fade

**Smurfer1** · 03-31-10, 08:54 PM

Fade Docs Sports

**byronbb** · 03-31-10, 09:05 PM

I suspect the concept of fading the public as a mechanical strategy is outdated. It probably worked when public money could actually move the line to the point where fading simply gave you a +EV bet, but today, sharp money is so much larger that this occurrence has been rarefied to events such as the Superbowl. Blindly fading makes no sense. The public loves to bet the over in NBA totals but betting all the unders would not be profitable or else books would go broke fast. Things like reverse line movement in a very public game is a much better indicator. It comes down to getting a good line basically.

**BigdaddyQH** · 04-01-10, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by byronbb

I suspect the concept of fading the public as a mechanical strategy is outdated. It probably worked when public money could actually move the line to the point where fading simply gave you a +EV bet, but today, sharp money is so much larger that this occurrence has been rarefied to events such as the Superbowl. Blindly fading makes no sense. The public loves to bet the over in NBA totals but betting all the unders would not be profitable or else books would go broke fast. Things like reverse line movement in a very public game is a much better indicator. It comes down to getting a good line basically.

Exactly. I can wager more money on Team A than 10 other people wager on their opponents, but the "public" will have wagered 90% on the opponents, even though the actual money wagered is the same. If it were profitable to "fade" the "public", do you think that the books would release this information? And what is to say that their information is, well let's say "accurate" to be polite? What says that a book can not simply give out "inaccurate" information to try and sucker players to jump on a team that they need action on.

**Wrecktangle** · 04-02-10, 05:28 AM

As I mentioned in another thread, I worked on consensus plays with a few other players. consensus on winning cappers was mixed, and fading the losing cappers hardly ever worked mostly because they changed their method of selecting teams. Losing players don't like losing.

**PAULYPOKER** · 04-02-10, 05:33 AM

It is not fading the public that puts you at the top it is knowing when to fade the public which then puts you on the shit list of all the books onshore and off

**Rookie-Capper** · 04-02-10, 10:43 AM

just cap your games and be selective

**Peregrine Stoop** · 04-02-10, 05:37 PM

public fade is not a winner outright, but can be used with other factors to create a profitable subset

**Karayilan9** · 04-02-10, 09:18 PM

Bet on champions/elite teams at home, most peoples problem is determining what is a champ/elite team, for example Aston Villa at home are not a champ/elite team but get given cham/elite status, 1.4 at home for Villa is hardly ever good value but the public think it is because they beat a teams. Ajax at home are a champ/elite team, they are a cut above the rest and getting 1.3 for them is great value even if the whole world is on them, they have not let the masses at home this season, neither have Twente against non champ/elite teams.

The public's biggest problem is confusing the Aston Villa's, the Atletico Madrids, the Az Alkmaars of this world with the Man U, Ajax, Anderlecht, Red Star Belgrade, Zillina, Tallinn, Al Hilal etc etc at home of this world.

Obviously elite/champ teams can change over time, you have to be flexible and work out what's what in the world of sport.

If you take real elite/champ teams and players at home its a big advantage.