So, I know that mathematically, free plays are more profitable in the long run the longer the odds. If you bet on a -500 favorite, then you’re pretty much wasting the free play, whereas if you bet on a +500 underdog, it has a lot more value.
My question is, does the same apply to odds boosts? Is that also a matter of the longer the odds the better?
I’m not a great math guy, but I was playing around with it, and that seems like it’s the case. But it’s possible I’m doing the math wrong.
Let’s say I have a promotion at a sportsbook that I can boost the odds 25% on any wager, up to a $100 bet maximum. To keep things simple, ignore the juice. (MGM, for example, offers some no juice bets, and they allow you to use other promotions like odds boosts on them.) Two scenarios:
I can bet a +900 underdog that will win 10% of the time and lose 90% of the time. The 25% boost will change the odds to +1125. (900 * 1.25). So, I’m now risking $100 to win $1,125. There’s a 90% chance I’ll lose $100, so that’s -$90, and there’s a 10% chance I’ll win $1,125, so that’s +$112.50. Expected value is +$22.50.
I can bet an even money play. The 25% boost will change the odds to +125. (100 * 1.25). So, I’m now risking $100 to win $125. There’s a 50% chance I’ll lose $100, so that’s -$50, and there’s a 50% chance I’ll win $125, so that’s +$62.50. Expected value is +$12.50.
Conclusion, use this type of odds boost on plays with long odds.
Does that look right?
My question is, does the same apply to odds boosts? Is that also a matter of the longer the odds the better?
I’m not a great math guy, but I was playing around with it, and that seems like it’s the case. But it’s possible I’m doing the math wrong.
Let’s say I have a promotion at a sportsbook that I can boost the odds 25% on any wager, up to a $100 bet maximum. To keep things simple, ignore the juice. (MGM, for example, offers some no juice bets, and they allow you to use other promotions like odds boosts on them.) Two scenarios:
I can bet a +900 underdog that will win 10% of the time and lose 90% of the time. The 25% boost will change the odds to +1125. (900 * 1.25). So, I’m now risking $100 to win $1,125. There’s a 90% chance I’ll lose $100, so that’s -$90, and there’s a 10% chance I’ll win $1,125, so that’s +$112.50. Expected value is +$22.50.
I can bet an even money play. The 25% boost will change the odds to +125. (100 * 1.25). So, I’m now risking $100 to win $125. There’s a 50% chance I’ll lose $100, so that’s -$50, and there’s a 50% chance I’ll win $125, so that’s +$62.50. Expected value is +$12.50.
Conclusion, use this type of odds boost on plays with long odds.
Does that look right?