what is more profitable long term

**roasthawg** · 11-03-09, 01:51 AM

Neither... hold your original position unless you feel the new line is +ev.

**RickySteve** · 11-03-09, 01:54 AM

I'd rather have 2 point middle than 1% guaranteed. I'd rather have 3% guaranteed than a 1½ point middle.

**Peeig** · 11-03-09, 07:47 AM

For me, since I have a small bankroll, the arb would be better as it would be more +EG.....it depends

**dimon** · 11-03-09, 10:20 AM

Ok I am sure people already take advantage in that by now....but here is the deal, one book offer lines on certain NBA games such as -130, and +110...so with low vig there is a way to create middle and win both ways if middle hits, or just sit back and arb all day

**TomG** · 11-03-09, 04:46 PM

The middle is more profitable long term. That's because books charge slightly more vig for buying/selling points to create a perfect arbitrage. That extra vig cuts into your long term profitability. As a result, the middle has the higher EV but the arb has the higher EG. The difference is small, though, so it doesn't really matter what you do. Most people's risk profile tends to prefer the perfect arb so that's what they do.

**IrishTim** · 11-03-09, 04:52 PM

I'd take the middle

**dimon** · 11-03-09, 05:12 PM

Ok I can get one team at -5 and another one at +7 for the same vig -110

So my possible loss is only 5%...gain can be 45% if one pushes and 95% if the middle hit...so it is very good I think to create and jump into the middle.

My question is how to do it so the books won't ban and continue to offer such lucrative lines

thanks

**Waiting4Godot** · 11-03-09, 06:45 PM

My question is how to do it so the books won't ban and continue to offer such lucrative lines

Perhaps I'm missing something, but why not place the bets different books?

**dimon** · 11-03-09, 10:39 PM

that's what I plan on doing...like today it won't matter both games where I got a better odds lost by more that the spread/middle, so both games casing the loss of 5% of the bets...but do you still think that taking the middle will be better strategy

**Arilou** · 11-04-09, 11:46 AM

Don't worry about whether you have a middle or a pure arb, just figure out what you think the points are worth and make the best bets you can.

**Pancho sanza** · 11-04-09, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by dimon

take a middle of 1.5-2 points in an NBA game with regular vig -110 and -107 or so

or arb and make a guaranteed 1-3%?

thanks

answer depends on how much you can get down on each option.

**shantystar** · 11-05-09, 02:40 AM

soccer

**MacAttack13** · 11-05-09, 01:42 PM

Well take baseball with the 1.5 runs line. I believe something like 21% of the games landed on 1 run. So if you were to bet every game on both teams in each game +1.5 runs you could make money if you had the right money management. I would think you could so the same for just about any sports (PRO).

I like middles but only in football. I do like the idea of using say NBA games. IT does seem that many games land within 2 points of the spread (which would be 4 points if you bought 2 points each way.

**Rich Boy** · 11-06-09, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by MacAttack13

Well take baseball with the 1.5 runs line. I believe something like 21% of the games landed on 1 run. So if you were to bet every game on both teams in each game +1.5 runs you could make money if you had the right money management. I would think you could so the same for just about any sports (PRO).

I like middles but only in football. I do like the idea of using say NBA games. IT does seem that many games land within 2 points of the spread (which would be 4 points if you bought 2 points each way.

Is there an award for biggest square at SBR? This guy is the front runner for sure...

**dimon** · 11-06-09, 09:53 AM

Ok guys here is the deal...let me know if you will take it...me personally I love this

game tonight, middle of 2.5 points and here is the best part odds are only -120, and another one between -110 to -115

**dimon** · 11-06-09, 09:56 AM

will you play this?

NBA game middle of 2.5 points odds are -120 and (-110 to -115)

Should be very close game...taking into consideration of the worst case scenario max loss seems to be right at 8.5% of the bet...

any suggestion on how to improve such scenario maybe?