Looking at BTP results. Only considering records of 12 weeks or more, at least 48 picks.
Last season 129 contestants played 12 weeks or more, and included at least 48 picks:
11 hit 60% or better.
21 hit 58% or better.
28 hit 57% or better.
38 hit 55% or better.
This season, with 278 players (!) playing 12 weeks or more, only:
12 hit 60% or better
22 or 23 hit 58% or better (1 game left)
35 hit 57% or better (1 game left)
Consistency. From last year's group how did the players who picked over 55% last season do this season? First percentage is last season, second percentage is this year. If you haven't seen this type of difference before, it's pretty shocking... (if there's only one number, the person either didn't play this year, didn't enter 48 picks, or was missed by yours truly).
jake38 67.3%
gerry 64.8% - 42.9%
aakj 64.3% - 55.0%
rta21 64.3% -37.9%
Sinister Cat 63.3% -47.1%
SexyMit 63.6% -39.7%
Boner_ 63.0%
losturmarbles 62.7% - 45.0%
Iceman 62.0% -57.6%
sharktank1 60.6%
Mudcat 60.0% - 50.0%
SilverFox8 59.3%
vbomber 59.3%
ertl09 59.3% -55.3%
Doc JS 59.2% -44.1%
inspades 58.8%
Hoja Verdes 58.7%
Ironhorses74 58.3%
pats3peat 58.2% - 50.0%
capitalist pig 58.2%
Dark Horse 58.2% - 52.6%
Willie Bee 57.7% - 41.2%
alta 57.7% - 58.6%
mr x 57.4%
Doug 57.1% -52.5%
Poker_Beast 57.1% -40.7%
rjt721 57.1% -45.5%
blackbart 57.1% - 42.9%
madworld 56.6% -50%
McBa1n 56.6% - 41.7%
Order66 56.4% - 31.5%
linebacker 56.4% -49.1%
hawk 5 56.4% - 47.5%
hhsilver 55.8% - 51.9%
ldrapeau 55.8%
jon13009 55.6% -52.5%
clarkd32 55.4% -50.8%
iwinyourmoney 55.4% -59.3%
This is a two-season comparison, and isn't meant to offer a complete picture. If I do this again next year, I will include those who picked 55% or higher this season. On this list only 9 players averaged 55% or higher over two seasons. For the 27 players with two qualifying records, the average drop in percentage from the previous season was a shocking 11%. The average drop for players hitting 60% or higher in the previous season was 16%! Players that hit from 55 to 59.9% dropped by an average of 9%. Books love these type of fluctuations. Kelly bettors not so much.
Last season 129 contestants played 12 weeks or more, and included at least 48 picks:
11 hit 60% or better.
21 hit 58% or better.
28 hit 57% or better.
38 hit 55% or better.
This season, with 278 players (!) playing 12 weeks or more, only:
12 hit 60% or better
22 or 23 hit 58% or better (1 game left)
35 hit 57% or better (1 game left)
Consistency. From last year's group how did the players who picked over 55% last season do this season? First percentage is last season, second percentage is this year. If you haven't seen this type of difference before, it's pretty shocking... (if there's only one number, the person either didn't play this year, didn't enter 48 picks, or was missed by yours truly).
jake38 67.3%
gerry 64.8% - 42.9%
aakj 64.3% - 55.0%
rta21 64.3% -37.9%
Sinister Cat 63.3% -47.1%
SexyMit 63.6% -39.7%
Boner_ 63.0%
losturmarbles 62.7% - 45.0%
Iceman 62.0% -57.6%
sharktank1 60.6%
Mudcat 60.0% - 50.0%
SilverFox8 59.3%
vbomber 59.3%
ertl09 59.3% -55.3%
Doc JS 59.2% -44.1%
inspades 58.8%
Hoja Verdes 58.7%
Ironhorses74 58.3%
pats3peat 58.2% - 50.0%
capitalist pig 58.2%
Dark Horse 58.2% - 52.6%
Willie Bee 57.7% - 41.2%
alta 57.7% - 58.6%
mr x 57.4%
Doug 57.1% -52.5%
Poker_Beast 57.1% -40.7%
rjt721 57.1% -45.5%
blackbart 57.1% - 42.9%
madworld 56.6% -50%
McBa1n 56.6% - 41.7%
Order66 56.4% - 31.5%
linebacker 56.4% -49.1%
hawk 5 56.4% - 47.5%
hhsilver 55.8% - 51.9%
ldrapeau 55.8%
jon13009 55.6% -52.5%
clarkd32 55.4% -50.8%
iwinyourmoney 55.4% -59.3%
This is a two-season comparison, and isn't meant to offer a complete picture. If I do this again next year, I will include those who picked 55% or higher this season. On this list only 9 players averaged 55% or higher over two seasons. For the 27 players with two qualifying records, the average drop in percentage from the previous season was a shocking 11%. The average drop for players hitting 60% or higher in the previous season was 16%! Players that hit from 55 to 59.9% dropped by an average of 9%. Books love these type of fluctuations. Kelly bettors not so much.
