A mechanical betting method?

**LT Profits** · 01-28-10, 04:31 AM

Assuming you are accepting offers at the exchange instead of making offerings of your own, I'd say you are on the right track. Just remember to include commission in your computations.

**PAPSMEAR** · 01-28-10, 04:33 AM

Arbing is not a new concept

**LT Profits** · 01-28-10, 04:36 AM

He is not arbing, he is trying to lead with a good line.

**PAPSMEAR** · 01-28-10, 04:39 AM

perhaps I misunderstood???Please explain LT

**LT Profits** · 01-28-10, 04:44 AM

Arbing is betting both sides of the same game for a guaranteed profit. The OP is trying to beat steam with leading bet. I suppose he COULD arb later on if the line reverses, but that is not his intended goal.

**PAPSMEAR** · 01-28-10, 04:48 AM

i'm with you now LT. I didn't quite understand what he was saying he was up to. So he's not guaranteeing an outcome just improving his return if successful. Not much new about that concept either. I do it all the time and I'm guessing most cappers at SBR do too.

**brettd** · 01-28-10, 05:07 AM

So is this something that you guys commonly do? Find what you believe is a sharp line, and then betting slower moving lines at other books?

Then that leads to the question, how do you quantatively define/determine what a 'sharp' line is? It could be possible that the line you thought of as 'sharp' is actually more inefficient than the exchange price.

**PAPSMEAR** · 01-28-10, 05:11 AM

I find my play, sit on live odds, if the line moves down at other books I hammer my book before they wind it down. The obvious aspect to this is you need to make sure you don't play at a leading book that sets the odds. You need one that follows movement.
The only sharp line is a winning line IMO

**Justin7** · 01-28-10, 08:54 AM

This will work. You just pound slow-moving books. These books will resent it - it's mainly rec books that sleep through line moves. So yes, you can do this, but not for long.

**Busterflywheel** · 01-28-10, 09:14 AM

Great thread... although this is alot harder and time consuming than anyone has led to believe as of yet in this forum.. It's done daily though

**brettd** · 01-28-10, 09:30 AM

I was thinking of taking advantage of 'sharp' book lines sustainably by comparing them specfically to slow moving prices on betting exchanges. But who really has the 'sharper' price? Which leads first and influences the macro gambling environment? The chicken or the egg? The book or the betting exchange?

Justin, how do we go about quantitatively measuring the price efficency for any given market, for either a book or an exchange? One cannot really come to a determination as to who has a 'sharper' price, unless we compare analysis of efficency between any two given books or exchanges.

I just have no idea on how to start figuring this out!

**brettd** · 01-29-10, 12:42 AM

I just thought of a really rough way to gauge efficency. Would there be a positive correlation between maximum bet size and the sharpness of the line? I.E a $20k max bet at one book would have a line sharper than $2 max bet at another.

However, I think this would only be at best, a half measure as compared to quantitatively determining the efficency of a line.

**brettd** · 01-30-10, 07:18 PM

Bump. Justin7? Can anyone shed any insight on this?

**roasthawg** · 01-30-10, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by brettd

What do you guys think of comparing the lines of sharp sportbooks with any slow moving prices on betting exchanges? Is it possible to make a long-term edge doing this?

Say if a sportbook has price X for a selection, and an exchange has a price of Y, with the difference being greater than Z, can a long term edge be found?

Matchbook lines are the sharpest around... you will get crushed with this method. The reverse has a much better chance of working... that is use the exchange's price and find a book with a large enough difference and play the off number at the book.

**donjuan** · 01-30-10, 07:28 PM

I just thought of a really rough way to gauge efficency. Would there be a positive correlation between maximum bet size and the sharpness of the line? I.E a $20k max bet at one book would have a line sharper than $2 max bet at another.

However, I think this would only be at best, a half measure as compared to quantitatively determining the efficency of a line.

Pretty much, along with the juice taken. Usually a -104/-104 line with 10k limits is going to be more efficient than a -110/-110 line at 10k limits.

**brettd** · 01-30-10, 08:36 PM

Yeah, but there has to be an actual method in quantifying efficiency. One can say that one line is sharper than another, but how do we measure this?

**roasthawg** · 01-30-10, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by brettd

Yeah, but there has to be an actual method in quantifying efficiency. One can say that one line is sharper than another, but how do we measure this?

Track it yourself for awhile... the results will speak for themselves.

**brettd** · 01-30-10, 09:14 PM

I'm more than willing to. But once I have/get access to results, how do I then measure the data set?

I appreciate the answers by the way.

**Justin7** · 01-30-10, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Matchbook lines are the sharpest around... you will get crushed with this method. The reverse has a much better chance of working... that is use the exchange's price and find a book with a large enough difference and play the off number at the book.

Bingo!

**Justin7** · 01-30-10, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by brettd

Yeah, but there has to be an actual method in quantifying efficiency. One can say that one line is sharper than another, but how do we measure this?

At the close, look at the market average. That is the "pretty efficient price". The less a book moves, the more efficient (and good at predicting closers) it is.

Compare the closing average to each book's price 8 hours before close. How far is each book, on average, from its closer? Sloppy books have to move more to compensate for weaker openers (or move more when they overreact to a big bet).

**brettd** · 01-30-10, 11:26 PM

Ah, so let me clarify this.

Step 1: Take the market average price for any given market.

Step 2: Compare the market closing average to each book's price 8 hours before close.

Step 3: Then analyse what price distance each book's price was from its own closing price, or the closing average market price, or both?

Is that right?

**byronbb** · 01-31-10, 04:55 AM

Bets on a book like pinnacle or well seeded markets on matchbook can be taken as true market prices. Greek and Cris are also good to look at.

**Ruifgalmeida** · 01-31-10, 09:21 AM

one of my main bets is shopping for prices , in betfair is ridiculos you will get so much value in dogs that is a steall

**JohnnyC** · 01-31-10, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

At the close, look at the market average. That is the "pretty efficient price". The less a book moves, the more efficient (and good at predicting closers) it is.

Compare the closing average to each book's price 8 hours before close. How far is each book, on average, from its closer? Sloppy books have to move more to compensate for weaker openers (or move more when they overreact to a big bet).

Unless the Taiwanese are pickin sides.

**mintybetmachine** · 01-31-10, 12:04 PM

Make sure you know what you are doing. To make good money doing this you will need around a 5 figure amount to play with, and a wrong mouse click could send you flying off a bridge. Analyze and learn the markets, practice without money, then try using really small amounts to get the hang of it, and stay on your toes.

**roasthawg** · 01-31-10, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by brettd

I'm more than willing to. But once I have/get access to results, how do I then measure the data set?

I appreciate the answers by the way.

Backtest with kelly betting using the exchange number as the "true" line vs the books' off line.

**brettd** · 01-31-10, 07:54 PM

I was going to do the opposite. I was going to use 5 sharp books (Pinnacle, Greek, Diamond, Bet Cris, and Bookmaker), as the 'true' line, and compare this with Betfair prices. I was looking at the more obscure markets, where on Betfair, liquidity might be a bit more static than the books. I'm doing it in this sustainable way, as I don't want to get banned trying to target small books.

**Tomato** · 01-31-10, 08:03 PM

Tomato has been comparing Matchbook lines to dumb book lines for a while to feed him his plays. He has been making good money and has been banned/limited from several of these slow moving books.

**roasthawg** · 01-31-10, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by brettd

I was going to do the opposite. I was going to use 5 sharp books (Pinnacle, Greek, Diamond, Bet Cris, and Bookmaker), as the 'true' line, and compare this with Betfair prices. I was looking at the more obscure markets, where on Betfair, liquidity might be a bit more static than the books. I'm doing it in this sustainable way, as I don't want to get banned trying to target small books.

Go ahead and try it like that... I think you'll find that betfair outperforms the sharp books.

**Justin7** · 01-31-10, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by brettd

Ah, so let me clarify this.

Step 1: Take the market average price for any given market.

Step 2: Compare the market closing average to each book's price 8 hours before close.

Step 3: Then analyse what price distance each book's price was from its own closing price, or the closing average market price, or both?

Is that right?

#3: closing average market price.

Yes.

**brettd** · 01-31-10, 08:51 PM

cheers thanks justin

**mintybetmachine** · 01-31-10, 09:44 PM

I am not seeing this. So you if you see the big sharp books move line from -5 to -6, and you pound the snail books at -5?

**Ruifgalmeida** · 02-01-10, 12:56 PM

I am not seeing this. So you if you see the big sharp books move line from -5 to -6, and you pound the snail books at -5?

that is it, but youll get limited very quick

books are not that dumb, and the ones that are problably a scam

**spongerat** · 02-01-10, 01:22 PM

good info