For example let's take an NBA game where Pinnacle has:
Team A +5 -105
Team B -5 -105
SIA has:
Team A +5.5 -110
Team B -5.5 -110
Assuming the Pinnacle line as fair the implied probability of +5 covering is 50% correct? So by hitting the +5.5 I am gaining the pushes on 5. Does the +5.5 at SIA cover 50 + (4.37/2) = 52.185% of the time?
Does this mean my edge on betting the +5.5 -110 is equal to 52.185%/50% which equals to 4.37%?
What if I can get Team A at +6 -115? How do I incorporate the different payout I am getting with respect to calculating my edge? Or does it not matter and I should simply calculate the edge for +6 and adjust my bet size accordingly to factor in the different payout odds.
Currently I am just arbitrarily betting 1u when I can find a line 4-6 cents better than Pinny's, 1.5u when I can find a line 7-8 cents better than Pinny's, and 2u when I can find a line 9 or more cents better than Pinny's and I am trying to find a more optimal method to size my bets. Right now I would bet 1u on Team A +5.5 -110 at SIA cause Pinnacle will probably have something along the lines of Team A +5.5 -114 on their dynamic lines dropdown. I'm hoping to be able to quantify my edge so I can apply Kelly betting.
Sorry for the noobish questions as I slowly read and re-read all the Ganchrow, durito, justin7, donjuan, thremp, etc posts to try and learn. Feel free to bash/berate any flaws in my math or understanding.
Team A +5 -105
Team B -5 -105
SIA has:
Team A +5.5 -110
Team B -5.5 -110
Assuming the Pinnacle line as fair the implied probability of +5 covering is 50% correct? So by hitting the +5.5 I am gaining the pushes on 5. Does the +5.5 at SIA cover 50 + (4.37/2) = 52.185% of the time?
Does this mean my edge on betting the +5.5 -110 is equal to 52.185%/50% which equals to 4.37%?
What if I can get Team A at +6 -115? How do I incorporate the different payout I am getting with respect to calculating my edge? Or does it not matter and I should simply calculate the edge for +6 and adjust my bet size accordingly to factor in the different payout odds.
Currently I am just arbitrarily betting 1u when I can find a line 4-6 cents better than Pinny's, 1.5u when I can find a line 7-8 cents better than Pinny's, and 2u when I can find a line 9 or more cents better than Pinny's and I am trying to find a more optimal method to size my bets. Right now I would bet 1u on Team A +5.5 -110 at SIA cause Pinnacle will probably have something along the lines of Team A +5.5 -114 on their dynamic lines dropdown. I'm hoping to be able to quantify my edge so I can apply Kelly betting.
Sorry for the noobish questions as I slowly read and re-read all the Ganchrow, durito, justin7, donjuan, thremp, etc posts to try and learn. Feel free to bash/berate any flaws in my math or understanding.
