Do you trust this guy?

**whatsgood5** · 11-01-09, 04:33 PM

I don't know, but thats a creative URL

**MrX** · 11-01-09, 04:47 PM

I don't know. With an Ivy League PHD I'd expect him to hit at least 98.5%.

**whatsgood5** · 11-01-09, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by noober

http://www.******************.com/?hop=1timeprice I doubt anyone would share a system that is working so I am sceptical. What do you think? Edit: Looks like the site would not appear but I am talking about a guy with PHD in stats from an Ivy League school who claims to have a system in baseball thats winning 97% of the time and made him a huge fortune.

Oh that's John Morrison. It's a chase system. I haven't tried it but from what Ive read from some people it works. I've read from others that it's a terrible idea. So I can't really help ya with this one.

**noober** · 11-01-09, 04:54 PM

Yeah that's John Morisson. What is a chase system?

**whatsgood5** · 11-01-09, 04:58 PM

Im not completely familiar with it, but from what Ive read it seems like this

bets $10 on team A
if they lose, bet $25 on team B
if they lose, bet $45 on team C
if they lose, bet $90 on team D

I think he caps it at 6 games, which is why he doesn't have much losses. His system is usually something like take a team on a road trip for all six games and buy X amount of points. A very risky system IMO.

**Flying Dutchman** · 11-01-09, 05:14 PM

Trust=NO

**RaisyDaisy** · 11-01-09, 05:15 PM

He is playing the odds, but you have to be really consistenet and not back off. I seen alot of people with chase systems with different variations, but you can't be an action kind of bettor.

**noober** · 11-01-09, 05:22 PM

So chasing systems are based on the martingale system? Read Nassim Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" and you will never use it.

**OSUCOWBOYS** · 11-01-09, 05:24 PM

Martingale = death

**chilidog** · 11-01-09, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by whatsgood5

Im not completely familiar with it, but from what Ive read it seems like this

bets $10 on team A
if they lose, bet $25 on team B
if they lose, bet $45 on team C
if they lose, bet $90 on team D

I think he caps it at 6 games, which is why he doesn't have much losses. His system is usually something like take a team on a road trip for all six games and buy X amount of points. A very risky system IMO.

Nah, its a 3 game chase, and you can do a search for 'morrison' and find all of his systems already posted here, and his system does work.

**Masu485** · 11-01-09, 06:30 PM

There is much debate on whether martingale works or not. I hate using John Morrison (but have for a few plays in the past) and his system is alright. It is garbage for WNBA only though. If you are only using him for his plays, he is pretty good, and so far even w/ his money management system, he's up.

BUT

as most 'math' people here would tell you, it will EVENTUALLY fail and you'll lose everything.

my problem with this is that it is absolutely true if you are playing to infinity, but we all have to stop playing at some point, thus maybe one would never reach the point of losing everything.

most 'math' people here utilize a money management strategy which is the OPPOSITE of morrison, meaning a constant % of your present bankroll or Kelly. this ensures that you NEVER go bankrupt, BUT minimizes your winnings if ur hitting a good % and increases the break even pt. ex: if you win 5 games at even odds in a row and then lose 5 games in a row, you are down money. if you lose 5 in a row and then win 5 in a row, you are still down. that's why i dont like that strategy, even if it ensures you never go broke.

morrison's system doesn't guarantee that you won't go broke, but maximizes the profits better, and DECREASES the break even point. morrison only has to win 1/3 games to make money. i dont agree with his money management either though.

**noober** · 11-01-09, 07:19 PM

Masu485, thanks for the information.

**durito** · 11-01-09, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Masu485

most 'math' people here utilize a money management strategy which is the OPPOSITE of morrison, meaning a constant % of your present bankroll or Kelly. this ensures that you NEVER go bankrupt, BUT minimizes your winnings if ur hitting a good % and increases the break even pt. ex: if you win 5 games at even odds in a row and then lose 5 games in a row, you are down money. if you lose 5 in a row and then win 5 in a row, you are still down. that's why i dont like that strategy, even if it ensures you never go broke.

no

Originally posted by Masu485

morrison's system doesn't guarantee that you won't go broke, but maximizes the profits better, and DECREASES the break even point. morrison only has to win 1/3 games to make money. i dont agree with his money management either though.

no

**noober** · 11-01-09, 07:36 PM

Can you explain?

**20Four7** · 11-01-09, 07:47 PM

You can easily go broke using Kelly if you can't quantify your edge. If your edge is 3% and you bet 7% you can easily go broke.

Most of what you said Masu is completely wrong. I don't know where to start to explain your errors so I'l just say durito is right.

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-02-09, 05:30 PM

I love chase systems! guys have to pour money in on the C and D games, and I get a nice price the other direction. Ty chumps