What's the value of buying points on steamed games?

**Busterflywheel** · 01-15-10, 11:09 PM

I always buy the hook for the cheap costs and its well worth it..

**Thremp** · 01-16-10, 03:31 AM

Terrible.

**Patrick McIrish** · 01-16-10, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

I had the over tonight on the Brown/Yale game and got lucky because I bought a point and a half and it mattered. (Game went from 140 to 141 1/2 late.)

In the long run, is it a bad move? It cost me 30 cents to do it.

Affirmative.

**Patrick McIrish** · 01-16-10, 04:06 AM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

I had the over tonight on the Brown/Yale game and got lucky because I bought a point and a half and it mattered. (Game went from 140 to 141 1/2 late.)

In the long run, is it a bad move? It cost me 30 cents to do it.

Yes.

**Johnny 55** · 01-16-10, 06:58 AM

Half Pt. Calculator is your friend.

**LT Profits** · 01-16-10, 08:08 AM

HORRIBLE move on totals, sometimes worthwhile on Sides. Sure it mattered on the total last night, but that does not happen often enough to make up for extra juice.

**benjy** · 01-16-10, 10:44 AM

Absolutely negative EV. In the long run buying points on totals will kill you.

**Bluehorseshoe** · 01-16-10, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

HORRIBLE move on totals, sometimes worthwhile on Sides. Sure it mattered on the total last night, but that does not happen often enough to make up for extra juice.

It just happened again on my Delaware Over. It steamed up to 140 and it landed on 139.

**harsh506** · 01-16-10, 03:00 PM

yea its definatly not worth it in the long

**LT Profits** · 01-16-10, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe

It just happened again on my Delaware Over. It steamed up to 140 and it landed on 139.

Irrelevant, it does not change my point. You have to think long term, and buying points on totals is definitely -EV.

**20Four7** · 01-16-10, 03:35 PM

If your Brandon Lang it's +EV because it allows you to turn your losers into winners and sell more subscriptions to your service.

I rarely if at all buy points.

**Wrecktangle** · 01-17-10, 08:43 AM

Once upon a time, buying the hook on/off 3s in football was well worth it and depending on the costs 7s might have been OK too. This worked until the books discovered the true value of it and then ran up the cost of buying. The Aces Gold fiasco was in large part driven by sharps (even dulls like me) middling that book on NFL 3s. Now occasionally NFL 3 might be worth it, in other sports it calcs out to be -EV it seems.