I would like someone to explain to me the proper view on betting a extreme line change. Ex Lakers -4 line moves to Lakers -6. Which is the proper team to bet on, Lakers or their opponent?
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I certainly wouldn't bet the Lakers after the move. My philisophy is never bet a game unless I have the best number that's out there. I strive to be in action only when I have the best number that was ever available on the game. Now you will never be perfect, you will guess wrong and/or be wrong about the move. However there is no future in knowingly betting games where the line has steamed several points against you. Not taking the other side either unless there is a strong opinion involved and I was hoping to get a better number if I waited. You might get different answers but generally speaking I'm not going to bet either side. Some of the advantages you hold against the book is we can bet what we want, when we want. Plenty more games coming, try only play when you are getting the best number available.Comment -
What he's asking is how to tell if that move is due to public or sharp action I think.Comment -
Wheres Justin for a question like this????Comment -
This is a decent philosophy imo... personally I pay zero attention to line movement, the most I do is shop around for the best line at the time I'm ready to place my bet. But I definitely would prefer to be on the dog in a case like this where the move went towards the favorite. At the same time, I wouldn't let the move stop me from placing my bet if I still saw value in the favorite.Comment -
Fair enough. I said from the start people will look at things differently. Some tell me they bet games after the big moves with the bad number and still win consistently. Personally I don't believe it but anything's possible, they swear to it. I would recommend though you go to the next step and look to bet games earlier if you really feel strongly and have no reason to believe you are going to get a better number by waiting. For example if you love the Lakers enough to bet them after the move you probably loved them enough to bet them at -4 as well. Predicting line moves are not an exact science but you do become better at it the more you work at it. That's why my goal is always have the best number available. Even if I like the Lakers I'm not betting them at -6 if -4 was available earlier. Just not going to do it, I look at it as though I missed my opportunity to bet, I'm off the game. I'm waiting for the overnights to come out, I am in early on games I think will move against me, especially public teams and other indicators you grow to get a feel for. Again we all have our own ideas, for me it's to be selective and always strive to have the best number on any game I play. I'm young (well fairly young) and there's lot more opportunites coming to make bets down the road, no since going in with bad numbers. I'm just not going to do it. Anyway my 2 cents, good luck brother.Comment -
I think both of you are right. He didn't directly ask that but I think that is what he is trying to get at. Line movements like that are going to come from action so whether or not he knows it what he wants to know is if he is on the "sharp" side or not. I am no expert in this and if anyone had a solid way of telling what the sharp side was on every move they would do very well for themselves. If it is the public that is moving the line then usually you want to stay away.Comment -
Thx Guys for the help. Thats was what I was asking. Which way to bet when the line moves big. I do have a place to see what side the public is betting. So thx.Comment -
My tout, Rich, worked for an offshore book. He said the sharps bang up the early lines.
He sends his picks around 3 PM eastern. That's when the dust settles. Never bet an
hour or less before game time.Comment -
The sharpes, as you guys like to call them, wager very early and very late, and little in between. It is nearly impossible for you guys to figure out where the money is coming from. The percentage of people wagering on a certain side at a certain book is meaningless. The question is twofold. Where is the money going down, and who is putting it down. Just because you have money to wager does not mean that you know what you are doing. Wagering large amounts does not make you a sharp, but most people in here do not believe that. Since no one in here really has access to the needed information, the best way to go about wagering is to find the best line possible. Do not worry about what others are doing. You have no idea of who those other people are. Just do your thing, and if you are finding good lines, you should be profiting.Comment -
Do you know why the line moved? You cannot have a blind opinion based on the move alone. If it is a new injury, does the new line accurately reflect the new roster? There might be value on either side.Comment