How often do teams lose by less than an FG in NFL?
Might be a remedial question, but did some googling and can't find an answer short of doing the work myself...so if anyone has this info, it'd be appreciated!
Thanks!
IrishTim
SBR Wise Guy
07-23-09
983
#2
Good question, I'm sure justin has the data for the last 20 years. I see where you're coming from on this question. It's hard for me to take a team +3 if I don't think they're going to win. And if I think they're going to win, why don't I just take ML? What I've been doing lately is putting 1 unit on the spread and .5 units on the ML on these small dogs. Worked thus far but obviously a small sample size.
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TheSkeptic
SBR High Roller
09-28-09
176
#3
yeah, for instance I took Miami tonight at +145 instead of +3 (-110). There's obviously a certain % that +3 will push, but I'd like to know the % it would win yet the team loses SU.
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IrishTim
SBR Wise Guy
07-23-09
983
#4
These are the push probabilities from Ganchrow's distribution using the half point calculator:
3: 9.38%
7: 5.16%
10: 4.80%
14: 4.50%
But I'd still be interested to know how many 1-2 point games there are, and even what % of those games have spreads of 3 or less.
ML at +145 is much better than the +3 at -110.
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Peep
SBR MVP
06-23-08
2295
#5
How often do teams lose by less than an FG in NFL?
I think I can answer that.
1) Out of 5704 games in the database, set up by home team
2) Home team won by one 126 times, lost by one 111 times.
3) Home team won by two 110 times, lost by two 100 times.
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IrishTim
SBR Wise Guy
07-23-09
983
#6
Thanks for the info peep. The database contains the numbers for around the last 20 seasons or so, correct? Converting to percents for myself:
Home team wins by 1: 2.21%
Home team loses by 1: 1.95%
Home team wins by 2: 1.92%
Home team loses by 2: 1.76%
Total percent of games decided by less than a FG is approximately 8% which is more than I would have guessed. Is there any chance for have the spreads for these games? I'm curious what percent were 3 or less. Also interesting to note that the home team does appear to have a small advantage in games decided by 1-2 points.
Anyway, nice win with Miami ML, Skeptic. Enjoy the extra 45%.
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TheSkeptic
SBR High Roller
09-28-09
176
#7
^ Thanks!
Its always nice to win...45% extra even better! Wish I'd have got off the under though...knew that was a trap.
As for the info, I really appreciate it Peep. I guess I would ask how many times a dog lost by 1 or 2 points, vs. a home team...that might be a more accurate question, but the 8% figure is something to work with.
If my math is correct then, a 3 point dog at -110 would be better off betting the money line if the money line is >117?
if x=the break even ML -100 = what you lose when you bet ML and team loses by less than 3 +100 = what you would have won when a team lost by less than 3 yet covered
92%=the amount of time a team wins by more than an FG
8% =the amount of time a team wins by less than an FG
Then:
.92x - .08*100 = +100
x=+117
Is my math correct? Are my assumptions correct?
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Lucas
SBR MVP
12-20-05
1062
#8
Originally posted by IrishTim
Thanks for the info peep. The database contains the numbers for around the last 20 seasons or so, correct? Converting to percents for myself:
Home team wins by 1: 2.21%
Home team loses by 1: 1.95%
Home team wins by 2: 1.92%
Home team loses by 2: 1.76%
Total percent of games decided by less than a FG is approximately 8% which is more than I would have guessed. Is there any chance for have the Spreads for these games? I'm curious what percent were 3 or less. Also interesting to note that the home team does appear to have a small advantage in games decided by 1-2 points.
Anyway, nice win with Miami ML, Skeptic. Enjoy the extra 45%.
i am not sure, but maybe the concern should be for cases where team wins by 1 or 2 WHILE THEY ARE +3 dogs or so
also concern should be style of coaching about 2pt conversions and maybe also hard defense for safeties
last note... you are missing ties
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TheSkeptic
SBR High Roller
09-28-09
176
#9
True! Good points...guess I was looking for a "back of an envelope" rule of thumb but I'll crunch some numbers a little more. I just want to make sure I'm not leaving money on the table. It just seems anecdotally to me that when you have a small dog (+2.5 or less) that they either win outright or don't cover 90% of the time, which would point to playing the ML vs. the spread.
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IrishTim
SBR Wise Guy
07-23-09
983
#10
Originally posted by Lucas
i am not sure, but maybe the concern should be for cases where team wins by 1 or 2 WHILE THEY ARE +3 dogs or so
also concern should be style of coaching about 2pt conversions and maybe also hard defense for safeties
last note... you are missing ties
Didn't think about ties but if you see in my post above, I did ask about 1-2 point games when the spread was 3 or less. The databases justin and peep and other pros have go back to before I was born, so I tend to trust their info more than my minimal experience.
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Peep
SBR MVP
06-23-08
2295
#11
Yeah, I think my db goes back to 1984.
The biggest "fly in the ointment" is of course the two point conversion. Once that was allowed, more two's started appearing.
Sadly, not too many magic box solutions out there. The linesmen are pretty good at their job, they have to be, or the books would be out of business.