Win % of Col BB favs of 6, 6.5, and 7?

**Peep** · 02-06-10, 11:17 PM

Raw data.

Home favorites only.

-6 line, 1023 games. Favorite wins 733.

-6.5 line, 768 games. Home Favorite wins 573.

-7 line, 976 games. Home favorite wins 728.

**LT Profits** · 02-07-10, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by HedgeHog

I need info on win % of College BB favs of exactly 6, 6.5 and 7. Using the 1/2 point calculator, I come up with 71.94%, 73.73% and 75.74% respectively. Seems high to me--anyone with actual data on this?

Looks fine to me.

**HedgeHog** · 02-07-10, 09:24 AM

Thanks Peep & LT. One of the places I use has generous college BB teaser prices---and ties win. These numbers are very encouraging

**THE PROFIT** · 02-16-10, 04:19 AM

so you're looking for SU wins? I play very few hoop teasers, & when I do its vegas teasers, 4pts still get odds. What are the numbers on bb teasers? been so long I forgot exactly

**Morrisbettor** · 02-16-10, 05:51 AM

That must be the SU %, anyone have the ATS number for home teams on this?

**LT Profits** · 02-16-10, 08:28 AM

Originally posted by Morrisbettor

That must be the SU %, anyone have the ATS number for home teams on this?

Yes, he was looking for SU. As you might expect, all ATS numbers are around 50%:

Home Faves ATS
6 49.7%
6.5 51.7%
7 49.5%

**Morrisbettor** · 02-16-10, 03:46 PM

Thanks

**HedgeHog** · 02-18-10, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

so you're looking for SU wins? I play very few hoop teasers, & when I do its vegas teasers, 4pts still get odds. What are the numbers on bb teasers? been so long I forgot exactly

ABC has the best college BB teasers I've seen lately. Ties win on 2-teamers and you can get 5 (-105), 5.5 (-115) or 6 (-125) points.

**daneault23** · 02-18-10, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Looks fine to me.

So on average, if you bet on the ML for these favs at odds of about -280 or -290 or better, you should come out ahead?

**LT Profits** · 02-18-10, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by daneault23

So on average, if you bet on the ML for these favs at odds of about -280 or -290 or better, you should come out ahead?

Yes, but they are usually higher. The total on the game is another variable in the ML price.

**daneault23** · 02-18-10, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes, but they are usually higher. The total on the game is another variable in the ML price.

Good point. I actually came across something that might be of value. A couple systems that soxwin says he uses (not sure about accurate results) but he says "Here are 2 quick examples of systems that can be used. In College hoops with totals under 120 bet the over (with the exceptions being the MAC and Big 10 conf then bet under).

Also there are certain teams that on a year by year basis you need to throw out of that equation(n.iowa for an example this year) Those teams need to be identified quickly to keep you from costing you money.

A 3% type of play is betting under the total for any game that is over a 160 total.

If you want the stats to back it up look for yourself. I do research for 4-5 hrs/day.I am always on the lookout for new systems that people come up with on boards like these. When I find someone who has hit on something I thank them by offering a system of mine in return that can further add to their bottom line."

He seems like he knows what he's talking about, so I might paper trail this for a bit and see how it goes, or backtest it for myself.

**daneault23** · 02-18-10, 03:54 PM

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that since 2004 he says it has hit 63% and is 18-6 so far this year.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 02-18-10, 09:22 PM

Hedge, you and I think alike. I've been doing this the last two weeks.