if you know what you are doing it works, just like anything else. it isn't brain surgery. people fail because they don't follow or have any type of plan, same as in life.
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This is an excellent Post, chase does work for a small sample size, but for example Bookie Buster will work. But eventually you will get to that 4th level of chase and the stakes become too much of a percentage of your Bankroll.I'm going to admit that i'm a bit of a chaser myself, when I started I bought a few systems and ebooks and my first go at things was a simple martingale chase which I used along with tout free picks, it started ok but it didn't take too long before I was forced to make bets bigger than what I could mentally cope with, so I would always bottle it when the progression got too high which mean't I was down a fair bit, I then tried labrouchere along with other systems from ebooks like bookie buster, same thing happened, the ebook would have systems like 33% system where you only need to win that amount for it to work, sounded good but the truth is the system was really 33% over a very small sample rate, as time went on I began tracking picks and trying new systems and I tested system after system with the sample data I had tracked and there was always a breaking point where it would go
up.
I have personally tracked daily picks (1 pick a day) where touts would go 9 strait days without getting a win, occasionally it would go to 8 or 9 in a row, fairly often 5-6 losses and very often 3-4 losing days in a row, these numbers will crush you using an aggressive chase.
What I do see after tracking picks long enough is that the best picks hit about 53% over a year, the worst maybe 46%.
I do still chase a bit here and there, but my bets may increase after a month, usually increased gradually per month, so that over a longer term you can clear a profit at a lower than 50% strike rate, it needs alot of patience though.
I am aware that this is no doubt an inefficient way of doing things but at least im learning new things on the way, until im good enough to cap myself with confidence this is the way I play.
I will say this, every aggressive chase system i've used has failed eventually, I often see new systems about and try and run simulations over the course of 1000 bets at about 48% strike rate to see how they hold up, some hold up but the roi over a fairly long period will be quite low, anything that does produce good profits always seems to bankrupt you before it can recover from losses at some point.
My advice if your gonna chase is set aside a portion of your bankroll, maybe 10% to use on a chase system at least then if it goes to shit you can try again, this has kept me in the game on more than a few occasions.
Also if anyone wants some tout free pick results im happy to send them over so you can test your methods with some real performance and see how back and forth it can be on a month to month basis.
Especially if your odds are greater than -110.
On the other hand flat betting really is a grind...Comment -
Sure a chase can work. And someone can win the lottery also. It happens. Just not very frequently. It is a lousy system to play. Gambling is a grind, but the grind is what you had better be prepared for if you want to win. Just ask the very few people who are winners in here.Comment -
i have posted this comment at another thread..
"70-80% posters said chasing don't work but for me it works out great. there are many ways you can do your chasing.. you can chase team A 3-6 times.. another option would be chasing team A-team B-team C-team etc... Not all chase methods are equally effective..You decide what is effective for you. Most people chase all of their plays on the same day... for example.. first he bets on clev, then det under if the first one lost, and now chase 1h spurs if det under lost... just to give you an idea of how things work.."
chase system is an easy and long term money maker.. limit your chase to three games. divide your bankroll into equal 5 portions. don't rise or reduce wager if you win/lose. best thing about chasing is that it can detach your emotion part of gambling. you wont be betting every day + number of games are minimal.Last edited by johncrud; 02-26-10, 10:15 AM.Comment -
Wow! This gets my vote for one of the worst pieces of misinformation I have ever seen.
The proof is in the mathematics. Even if your flat bet wagering was +EV, by chasing you risk ruin by overbetting your bankroll. If your flat bet wagers are -EV, there is no wagering system that can make you a long-term winner. Let me repeat, if your flat bet wagers are -EV, there is no wagering system that can make you a long-term winner.
And for those that did not get it the first time, if your flat bet wagers are -EV, there is no wagering system that can make you a long-term winner.
Hope that was clear.
Joe.Comment -
This thread is a rehash of "Show Me the Odds". In it, Peep suggested getting data from a free trial from Don Best. Here's how to do get it:
Good idea, peep, I called Don Best at 1-800-DONBEST (no e-mail address!). They have a 7 day free trail period for "express" odds (with a 2 minute delay). Follow this link:
and scroll down to "Enroll Now!" button. A credit card will be required, but the salesman told me that there is no automatic renewal.
I don't think 7 days is enough time for a fair evaluation.
Someone else who believes that chasing lines is a good idea can follow up on this. I'd be curious to see the results, but I won't put time into it.Comment -
Short term it may work, but not long-term IMOComment -
a chase system can work if it never loses
so, no, a chase system cannot workComment -
i use a chase every year in baseball. i bet every team starting on their first game of they year that they won't lose 162 games. it has never lost and it will never ever lose. i do the same in the nba and in the nhl.Comment -
chases are not good because you're risking a lot of money for a little bit of gain....only a matter of time before the inevitable chase (s) make you bankrupt dont care how many years it works.Comment -
this is a dumb subject and discussion. bottom line is anything that you can make work will work. if you don't win you don't win, period. it isn't impossible, nothing is. i have made it work for years and never had a losing long term streak. does it lose at times of course it does. the best straight bettors/bets have losing months, what the flip is the difference. do what you can make work, i don't care if you stand on your head and make something work, if it works for you it works...everyone/situation is different. is it difficult to make work, yes it is...just like all of this crap.Comment -
I once tried a martingale of $1 at roulette and eventually lost 19 spins in a row and the last spin was 262 dimes. Ended up losing my house, car, and wife. Let this be a warning to all chase system followers!Comment -
Man, if I would have met you doing this I would have hit you in the head - the only way to stop most martingalers, the chief prosecutor of my town (I used to sell soccer picks to him back 3,5 years ago) was chasing number 6 in a 3 out of 10 lottery until 19th or 21st lottery day. That "6" showed up only in the 26th drawing, though mathematically we all understand it should have appeared every 3-4 drawings. Those money he lost were enough to feed a small African country for a week or two I bet.
I never ever even think of martingale since that time. If you can't win betting FLAT, better stop betting until you learn how to.
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i am 100% full of sh*t. you cannot compare a martingale system on roulette or a machine to sports where humans are involved, it is not the same.Comment -
Infinite chasing will bankrupt your account but not if you limit to 2-3 games.
Chase systems (with the correct approach) can also avoid losses on point shaving or rigged games since a loss is not counted until you actually lose a sequential number of bets.Comment -
wowza... chase systems do work
they get the morans to give up their money quickerComment -
Don't chase. You will get burned in the end. Develop a successful handicapping method and win.Comment -
I've run several simulations on chase systems. If the selections are serially correlated even to a small extent (+0.1 & above), you wipe out eventually, even at reasonably high win rates.
I have no absolute proof that sports forecasts are serially correlated, but my practical experience has shown correlations higher than .1 on numerous occasions.Comment -
learned something new , everyday
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