Post-Game Handicapping: How do you determine if your bet was good?

[twincities77]

When winning a bet, it's easy just to chalk it up to "correct" handicapping; in fact very few times have I seen bettors come out and say "yeah I didn't deserve to win that one". When losing, it's seems much easier to find points about the game that cost you the bet, but still preserve your idea that the bet was "correct". These tendencies seem vulnerable to significant biases by the bettor.

So my question, how do you determine after a game if you had a good bet? It seems like this skill would be very important to good handicapping, but I don't do it myself, nor have I seen others talk about doing it. When I do see it, it tends to be fairly limited and subjective.

A bettor who uses pure handicapping should have this a little easier, specifically: Did the game go how you expected it to go, in all the facets you handicapped?

For those that use power ratings, this seems harder, although I suppose you could look at weird anomalies that popped up that you don't include in the power rating used.

[LT Profits]

If you beat the closing number, you made a good bet. If you did not, you made a bad bet. It really is that simple.

Whether you won of lost the particular bet in question is irrelevant.

[twincities77]

If you beat the closing number, you made a good bet. If you did not, you made a bad bet. It really is that simple.

Whether you won of lost the particular bet in question is irrelevant.

Could you please explain a little more? Are you saying that if I like the favorite and get them at -4, then the line moves up to -5, my play automatically has positive value?

To your second point, I recognize the actual result is not key, but the quality of the original bet, I'm asking what folks do to determine that based on the course of the game, regardless of the outcome of the bet. (If they do anything).

[LT Profits]

http://www.sbr.tv/video-1970-Do+you+have+an+edge+at+sports+betting+.html

Start at 5:40 or so.

[twincities77]

Ok, your answer isn't quite what I'm asking, but I'm interested in what he was saying. Is it assuming that when the market closes it most closely approximates 50-50 outcomes?

[Dark Horse]

You determine it by the action points. If you had -4 and your teams wins by 14, you beat the line by 10 pts.
If you keep track of betting systems this way, you will find it very helpful.

[LT Profits]

Ok, your answer isn't quite what I'm asking, but I'm interested in what he was saying. Is it assuming that when the market closes it most closely approximates 50-50 outcomes?

Right, the assumption is that closing lines are the most efficient, which may not be the case with peripheral sports, but is a good assumption for the major ones.

[LT Profits]

You determine it by the action points. If you had -4 and your teams wins by 14, you beat the line by 10 pts.
If you keep track of betting systems this way, you will find it very helpful.

Interesting.

But I'd like to see an added filter for games where the line at the time the bet was placed beat the closing line and those that did not. If there is not much variance between the two groups, you have a kick-ass system. If the plays that beat the closing lines did better, then you have an added filter that can make your original system stronger.

[twincities77]

Right, the assumption is that closing lines are the most efficient, which may not be the case with peripheral sports, but is a good assumption for the major ones.

Thank you for the responses.

Edit: And please keep them coming if you have alternative ways to evaluate bets or more to add regarding the current suggestions. I'm very interested in this topic.

[20Four7]

This is easy.

Did your bet win ---- it was good
did you bet lose but had reasons --- it was good
did your bet lose and you feel like crap ---- it wasn't good

[losturmarbles]

You determine it by the action points. If you had -4 and your teams wins by 14, you beat the line by 10 pts.
If you keep track of betting systems this way, you will find it very helpful.

if you do that you should weigh the points based on the closing total.

[marcoforte]

A thought provoking question. Likewise the answer by Dark Horse.

[PAPSMEAR]

If you can afford to eat after a bet it is a good bet

[twincities77]

Right, the assumption is that closing lines are the most efficient, which may not be the case with peripheral sports, but is a good assumption for the major ones.

What is your sense in college football regarding whether it's major vs. peripheral? Big conference vs. small conference? Nationally televised vs. not?

[floridagolfer]

You determine it by the action points. If you had -4 and your teams wins by 14, you beat the line by 10 pts.
If you keep track of betting systems this way, you will find it very helpful.

Say what? It is inconsequential whether you win your wager by 1 point or 101 points. We're not any smarter when we go 5-1 as opposed to 2-4. There are countless variables that contribute to the final outcome of games and some of them cannot be handicapped.

[Wrecktangle]

Did the line move in the direction of your selection by close.

If you are doing this consistently, you are beating the market and will win in the long run.

...if the market jumps in your direction after you post your bet, then the market is following you...DrBob has this problem.

[wal66]

Twins, i don't have nearly the experience doing this seriously as probably most of the guys on this forum and almost assuredly the guys in the think tank but I do think there are things to look at. Yes beating the closing line is ultimately a final result that determines the winning or losing of the bet but you had to do something before the game to make the play. What went into choosing Florida -12 instead of Vanderbilt +12? You handicapped the game and you were confident but you ultimately lost the game because Florida won by 7. What went wrong up front? Florida had 4 turnovers fr loss in the game that lead to 13 points for Vanderbilt. In your initial handicapping you overlooked the turnover margin between the teams where Florida was -12 in the ratio. Had you caught this before the game it might have swayed your chose.

I'm simplifying this I know but I think you understand my point. You do your work on the front side of the game so if you are only trying to refine and become the best you can be it only makes sense to work the back side of the game as well. If you win know why you won don't just accept it. If you lose try and find if it was something you missed or just fate. We can do nothing about fate but we can learn from our misstakes.

This is just my opinion on the matter and I am in noway saying I am an authority on the subject. If you want to be the best you have to work harder, be better and develope your skills.

[IrishTim]

Think that's pretty sound advice wal. Good post.

[rk9]

I agree with the closing line that LT said and the by how much you win. if you have a strong play and the team covers by a lot you had a good read on the game. The only thing i would add is to take into account bad beats such as irregular scoring either for or against you (ie. ridiculous backdoor covers like the FIU-Troy game). These may not have been bad bets but you lost.

[bookie]

Guys who come at this from analogies to financial markets will emphasize line movement as the right metric for a value bet. People, like Dark Horse, who do some handicapping are going to favor average against the spread margin (aka actions points) as a measure of their handicapping insight. Which only makes sense. Betting and handicapping are different activities that need different yardsticks.

[Carson05]

good thread

[floridagolfer]

We've all had the "right" team and lost the bet. We've all had the "wrong" team and won the bet. Stuff happens for reasons beyond anyone's rhyme or reasoning and sometimes this determines which side of the ledger we fall. Perhaps it doesn't occur on a regular basis, but it does happen.

[twincities77]

Twins, i don't have nearly the experience doing this seriously as probably most of the guys on this forum and almost assuredly the guys in the think tank but I do think there are things to look at. Yes beating the closing line is ultimately a final result that determines the winning or losing of the bet but you had to do something before the game to make the play. What went into choosing Florida -12 instead of Vanderbilt +12? You handicapped the game and you were confident but you ultimately lost the game because Florida won by 7. What went wrong up front? Florida had 4 turnovers fr loss in the game that lead to 13 points for Vanderbilt. In your initial handicapping you overlooked the turnover margin between the teams where Florida was -12 in the ratio. Had you caught this before the game it might have swayed your chose.

I'm simplifying this I know but I think you understand my point. You do your work on the front side of the game so if you are only trying to refine and become the best you can be it only makes sense to work the back side of the game as well. If you win know why you won don't just accept it. If you lose try and find if it was something you missed or just fate. We can do nothing about fate but we can learn from our misstakes.

This is just my opinion on the matter and I am in noway saying I am an authority on the subject. If you want to be the best you have to work harder, be better and develope your skills.

This is the kind of thing I was thinking of initially. Beating the market is great and it seems that it is one valuable tool to evaluate a bet, but it seems like there should be other indicators actually within the game like this. For example, if you expect one team to run for 250 yards, and they run for 40, then there likely was some flaw in the capping that I wouldn't just chalk up to random fluctuation around an efficient market expectation.

[twincities77]

We've all had the "right" team and lost the bet. We've all had the "wrong" team and won the bet. Stuff happens for reasons beyond anyone's rhyme or reasoning and sometimes this determines which side of the ledger we fall. Perhaps it doesn't occur on a regular basis, but it does happen.

I recognize there is random variance, however that doesn't mean there isn't also systematic things going on that may deserve some attention (and may get ignored due to biases I mentioned in the original post).

[20Four7]

This is the kind of thing I was thinking of initially. Beating the market is great and it seems that it is one valuable tool to evaluate a bet, but it seems like there should be other indicators actually within the game like this. For example, if you expect one team to run for 250 yards, and they run for 40, then there likely was some flaw in the capping that I wouldn't just chalk up to random fluctuation around an efficient market expectation.

A lot of random fluctuation can happen throughout a game. The quarterback could go down, Running back get hurt and not play. A guy you expect to carry 20 times for 100 yards goes down on his first carry and the team nets 40 yards isn't a flaw in the capping, it's random fluctuations around him getting hurt. There are lots of different ways to look at things. For me all I really care about is return..... I am making good bets if I'm getting a good return on my investment.

[twincities77]

A lot of random fluctuation can happen throughout a game. The quarterback could go down, Running back get hurt and not play. A guy you expect to carry 20 times for 100 yards goes down on his first carry and the team nets 40 yards isn't a flaw in the capping, it's random fluctuations around him getting hurt. There are lots of different ways to look at things. For me all I really care about is return..... I am making good bets if I'm getting a good return on my investment.

I'm not talking injuries necessarily, I'm talking more about in-game expectations that don't come to fruition (or maybe way better than predicted, whatever).

[iLogan]

Good thread, thanks for sharing this info guys

[Arilou]

In the terms under which the question was asked (as opposed to asking whether you got a good number vs. market) my answer would be: re-cap the game now, if you were to go back and restart it. What line would get posted for a rematch under the same conditions?

Be very careful using point differentials as a metric because it is flawed, especially in football (e.g. +2.5 vs. -2.5).

[shantystar]

If you beat the closing number, you made a good bet. If you did not, you made a bad bet. It really is that simple.

Whether you won of lost the particular bet in question is irrelevant.

right say!

[twincities77]

In the terms under which the question was asked (as opposed to asking whether you got a good number vs. market) my answer would be: re-cap the game now, if you were to go back and restart it. What line would get posted for a rematch under the same conditions?

Be very careful using point differentials as a metric because it is flawed, especially in football (e.g. +2.5 vs. -2.5).

Could you describe in more detail how you would do this? I'm interested, but it's hard for me to see exactly how one would go about this?

[skrtelfan]

If you beat the closing number, you made a good bet. If you did not, you made a bad bet. It really is that simple.

I prefer looking at the apex of the market as opposed to the strict closing number. If you have all week to bet an NFL team +6 but take +5.5 an hour before kickoff and it closes +5, you didn't necessarily make a good bet unless the +5.5 included information you didn't have previously. Likewise, if it opens +4.5 and you take +6 an hour before kickoff and it closes +6.5, you didn't necessarily make a bad bet. It can be tough to time the market close to gametime since the line can be gradually going up, and then all of the good numbers get knocked out on a steam play. If I see a number I consider +EV an hour before start time I'll often take that rather than wait because I've been burned by the buyback too many times.

[TPowell]

I write down AT LEAST 3 assumptions (Team A will outrush Team B, Team A will outrebound Team B, etc) and go by that.

[Dunder]

If you beat the closing number, you made a good bet. If you did not, you made a bad bet. It really is that simple.

Whether you won of lost the particular bet in question is irrelevant.

This is based on the principle that the market is always right. In sports, as in other fields, this argument is highly dependent on liquidity/volume/action. For mainstream markets, it´s great advice, for niche markets, however it doesn´t ring true.

[Karayilan9]

Alot of people think they know a sport but are really just a fan and don't understand the comlexities of the game.

It happens alot in soccer, a good striker is injured or a high profile player is suspended and people think the team will loose but when the key holding defensive midfielder is out they will ignore it and think that's its nothing major then be puzzled about how the team played so bad and lost so easily and come out with some crazy excuse.

Good cappers are like high paid consultants, their advice is of high value because they are experts in their field, know what to look for, can see weaknesses, strengths, opportunities and threats and pin-point what to look out for.

Analyse wins like losses, after each game write a game summary and highlight the areas you are predicting well and the areas you missed. The best place to do this is in smaller soccer leagues that don't get the media frenzy, it can give a big edge.

[statnerds]

I can only speak to the NFL on this one, where beating the closing number is as easy betting favorites on Monday for the following Sunday and holding off on those dogs until 12:59 p.m. EST on Sunday afternoon. if anyone doubts the assumption that the public is normally going to back the fav/over, log % and LM for every game this season, or read any recap of the weekend Vegas had throughout the football season.

as for CLV (closing line value), agree that if you are beating the closing number the majority of the time, you are doing something right. if you are capping your own games, you would want to chart the CLV on your wins and losses. are the nubmers similiar?

as for knowing you had the right team, again, i can only speak of the NFL. here is a free tidbit from my growing database. Since 2006, the NFL team that wins ITS (In The Stats) wins SU 70% of the time and wins ATS 64%.

quick example of right team from last week might then be the Pittsburgh Steelers who outgained KC 505-285 or some ridiculous number and lost outright. right team/wrong result.

just part of the reason i will be backing SD this week as long as i can get 13.5 or less. you can't fix the 32nd ranked D from '08 by signing an unproven, over-rated $14 million/yr QB.

finally, i would remiss if i did not add that being on the wrong side of CLV doesn't necessarily mean you capped something wrong. it might mean you were wise enough to take all the info, digest it and pick up on that one thing that everyone missed. for instance, take a look at the Pats and Saints rushing totals from last week and tell me if you like Ov or Un on MNF. everyone will focus on the points the teams are scoring and the phenoms at QB. but neither team wants the other's O on the field.

GL