Question about opening & closing price & line movement

[JohnAnthony]

I watched a video here called "do you have an edge in sports betting?" which said that if on even money bets you beat the closing price by 0.02 then you are set to be a winner (if you pick high enough %)

But then I heard some contradicting stuff from friends, so I'd really appreciate you clearing up this for me.

Today's NBA:

Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns pk opened at +100, I thought it was good so I took it.

now it's at -128. (I know it's not the closing line, but let's assume it'll be)

What does that say about my bet? (not as in win/lose) is that what the SBR member referred to when he said "beat the closing line"? what else can I learn about opening & closing lines, line movement (& perhaps bookie manipulation..?)


Your help is much appreciated,
J.A

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Your Suns +100 number is smoking.

The median closer on Suns was -120. Your bet was roughly 4.5% ahead of the market.

If you could produce results anywhere near that moving forward you will certainly be on the Forbes Top 50 wealthiest list within a short period of time.

[JohnAnthony]

Your Suns +100 number is smoking.

The median closer on Suns was -120. Your bet was roughly 4.5% ahead of the market.

If you could produce results anywhere near that moving forward you will certainly be on the Forbes Top 50 wealthiest list within a short period of time.

Uhh, I'm sorry - but was that meant to be sarcastic? no offense, but with all the funny guys here a beginner sports-bettor (finally admitting that) like me is often easily confused.

If it was, then nice one, if it wasn't..well, thanks

[JohnAnthony]

The median closer on Suns was -120.

And forgive me if this sounds too stupid, but where exactly do you find that median close? when is close REALLY determined?

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Uhh, I'm sorry - but was that meant to be sarcastic? no offense, but with all the funny guys here a beginner sports-bettor (finally admitting that) like me is often easily confused.

If it was, then nice one, if it wasn't..well, thanks

I wasnt kidding. I tell it just the way it is. Very little chance you could produce the same results moving forward. However, if you do, you could quit your day job.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

And forgive me if this sounds too stupid, but where exactly do you find that median close? when is close REALLY determined?

The closer is determined by the final market price when the game kicks/tips off.

I use Pinnaclesports.com for my closers as most major markets there have the highest liquidity and the sharpest players playing there.

To get the median close just take the average of the lay and take price.

Example: If the Suns game closed the following

Phoenix -125
Wizards +115

The median would be -120. You laid +100. Your bet at +100 is 4.54% better than the closer of -120.

Hope this helps.

[IrishTim]

Helpful, mathematically backed post for a beginner. What the think tank is all about.

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks OSUCOWBOYS! glad you weren't kidding, and glad the Suns won!

another question: is there way to check what WAS the closing price after the game has started/already ended?

[Johnny 55]

SBR Lines my friend, simplest thing in the world.

[durito]

The closer is determined by the final market price when the game kicks/tips off.

I use Pinnaclesports.com for my closers as most major markets there have the highest liquidity and the sharpest players playing there.

To get the median close just take the average of the lay and take price.

Example: If the Suns game closed the following

Phoenix -125
Wizards +115

The median would be -120. You laid +100. Your bet at +100 is 4.54% better than the closer of -120.

Hope this helps.

no

[luigi]

assuming -125/+115 were the pinnacle closing lines, you would take the overround and determine that the "fair" odds would be -119.4 for the home team..

the .6 off from what osucowboys doesn't seem like much, but on games featuring larger favorites the disparity will be more noticeable..

for example the wizards are playing the heat tonight and are +285/-315 on pinnacle... using the overround the "fair" price would be +292/-292

the overround helps account for the house edge. i hope this helps

[Thremp]

no

To expand on this: You should read the Ganchrow article on No-Vig pricing.

[JohnAnthony]

Thank you guys for all the explanantions but I'm afraid I'm confused by all the different opinions here and would really appreciate a detailed answer for someone who isn't bet-savvy.

* Today I got Heat (-6.5) vs Wizards at 1.92, now the spread is 8 and Heat (-8) is at 1.935. I figure I got a very good price, but how do I figure how good of a price exactly. In other words, how do you compare your edge on the closing price when the spread changes?

* I'm still confused on how to calculate the median closing price..? what is an overround? (English isn't my 1st language)

You should read the Ganchrow article on No-Vig pricing.

Couldn't find it =/

* by how many cents/percentages do I need to beat the closing line (which I still don't know how to calculate) in order to do well?

Looking at yesterday's game between Suns and 76ers:

I got Suns ML for 2.00
I still can't find the closing price at sbrodds.com but I think it was something like 1.85

this means I beat the closing line by 0.15 cents or %8.5? how good is that?

Thanks for your patience with me,
JA

[luigi]

to explain that whole overround thing, ganchrow did give an excellent synopsis on what it means on giving a "no-vig" line.. i'll hope to do .09% as good a job explaining it as ganch did..

so let's say you have the example with a ml dog of +285 and a Favorite of -315

if you convert those two numbers into percentages and add them together you'll end up getting a number over 100 (101.8%). This number accounts for what's called the Theoretical Hold Percentage. In this case pinnacles theoretical hold is 1.84% (theoretical because it implies equal monies wagered on both sides)

obviously you want the fair line to end up equaling a number that would add to 100%, so you can normalize the number by taking the moneyline equivalents by taking the original moneylines (+285/-315) and convert them into decimal probabilities (+285=.2597) and (-315= .759), and divide each number by the overound (in this case 1.018) and multiply by 100, which will give you the no-vig wining percentage..just convert that back to a normal line and you'd have the no-vig line..

attached is a little spreadsheet which should help automate the process..

on row 10 of the spreadsheet, u can just enter the lines and see the Theoretical hold for the book.

i hope this was helpful

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks luigi, but what is the importance of this in what I'm trying to accomplish? (knowing if I really beat the closing line or not)

[BubbleBobble]

Atm the sharpest closing lines are probably not on Pinnacle, but on Matchbook.
The markets there tend to be very sharp.

[bleedblue]

It's just something you should know, and OSUCowboys was incorrectly calculating the no-vig closing line.

To answer your questions check out the half point calculator. Put in the closing line, and see how that compares to the line you got.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

to explain that whole overround thing, ganchrow did give an excellent synopsis on what it means on giving a "no-vig" line.. i'll hope to do .09% as good a job explaining it as ganch did..

so let's say you have the example with a ml dog of +285 and a Favorite of -315

if you convert those two numbers into percentages and add them together you'll end up getting a number over 100 (101.8%). This number accounts for what's called the Theoretical Hold Percentage. In this case pinnacles theoretical hold is 1.84% (theoretical because it implies equal monies wagered on both sides)

obviously you want the fair line to end up equaling a number that would add to 100%, so you can normalize the number by taking the moneyline equivalents by taking the original moneylines (+285/-315) and convert them into decimal probabilities (+285=.2597) and (-315= .759), and divide each number by the overound (in this case 1.018) and multiply by 100, which will give you the no-vig wining percentage..just convert that back to a normal line and you'd have the no-vig line..

attached is a little spreadsheet which should help automate the process..

on row 10 of the spreadsheet, u can just enter the lines and see the Theoretical hold for the book.

i hope this was helpful

Thank you for taking time to explain this. I now see where my math was "off". I apologize for posting inaccurate information.

Great work in this thread sans Durito. "No." might be a complete sentence but it is not completely helpful. Why take the time to reply but not correct someone who might have an error in their computations? Weak.

[pokernut9999]

That is Durito for you.

[IrishTim]

to explain that whole overround thing, ganchrow did give an excellent synopsis on what it means on giving a "no-vig" line.. i'll hope to do .09% as good a job explaining it as ganch did..

so let's say you have the example with a ml dog of +285 and a Favorite of -315

if you convert those two numbers into percentages and add them together you'll end up getting a number over 100 (101.8%). This number accounts for what's called the Theoretical Hold Percentage. In this case pinnacles theoretical hold is 1.84% (theoretical because it implies equal monies wagered on both sides)

obviously you want the fair line to end up equaling a number that would add to 100%, so you can normalize the number by taking the moneyline equivalents by taking the original moneylines (+285/-315) and convert them into decimal probabilities (+285=.2597) and (-315= .759), and divide each number by the overound (in this case 1.018) and multiply by 100, which will give you the no-vig wining percentage..just convert that back to a normal line and you'd have the no-vig line..

attached is a little spreadsheet which should help automate the process..

on row 10 of the spreadsheet, u can just enter the lines and see the Theoretical hold for the book.

i hope this was helpful

Good explanation, but that spreadsheet is money.

[durito]

Thank you for taking time to explain this. I now see where my math was "off". I apologize for posting inaccurate information.

Great work in this thread sans Durito. "No." might be a complete sentence but it is not completely helpful. Why take the time to reply but not correct someone who might have an error in their computations? Weak.

Sorry, I was traveling 22 hours today and was gonna get back to your PM when I got in.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/12142-introduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html

[durito]

That is Durito for you.

Steps

1) Read this http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html

2) Read this http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...rcentages.html

3) Repeat steps 1 and 2 several times before posting in the think tank again

[IrishTim]

Where has Ganch gone? Justin's got his vids which are outstanding, but wish threads like those were still being created.

[OSUCOWBOYS]

Sorry, I was traveling 22 hours today and was gonna get back to your PM when I got in.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html

Steps

1) Read this http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html

2) Read this http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...rcentages.html

3) Repeat steps 1 and 2 several times before posting in the think tank again

Thank you.

[JohnAnthony]

Thanks everyone!