NBA Simulations

[suicidekings]

Myself and a couple of the guys in the NBA forum have been playing around with NBA simulations this season, and we each have our own independent working models now. However, they are basic, and don't include additional factors like days of rest. After crunching the numbers for this season, I've come up with the following averages based on MOV in all games shown. My results (slightly adjusted) are below. I was wondering if anyone has done any work on NBA modelling including rest and can tell me if I'm way off base with these numbers or on the right track?

Rest Adjustments
A) B2B Game 1: -1.5pts
B) B2B Game 2: -3pts
C) 3rd Game in 4 Days: -1pt
D) 4th Game in 5 Days: -3pts
E) 4th Game in 6 Days: -2pts
F) B2B Game 2 is on the Road: -1pt

Example

[ HM GM ] [ RD GM ] [ REST ] [ RD GM ] [ HM GM ] [ REST ] [ HM GM ]
= [ A ] [ B + F ] [ / ] [ A + C ] [ B + D ] [ / ] [ E ]
= [ -1.5 ] [ -4.5 ] [ / ] [ -2.5 ] [ -6 ] [ / ] [ -2 ]

[LT Profits]

Is B+F supposed to be -4 or is F supposed to be -1.5? I am referring to second game of sequence.

[Fishhead]

What is your main stimulation in doing these simulations?

Money, the challenge, or something else?

Also, do you play offshore currently?

[MonkeyF0cker]

You're gonna want more than this season's data for this. What is your standard error in each category? I can't imagine your sample size is nearly large enough.

[bustabook]

money... i assume he agrees with you that his sample size isn't large enough.. but i think he is asking if anyone else has tested this further and can prove/disprove these numbers.

I was wondering if anyone has done any work on NBA modelling including rest and can tell me if I'm way off base with these numbers or on the right track?

[Fishhead]

what is your main stimulation in doing these simulations?

Money, the challenge, or something else?

Also, do you play offshore currently?

bump

[Wrecktangle]

it's all about the money...now

[Fishhead]

it's all about the money...now

If that's the case, his efforts would be best served elsewhere.

[CFA]

There are many NBA sim models out there that beat the close. There were probably 5x as many 3 years ago.

[Indecent]

If that's the case, his efforts would be best served elsewhere.

If you have no idea what you are talking about it's best not to pretend that you do.

[20Four7]

Fishy doesn't have to know what he's talking about he's a pro...... everyone needs to realize that..... that's why he left player talk for the Fish tank.

[Wrecktangle]

Let's get something straight: middlers, scalpers, and line chasers are NOT handicappers. Fishy is one of these.

You can be very successful as a chaser and not know shit about capping a game.

Back in the early 2000s we had a guy that went by the handle of Reno at MW; great middler, but a bone-headed 'capper. And the crowd worshiped him.

[ICE-BLOOD]

might want to also look at the home-away sequence for B2B

B2B away then away
B2B away then home
B2B home then away
B2B home then home

[suicidekings]

Is B+F supposed to be -4 or is F supposed to be -1.5? I am referring to second game of sequence.

Supposed to be -4. My mistake.

You're gonna want more than this season's data for this. What is your standard error in each category? I can't imagine your sample size is nearly large enough.

Absolutely. I know I need a lot more data to do this properly. Just trying to figure out if I'm going about this in the right manner (assuming more data, etc) or if I should abandon it for other aspects that will be more successful/helpful.

I've shelved the B2B adjustments for the moment to spend time on other things.