Line movement

**xyz** · 12-12-09, 11:25 PM

If you know which way the line is going to move, it is as good as knowing the outcome of the game before the game starts. So it will not be easy to find ways to predict line movements consistently.

Originally posted by mintybetmachine

In what direction do lines generally move from time time of release until game time? I have been looking at past results and cannot find a correlation, seems to be random, sometimes moves towards favorites, other times underdog, but maybe I am wrong?

To clarify, this is what I mean: If Celtics -2 @ Lakers released 24 hours prior to game time, would you expect it to end up being around -4 or -0(pk) at game time?

Thanks a lot!

**BubbleBobble** · 12-12-09, 11:56 PM

We all would drink cocktails on the Bahamas, right here and now, if we could predict line movements with a great accuracy

**Masu485** · 12-13-09, 12:40 AM

i've heard there's a way to predict the closing line using a math formula, but i dont think it's extremely accurate. does anyone know?

**Rich Boy** · 12-13-09, 02:32 AM

It really depends on the market, but generally speaking you cant predict how the line will move, unless your the one moving lines, and I doubt you would be asking this question if you were.

**dogman** · 12-13-09, 10:05 AM

Note the opening line and see which way the line moves after that, it will usually move in the same direction. In your example if the Celtics move to -2 1/2 off the opner of -2, it is more likely to go to -3 than -2. This is especially true with totals.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-13-09, 10:41 AM

There is simply no way of knowing. If you did, you could make a ton of money middling. Here is an example, using today,s NFL lines. From opening until now, 7 lines have gone up (none more than 1 1/2 points), 4 have gone down (none more than 1 point), 3 have remained the same, and 1 has switched favorites (From Kansas City to Buffalo). That is about as mixed as you are going to get.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-13-09, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by dogman

Note the opening line and see which way the line moves after that, it will usually move in the same direction. In your example if the Celtics move to -2 1/2 off the opner of -2, it is more likely to go to -3 than -2. This is especially true with totals.

I can only speak about football, but in football, you will see the line move one way, and then drift back to the original opener. Examples: New Mexico Bowl. Fresno opens atg -13.5, drops to -11,and is now - 12. Emerald Bowl. USC opens at -7, goes to -9, now at -8. Now obiously this does not happen in every game. There really is no set rule. But on average, the lines will moe, then tend to drift back to their original numbers. I have seen totals normally go lower and then drift back, but again, this is just on average. There are all kinds of exceptions.

**jeepsguy004** · 12-14-09, 01:43 PM

Lines are moving all the time in sports due to the money coming in on them. Line makers want 50 50 action on both sides so when one loses and the other wins they still come out ahead because of the juice. It is all about where the money is going. You will never find out either on the internet on where the money is going. You can find out how many bets are being placed on each side or what % is on each side but you will never know the amount of money that is coming in on each side.

**ericc** · 12-16-09, 10:38 AM

Generally, the public likes favorites so the line should move to make it more risky on the favorite.

**durito** · 12-16-09, 11:01 AM

The line will move towards fair value.

All you have do know then is what price that is. Good luck with that.

**CFA** · 12-16-09, 04:32 PM

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**CFA** · 12-16-09, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by ericc

Generally, the public likes favorites so the line should move to make it more risky on the favorite.

Mature markets do not leave "public biases uncorrected.

Having a +EV model is a great tool in predicting line movement.

**suicidekings** · 12-16-09, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I can only speak about football, but in football, you will see the line move one way, and then drift back to the original opener. Examples: New Mexico Bowl. Fresno opens atg -13.5, drops to -11,and is now - 12. Emerald Bowl. USC opens at -7, goes to -9, now at -8. Now obiously this does not happen in every game. There really is no set rule. But on average, the lines will moe, then tend to drift back to their original numbers. I have seen totals normally go lower and then drift back, but again, this is just on average. There are all kinds of exceptions.

The motion described above is pretty typical though in football & basketball.

Unless you have complete data on how a line moved, any attempt at drawing conclusions from just the opening & closing numbers will fail. You're still contending with public betting favourites skewing your results and determining which side of the spread has greater initial value is somewhat subjective due to a lot of random variables. But in general, one side gets bet on until the value is gone (often past the balance point), and then the other side gets more attractive, whether its caused by steam or by natural market activity.

All it really takes is one opinionated bettor/syndicate with a big roll to move a line early and that movement doesn't necessarily indicate true value.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-16-09, 08:55 PM

"All it really takes is one opinionated bettor/syndicate with a big roll to move a line early and that movement doesn't necessarily indicate true value."

Exactly, and that is why a very few can control the masses. Remember, syndicate wagers count as one wager, just like your wagers do. But syndicates have huge advantages. They can wager on the "leadout" lines, which are the "openers" that most people can not wager one. By successfully knowing what Joe Pub will do (someting that is not nearly as difficult as it sounds), you can set up a lot of middles, which is the best way to maximize your rewards while minimumizing your risks.

Another things that syndicates can do is control the line movement. They can, and often do, intentionally make small wagers in hopes of Joe Pub jumping on. When Joe Pub does jump on, and sends the odds going the way the big syndicates want them to go, the syndicates jump on the opposing team big time. The old "bait and switch" trick. It works all the time.

Here is a little someting that few of you would probably think about. If you go to your favorite restaurant, and take care of your favorite waiter/waitress, he/she will take care of you. A generous tip will get you extra large portions, a free drink, amybe a free desert,and other favors. It works the same way in casinos and sports books. Put a few exra bucks out for the dealers when you play a backjack hand occasionally and see how they give you every extra chance of winning that they can. The same holds true in the sportsbook. Tip the ticket writers after a nice win, and they will try their hardest to make sure that you cash more winning tickets in. This is huge if you are wagering on sporting events, because the information that they give you can be very valuable. You can't do this with your offshore book, which is why anyone who plays big money should play in Vegas.