Anybody have any good advice on where to start in building your own valueline in order to create my own morning lines to better be able to spot overlays??????
-
-
I am a big fish a small sea and have tried all the options along this line. What I found it is a waste of time. Best thing to do is circle the possible winners in the race. Eliminate the balance and set odds for these horses only. If any of these horse go over your ML odds then they are an overlay. The easier way is find your one horse and determine his odds vs the field. If he is over your odds bet him down to your odds. If under then handicap him in some exotics for the value.Comment -
Thanks for the reply aggie the one thing that I have found is that over the longhaul every one of the odds tend t hit within 1% of their break even point and feel that if you are efficiently able to spot the slightest of an overlay that overtime you will be able to give your self plenty of +EV bets.
I am just not sure of where to start as far as creating fair odds for each horse in a race, should I create some type of point system for things I find importance in such as beyers, power ratings, jockey %, trainer %, form, etc. add all the points together for each horse and divide by the total??????
I am confused here I see value in this but do not know where to start to create odds. I am a solid handicapper as stands but even with solid capping it is too hard to overcome track takeouts and I am a firm believer, especially in racing, that blindly betting a horse who is undervalued is a good move to make if you have +EV considering that favs only win 30% of the time.Comment -
anywhere reallyComment -
Excellent response
when did the point whores start invading the think tank????
Comment -
You need to bet at fixed odds if you are going to stand a chance to beat the market constantly. If you are in the US - your options are limited ... Betmaker is good .. but fee's can add up .... if you are not in the US ... your options are much better. Betfair and fixed odds place betting is where the money is to be made IMHO.
Of course ... if you bet exotics ... the fixed odds setup does not help.
My approach is similar to aggies ... narrow the field to 4 or 5 with a chance and handicap/evaluate probability of winning v's market odds.
Spotting false favorites or very over-bet favorites is another easy way to find value. Quite often if a horse has a speed advantage last time out and the horse is also clear on a couple of other "rating" pointers ... the horse will be VERY over-bet ... even if it is running over the wrong distance or is coming back from a long lay-off ... If the horse normally needs a run or two to hit top form or is an early running style horse stepping up in distance ... and is still over-bet - dutching a couple of the others in the race that have a big chance @ odds of 4 or 5-1 v's the 1/4 shot that has "doubt" surrounding it is generally a good way to get value in a race.Comment -
Great info JW surprisingly I have ran through past results and found that horses of even money or less tend to fall short of their break even win % long term whereas higher odd horses tend to hit right around their break even point which shows that heavy favorites are almost always going to be a -EV bet but horses from 2-1 up through 10-1 seem to hit the break even point.
I have a lot of interest in betting with offshore books because of the 3% kickback it gives you at worst case $0 EV by minimizing the track take out plus your wagers do not go into the pot and lower the horses odds.
My thought is if you can efficiently spot overlays like you were saying it would be a good play to dutch those several horses with the expectation of grinding out a profit long term by making +EV bets.
My biggest issue is finding a efficient way of assigning odds to a horse rather than just guesstimating. considering that favs only win 30% of the time should I automatically start with odds of 2-1 and than make adjustments from there????Comment -
You can make more than that by using a fixed-odds exchange when placing your wager. Problem with on-track or even off-shore betting .. is that you have no idea what odds you are going to get until the race becomes official .. its almost impossible to beat anything unless you know going in what the payoff is going to be. You may study the form, make your own book, spot the value odds and put down your $50 or your $100 and right at the time the gate opens someone else does the same ... only they put down $1000 or $2000 .. and as the result goes official - your value has now gone bye-bye ....
Nah - you can't just give a horse a 30% chance to win a race because its a favorite ... and the rest of the field a 70% chance .. because some favorites have a 5% chance of winning a race .. and some have a 95% chance. You are along the right lines with a "guesstimate" though ..... the whole point of studying the form is to come up with a guesstimate ... and then when you compare your guesstimate (form study) of a horses chance with the track odds (rest of the public's guesstimate) ... you will find out how good your reading of form really is.
As long as you are confident that you can do better than those people at the track who put money down because they like a name, or because its top rated in speed, or class or because it's the morning line favorite .... you should do ok in the long-term.
Pick your spots ... don't bet unless you get value ... and ALWAYS re-evaluate a race after its been run to see what you missed .. (especially when an odds on favorite gets beat) and eventually you should be able to spot a false favorite and therefore an opportunity to back at fair odds.
Remember - the morning line is just the best guesstimate from a guy at the track ... the current odds are just a cumulative best guesstimate from the public that are putting money on the race ... so there is nothing wrong with using a guesstimate based on your own study of the form.
Comment -
I have no problems capping the horses here in the states i've been doing it for 12 years off and on, spend most of my time on sports these days. Most of the value I find at the tracks is in good horses who have had a few tough runs, say a bumped start, running wide, couldn't find an opening when ready to break and all that good stuff. Usually you can find some gems who if they hold form can easily contend if not win the race. I also look to see if a horse has that leadership quality of if he has the follower mentality along with many other factors and am pretty successful, but the takeouts here are so high it is hard to get value. I do good with my guesstimates but think I can improve my game by inserting some math skills, considering that math is what the entire system is based on.
I need to start looking from the perspective of "I have this much value in this horse" instead of "this horse looks good"
Fixed odds or even just a smaller takeout would be great but that will never happen, around here they don't realize that if they took less out of the betting pool that people would win more consistently which would in turn generate more patrons and more revenue.Comment -
Yup - I never understood it either ... go into any other forum on the site and ask them if they would be willing to place a bet not knowing what odds they were going to get until after the game - and they would look at you like you were crazy .... not sure why horse players accept it to be honest .... I guess "because its always been like that" really is the answer in this case
I think I know what you are trying to do however .... you are trying to come up with a system that will award points and then allow you to determine value based on a set criteria ... e.g. knock one point if its a course/distance winner .. another if its being ridden by a leading jockey, another couple of points if its won or been placed in its last race ... another point if its had a good recent workout ... etc etc ... I think its just another way of interpreting and putting a value on your form reading .... you are already doing it in essence ... just not awarding the points.Comment -
point system works for harness racing only. use a 3 race average beyer racing as a base. then add points based on the track bais, jockey etc. thourougbreds are so dependant on track bais it is unreal. i would focus on setting prices less and more on money management.Comment -
Know the track.
Know the trainers.
Know the jockeys.
Wager as late as you can without getting shut out.Comment -
One place to start would be the book "Winning at the Races" by William Quirin. Its over 30 years old but was a serious attempt at doing the kind of thing you want to do. He used multiple linear regression to generate a formula for assigning the points.
I agree with the gist of what others are saying about how difficult this will be. I have worked on this off and on for years without any success. I can do slightly better than simply betting on the favorites or throwing darts. Overcoming the take out probably makes getting to breaking even almost impossible. But, hope lingers eternal.
Good luck.Comment -
The issue of where to wager has been raised. Fixed odds would be great if you have access to them. Off shore has an advantage because of the rebates.
Youbet has an interesting feature called conditional wagering. You can specify the minimum odds you will take at a certain time before a race. If the odds are there or above, the wager will be made. The odds might change after the wager so you do have some exposure. But if you have a system that would generate desired odds on lots of races and horses this would be an expedient method of wagering. They will even accept uploaded comma delimited files.Comment -
Thanks for the educated response Bsims, I guess my thing is i'm not looking for a way to start picking winners every race but I would like to find a way to develop a way of assigning my own odds per each horse by using a little bit of gut feeling combined with solid mathematical numbers. If over time I can perfect this system it wool allow me to pick out suspected overlays on horses where I have numbers to back my suspicion. For example I have no problems laying 1% of my bankroll on a horse that I fell will win 33% of the time but the track is offering me 4-1 meaning I would only need to win that wager 20% of the time to break even where I have more than just a gut feeling to prove that it is likely to happen 33%.Comment -
Glad you got a chuckle out of it but all of it is true. Maybe it didn't translate well so I'll add to it.
Know the track. In simplest terms, that statement is what you need to know. Is the rail dead on the lawn, dirt, neither surface or both? Which path hold water worse than the others? How do first time shippers handle the surface(s)? Is the track favoring speed or closers? Things along that nature.
Know the trainer. Just because the trainer has an overall win rate of 22% doesn't mean they are good at spotting races in the conditioning book. If that was the case, why do some struggle so poorly at one distance and/or surface yet succeed at others? Each trainer has a (data) profile for the track broken down by overall stats and each category (distance and surface). The quicker one learns that, the better off they will be. It also includes things like trainer AB uses the fill-in-the-blank track meet to prep for the following meet at track QWE.
Know the jockey. Pretty much all the above about trainers less the condition book.
Hope this clears things up for you.
Comment -
sorry I thought you were jokingGlad you got a chuckle out of it but all of it is true. Maybe it didn't translate well so I'll add to it.
Know the track. In simplest terms, that statement is what you need to know. Is the rail dead on the lawn, dirt, neither surface or both? Which path hold water worse than the others? How do first time shippers handle the surface(s)? Is the track favoring speed or closers? Things along that nature.
Know the trainer. Just because the trainer has an overall win rate of 22% doesn't mean they are good at spotting races in the conditioning book. If that was the case, why do some struggle so poorly at one distance and/or surface yet succeed at others? Each trainer has a (data) profile for the track broken down by overall stats and each category (distance and surface). The quicker one learns that, the better off they will be. It also includes things like trainer AB uses the fill-in-the-blank track meet to prep for the following meet at track QWE.
Know the jockey. Pretty much all the above about trainers less the condition book.
Hope this clears things up for you.
If you read all the posts in the thread we are about 10 years worth of handicapping beyond that point, but I appreciate the input.
It also helps to pay attention to the horses form in past races, morning workouts, layoff timespan between last race, jumps up or down in class, beyer speed figures, power ratings, class ratings, front wraps, lassix, blinkers, racing surface, etc.
I am sorry I thought you were joking, I guess you misunderstood the topic.Comment -
I am trying to find an efficient way of taking all of the knowledge I have gained in 12 years and develop some type of numerical system to come up with a consistent way of estimating my own odds per horse rather than just guessing what I feel a horses odds should be. Basically I am hoping that by doing so I will be able to come up with more consistent numbers than I would come to by just guessing this way it would allow me to make adjustments to my conclusions long term. Also what I am looking for by doing so is to find horses that I feel are undervalued due to the public laying too heavy on the favorite, in which I feel are valuable bets to make whether they win the race or not.Comment -
put all your knowledge. any horse that pays over $6.00 per $2 bet to win (2-1), its a good business!.
no matter is over or under your odds... if under your odds and under the morning line, that means, the horse is expected to have a better race or chance than we imagine.... good luck!,
NO VALUELINE in this moment, handle is dropping every year from 10-15%, that means in 2 years there 30% less on pools, any one can bet on a horse will move the odds dramatically....Comment -
Actually I have ran through 100's of past race results and shockingly if you bet every horse that went off at 2-1 you would most likely break even long term, through roughly 400 past races tested horses at 2-1 hit within 1-2% of 33% of the time which would be your break even point. Usually horses in the 2-1/3-1 range tend to fail to meet their necessary win% to break even due to the publics tendency to chase favorites so you would have a better shot with 4-1/5-1 horses doing this. Take away the track takeout and a 2-1 horse would be more like 3-1 or 7/2 which would than make these horses profitable.Comment -
Try get your hands on Don Scott's literature. He was the father of modern day handicapping in Australia. He was one of the first to publicize the concept of framing your own market and then comparing it with available prices. In addition to the usual fixed odds betting available in Australia, he also bet into the various tote pools that formed in Australia in the 1960's and 70's and still managed to make a killing (at 15% to 17% tote take out).
However, getting copies of his books are quite expensive, as they were limited runs, and haven't been produced since the early 90's. It cost me quite a bit to secure his various releases, but it's worth the cost. And just as a little aside, America's Beyer insisted to Scott of the superiority of his speed ratings for handicapping, and got minced over here.
Formulate framing your market on a horse's capacity to tolerate weight, with the primary influence of this being the horse's 'class', which in turn can be quantitatively estimated by its past performance in any given types of race. Obviously there are other factors involved, but what is described above is what the gist of Don Scott's handiapping method is.Comment -
I dont mean to chase favorites, i was telling is you have a horse at 5-1 and morning line is 4-1 and current its 2-1, there 80% or 90% to win on this horse...
Like for today, race 1, at meydan (dubai), the horse No. 6 Alazeyab, its at 40-1 m.line, this horse is playable, the group is soft, the three horse winners on previews race are heading big races for late march. great to see him at 10-1 or 8-1, and still a good bet. Main Enemy No. 1 Global City.
Comment -
Australian Racing its different than USA, i have tested Australia (holding three account on tabs)... and you can place on any of the this markets, the three offers different payouts for the same race, and many others bookies also have different payouts....
In USA we have only one tote offered by the main track, and bookies pays as same the racetrack.
Both markets are totally different, of course, betting on Aussie races its more profitable than on USA horses, Aussie offer strict post times, all races start one behind another, 80% of the racetrack in USA dont respect the advertised post time...
ONE TIP LINE: BET ON HORSES THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS FAVORITE (ODDS MAX 3-1) AND MADE A BAD RACE, MEANS OUT OF THE TOP 5, HORSE SHOULD BE IN THE SAME OR UP LEVEL TO QUALIFY.
Comment -
I really don't think horse racing is that much different anywhere in the world. The same principles apply, it just needs to be tweaked. You make a soccer, basketball, ice hockey model etc, the modelling process is fundamentally the same. The variables just have different values.
I assume your talking about the common 'best of three totes' option. This is just a BS gimmick. You effectively still have to fight a 113% - 115% overround. And again, beating this is the same problem as fighting the totes in the USA.
But granted, we have Betfair available to us, an absolute god send. You yanks need to do whatever you can to get on Betfair; proxy ip's, dummy accounts, etc.
Do whatever you can! It's a gold mine.Comment -
Oh and petition your government to get rid of that ridicolous UIEGA Act.Comment -
The only way to do so precisely, provided that you have the capping skills, is to make sure your odds for the horses in a race add up to exactly 100%.
You may want to read up on Barry Meadows, or Steve Fierro (who uses time-saving set templates with different odds distributions).
Finding overlays depends on the accuracy of your handicapping. I'm assuming your question wasn't about how to cap a race. Libraries could be dedicated to that question.Comment -
I would add that it is important to know the jockey/trainer stats. This is especially key for favorites. If a jockey/trainer combo is hitting at 28% or higher and the trainer is sending out the favorite, you must give that favorite very serious consideration. If you play exotics, then you must look at the "in the money" percentage, which should be in the 60's or higher. Trainers have their favorite jockies. The jockey/trainer duo work as a team. Each one knows the other's capabilities. Each track has one or more jockey/trainer combo that hits at a high percentage. If you are sending a first time starter to a track in Southern California, the last thing you want to see is another first time starter in the race with the Baffert/Gomez duo calling the shots.Glad you got a chuckle out of it but all of it is true. Maybe it didn't translate well so I'll add to it.
Know the track. In simplest terms, that statement is what you need to know. Is the rail dead on the lawn, dirt, neither surface or both? Which path hold water worse than the others? How do first time shippers handle the surface(s)? Is the track favoring speed or closers? Things along that nature.
Know the trainer. Just because the trainer has an overall win rate of 22% doesn't mean they are good at spotting races in the conditioning book. If that was the case, why do some struggle so poorly at one distance and/or surface yet succeed at others? Each trainer has a (data) profile for the track broken down by overall stats and each category (distance and surface). The quicker one learns that, the better off they will be. It also includes things like trainer AB uses the fill-in-the-blank track meet to prep for the following meet at track QWE.
Know the jockey. Pretty much all the above about trainers less the condition book.
Hope this clears things up for you.Comment -
I appreciate the input but this thread is not about handicapping techniques it is about using the techniques that I prefer in order to develop my own lines for each horse in a race as to find value in horses due to overlays/underlays not looking for ways to pick winners here looking to spot value!!!!!
I am not looking for handicapping advice, I have no problems handicapping been doing it for 12 years I was raised at the track and would consider myself a very good capper.
Comment -
I appreciate the input but this thread is not about handicapping techniques it is about using the techniques that I prefer in order to develop my own lines for each horse in a race as to find value in horses due to overlays/underlays not looking for ways to pick winners here looking to spot value!!!!!
I am not looking for handicapping advice, I have no problems handicapping been doing it for 12 years I was raised at the track and would consider myself a very good capper.
then you dont need odds, you need efficiency on your picks.... look into your %..
if youre good you always have a profit.Comment -
Exactly D I am thinking along the lines of assigning some type of point system in which points would be awarded to each horse for many things that I generally feel have importance in capping, and than tallying up the points to get a total and than divide each horse odds based on his total of points divided by the total amount of points which would give me a % that I could convert into odds.
I guess my problem is coming up with a point system that would distribute out enough points to give me quality win %. obviously this will not happen over night and would require years worth of tweaking. Say once I come up with my lines I could than invest my $$$$ into horse who I am getting 10% better than my projections or something along those lines.Comment -
Mate there's no other way to go but framing your own book at 100% and finding +ev bets from there. If you can quantitatively define your handicapping variables into values (and are a +ev handicapper), then going through the framing process is the easy part.
I'm gathering you're having problems because you handicap on a more situational basis, and so thus have problems assigning values to your handicapping process?Comment
