Buying all dog ML with no Vig, will be +EV?

**Tomato** · 03-20-10, 11:23 PM

Are you implying that Pinnacle's no-vig numbers are shaded towards the favorite?

Finding EV and betting it at EV is not +EV

**Peeig** · 03-21-10, 12:41 AM

Tomato has an awesome picture!!!!

**u21c3f6** · 03-21-10, 06:46 AM

The optimal wager is of course Kelly (edge/odds). No edge, no wager. If you assume your edge is equal across various odds, then the simple way to wager is for each wager to win a certain dollar amount. Essentially wagering more dollars on those wagers that have a greater chance of winning (Kelly).

Joe.

**LT Profits** · 03-21-10, 11:28 AM

My guess is you would end up about even, possibly losing slightly after commissions.

**smitch124** · 03-21-10, 11:37 AM

Well I suppose if you post the number you might have a small edge because you get a small commission for being the MM. Whats most likely to happen, though, is that you will find little interest in your offer if the market stays the same or moves in your favor, but the second it moves against you the offer will be matched and be -EV.

**MrX** · 03-21-10, 12:26 PM

Would you win if all of your bets were matched, yes, you'd probably realize about the same ROI as the commission you get from MB.

The problem is, you're going to end up with only the subset of bets that are snatched up by other players during line moves and other +EV opportunities for them.

**roasthawg** · 03-21-10, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by blix177

If I take Pinny ML, and find the no vig line odds. Than post that number up at Matchbook for the dog, would I generate +EV in the long run?

And if I do this, how should I it. Suppose I put $100 as average bet size, it wouldn't work too well, considering a $100 on +150 vs $100 +3800 are two very different bets. Should I use win amount as my set number? Or would that still skew it where 1 bet is too big relative to another bet?

Matchbook lines are sharper than Pinny lines... you'll lose trying let Pinny cap games for you.

**Rich Boy** · 03-21-10, 05:09 PM

Matchbook is Pinny's bitch... Every single person using matchbook has a Pinny page open checking the lines every 20 seconds...

Pinny moves, then the entire industry moves.

**ljump12** · 03-21-10, 05:25 PM

You could try it, my opinion is that you will get little fills out passively, and when you do -- it will be because steam ran you over.

**blix177** · 03-22-10, 12:13 AM

But if I do, it 10 min before start of the game...

**Peregrine Stoop** · 03-24-10, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Matchbook lines are sharper than Pinny lines... you'll lose trying let Pinny cap games for you.

**xyz** · 03-24-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by blix177

But if I do, it 10 min before start of the game...

The problem is that your eyes, keyboard strokes, and mouse clicks do not move nearly as fast as bots on MB. You will get run over by steam even 10 minutes before the game doing this.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 03-25-10, 12:31 AM

not to mention the taiwanese steam