Underdog value

**Facepunch** · 11-17-09, 06:13 PM

I dont think it is profitable to do any blanket actions, IE all overs Monday night, all unders week nights.
always taking double digit dogs @ home.

It is a fallacy to put so much stock into the "position" day of the week stage of the moon etc.

sure take those things as a starting point, but stop looking for an end all catch all way to beat the book.
Cap the games, and you'll do fine.

and for the love of god stop all this public vs. sharp nonsense.

**xyz** · 11-17-09, 06:48 PM

No to all three questions. If any of them were true, it would be too easy.

**suicidekings** · 11-17-09, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by kokky

Does underdog ~~always~~ has bigger chance of winning then the line shows?

Sometimes, yes. It's not uncommon for top teams to have inflated lines regardless of their current form & schedule. But like anything, you have to pick your spots. There are no "always" in sports.

**UMAGA** · 11-17-09, 08:03 PM

If you were to just stick to underdogs, you will do better. I know of guys who just pick dogs every season and always comes out ahead.

**Moonpie0954** · 11-17-09, 08:19 PM

Go with ur gut feeling and research.

**20Four7** · 11-17-09, 10:18 PM

Remember a dog can win more ways than a favourite (for spread sports)

Dog wins outright (WIN)
Dog loses but covers (WIN)
Dog really loses (loss)

**filter15** · 11-18-09, 01:09 AM

yea but a favorite has a better chance% of winning
obviously dogs dont win 66%

**20Four7** · 11-18-09, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by filter15

yea but a favorite has a better chance% of winning
obviously dogs dont win 66%

and you think Favourites win at a 66% clip..... let me book that action.......

**20Four7** · 11-18-09, 04:06 AM

And don't forget big public teams like the cowboys take a lot of action, if they should be +9 they will probably be +6.5 simply because ppl will bet them anyways. And the book knows the value of the 7.

**iceminers26** · 11-18-09, 04:27 AM

Flip a coin, best system out there.

**twincities77** · 11-18-09, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Facepunch

...stop all this public vs. sharp nonsense ...

Explain please

**iceminers26** · 11-18-09, 05:50 PM

TC Aviator

**Facepunch** · 11-18-09, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by twincities77

Explain please

It is a fallacy, it is akin to a narrative fallacy where every action needs a story to go along with it.

it assumes that Vegas knows beyond a shadow of a doubt what the outcome of the game is going to be.

While they are very accurate, it is ridiculous to think that they have the sports almanac from back to the future 2.

Biff is not making the lines. Vegas is not omnipotent.

People out think themselves on this all the time.

just my 2 cents .

and it is my Opinion, so if you have a method that includes what the "sharps" are doing and it is working, more power to you, I just don't prescribe to that sort of thing.

**arwar** · 11-19-09, 01:15 AM

dogs cover 51.5% in nfl, but this is not enough of an edge to offset the vig. action usually is 3 times on the favorite as the dog. that has nothing to say about sharp/square action because they can be on the same side.

**byronbb** · 11-20-09, 06:30 AM

On square books you will usually get more value on underdogs, especially if they are playing a public team. It surprises me that the public loves favorites. Coming into sports betting I expected the opposite to be true because everyone loves an underdog story. Not so I guess when their money is on the line....HA.

**THE PROFIT** · 11-27-09, 03:09 AM

It has been proven & stated this season that lines have been inflated. In the NFL favs were covering like hell first part of season. About 3-4 weeks ago you saw the change when about 3 or 4 favs was all that covered. Reason is, books had to start raising lines on teams like saints, pats, giants to get any action on the dog. It's the same for public teams as was mentioned. There's some teams everyone just want to bet on, & it gets worse with a local book. For instance, If you live in Blacksburg, VA & Pinnacle has VT -13.5 your local will most likely have it at 14.5 & will move to 15 to 15.5 by gametime or higher. He cant get any action on the otherside cause all his action is from hokie fans who will bet on them no matter what & will not bet against them!

**arwar** · 11-27-09, 09:51 AM

I am in Blacksburg VA and the line may vary 1/2 point but there is a lot of contrary backlash action against Tech, especially this week against UVA. In fact Pinny has VA Tech at -16 where the locals have had them at -13 all week. But your premise about a regional line is generally correct. Like BAL v IND a couple of weeks ago. It opened in Vegas with Bal a -1 fav and closed with IND -1 1/2, but all around DC & mid atlantic Bal closed as fav. Also, it is a fallacy that the book needs balanced action on both sides of a single play. What the book needs is balanced action across all plays, not just one game. If he had say 10-20 times the action on Tech as other plays in the rotation then the balance would be off and a layoff might be in order. All the book is after is to have the average $ play to be the same on all plays whether they are against each other or not.

**THE PROFIT** · 11-28-09, 01:31 AM

Originally posted by arwar

I am in Blacksburg VA and the line may vary 1/2 point but there is a lot of contrary backlash action against Tech, especially this week against UVA. In fact Pinny has VA Tech at -16 where the locals have had them at -13 all week. But your premise about a regional line is generally correct. Like BAL v IND a couple of weeks ago. It opened in Vegas with Bal a -1 fav and closed with IND -1 1/2, but all around DC & mid atlantic Bal closed as fav. Also, it is a fallacy that the book needs balanced action on both sides of a single play. What the book needs is balanced action across all plays, not just one game. If he had say 10-20 times the action on Tech as other plays in the rotation then the balance would be off and a layoff might be in order. All the book is after is to have the average $ play to be the same on all plays whether they are against each other or not.

You're exactly right bro, I was just giving a generality. Even money on all fav & all dog is the same. Love Blacksburg, one of my favorite towns. I live down in the Tri-Cities outside of Bristol.