Compared to say College Basketball Lines that move a ton.
Anyone have theories on that?
Anyone have theories on that?
-
-
For just one thing, there are many more teams to handicap...........by a large margin.
Secondly, there are times where the difference in talent is considerable in CBB compared to that of the NFL............
You do not see any -40 pt. favorites in the NFLComment -
well, a least not since the 70s, fish-sticks
Comment -
Way higher maximums and volume on NFL will make the bookmakers work harder on those numbers.Comment -
they want you to win on saturdays, so you come back on sunday to give it all back
Comment -
Fish hit on one reason which is the amount of games. It's also every single night. Much harder to set sharp lines for 60+ games 7 nights a week than 14 games one day a week and one or two week games. Also, most people don't put in their NFL bets until late in the week and a lot of times all the value has been pounded out of the lines by then.
I just generally think there is more volatility with college basketball games played every night than football games played by paid professionals once a week and that accounts for sharper lines in the NFL.Comment -
Same idea of small cap stocks versus Dow stocks.Comment -
The high limits are due to the high amount of public information and the volume and efficiency of the markets.Comment -
NFL is rigged. The lines are set up by the league and then the league gives the refs instructions on how to set up the final scores.Comment -
Fun and games aside, you've been here less than a month pal. Why don't you settle down before telling Pavy where he should and shouldn't go on SBR.Comment -
Cause i could care less if a square and spammer has been here 1 week or 10 years.
Those dumb****s ruin the last place that was fun on SBR, so there is nothing more that can be lost her for me.
So i might as well tell them to go fvkk themselves for doing it, with or without the jellobiafra police.Comment -
I think everybody could use a deep breath or two. You guys are spazzing out like it's the night before the Science Fair and somebody stole your shadow box.
If you drama queens could relax for a day or two you might see that this will all blow over, and you'll have your quiet little nerd board back to normal come Monday or so.Comment -
NFL games per week: 13 to 16
NBA games per week: about 50
MLB games per week: about 100
The sharpness of the lines in each league is directly related to these numbers. So is the time investment required to profit consistently (not one or two seasons) in each league. I can do very well in MLB on less than 30 minutes per day. For the NFL, especially the first half of the season, that's closer to 30 hours per week.
Of course, the smaller number of games makes the influence of luck greater. Five big zebra calls in your favor one year, and the same five calls against you the next season can be the difference between a 52-48 or a 57-43 ATS season. In other leagues that type of luck evens out over the course of the season.Last edited by Dark Horse; 12-06-09, 02:26 AM.Comment -
less points scoredComment -
The lines really aren't trying to really predict who's going to win and by how much, but what the public thinks is going to happen. The book wants equal payouts on each team... they don't really care who wins. With the NFL, there's tons of people to bet on all the games. In college BB, there are fewer betters per game, so they need to adjust the line more to keep things balanced.Comment -
Probably the #1 reason the lines are so sharp is the basic effieceny of the market the NFL provides..........it is the #1 sport in volume by far in the U.S.
If your betting the NFL, or any sport for that matter, I highly recommend you wager with a low cost exchange such as Matchbook.........it will save and make you tons of money.Comment -
first, how we to measure the 'sharpness' of a line? one with little to no movement? we can't use results to measure the accuracy of a line as it is only one event instead of the hundreds that would need to be run to determine the fair line of a contest. was the Pit 14 vs Oakland a terrible line? why did it go to 15? where would we find the median of results if Pit and Oakland played 100 games?
second, market size. the NFL betting market is Wal-mart and college baskets is the guy selling oranges off the freeway. how far is a $5K bet moving a line when millions of dollars on placed on each side? how far does that $5K go when fulfilling your citrus requirements?
third, lines in college hoops will begin to tighten more and more as the season progresses and you will most likely see much smaller line movements in Feb than you do in November.Comment -
Who wants to calculate value in Live-betting odds?
nevermind that, new threadComment -
Some of the NFL line-making is also inherrant to the nature of the game - i.e. games getting locked in and around on key #'s. You could have almost predicted a week 13 line of Steelers -10 or Colts -7. Obviously not true for all games, but that takes care of 20-30% of the line opens.Comment -
Some ver interestong theories, but the fact is that the LVSC who makes these lines do so far in advance, and then constantly tweak the lines before making them available on the Sunday Afternoon, when they appear for the following weeks games. They do the same with college football. They can not do this with hoops, because there are way too many games to do this with. The Pro Football games are by far, the easiest to predict. A good example is Dallas and San Diego. The future was Dallas -3. The current line is Dallas -3. It will remain 3, barring any imjuries or unforseen circumstances, until hell freezes over. Indy may not budge for it's 7 point spread over Denver. Last week, the opening and ending lines for 5 games was identical. Another 7 moved by 1 point or less. On Week 12, only 2 games had a line that did not move, but 11 other lines moved by 1 point or less. Week 10 had 5 lines that did not move, and one that moved by 2 points. Every other line moved by 1/2 to 1 point. The books have enough problems with the sharpes that play the mniddles with college football. They will not tolerate it in the pros. There just is not much movement. This goes back to Week 1.Comment -
NFL Lines are sharp as hell because it's very popular..
NFL is Vegas' moneymaker..
That's why my favourite sports are hockey and baseball
Comment -
Inconsistency in the league, short season, injuries, high interest by the public, weather & widely different venues.Comment
