Buying off the 7 in NCAA

[Gemoka]

What would it cost to take it down to -6 if they were -110 -7?
and is the 7 less important in NCAA than the NFL?
Reason I ask is Troy were -6 -110 with 1 book last night

[20Four7]

If you can get a -6 at one book why buy off the 7...... The books will charge you more to buy off the 7.

[iwutitan]

Is there anyone here against buying points?

[rm18]

7 is more important in NCAA than NFL almost equal to 3. books that give you the buy for 10 cents buy it every time

[Dark Horse]

Use this. http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx
Not all books charge 10 cts per half point. I've seen 15 cts.

[20Four7]

Running through the 1/2 point calculator it is just as I thought. The 7 and buying off it is more valuable in NFL than NCAA. I would have expected this just because until you hit the bowl games there is a lot of mismatches that 7 shouldn't even enter the picture.

[LT Profits]

7 is more important in NCAA than NFL almost equal to 3. books that give you the buy for 10 cents buy it every time

Not true unless the NCAA game total is in the low 40s or less. Generally speaking, 7 and 3 are more key in NFL (especially 3) than CFB. Justin7 says that even the 10 in NFL is worth buying through at 10 cents per half, but as much respect as I have for Justin, I am not totally convinced if that.

[RickySteve]

From an EV perspective, buying on/off 10 in NFL is at worst a tiny mistake. From an EG perspective, it's the correct play.

[bigsassyster]

It use to be worth it to buy off/on 3 and 7. But the books charge so much for those numbers, that making that move has lost a lot of value. I usually just wait for the books to get shuffled around until I get a good line.

[LT Profits]

From an EV perspective, buying on/off 10 in NFL is at worst a tiny mistake. From an EG perspective, it's the correct play.

Fair enough, but would you buy through at -130? Justin does it without a thought, me.....eh

[Peeig]

Line shopping FTW!

[IrishTim]

Fair enough, but would you buy through at -130? Justin does it without a thought, me.....eh

I always figured Justin would be vehemently opposed to buying points (with some sound mathematical reason) which is why I was shocked to see him suggest buying through the ten on that video with San Fran last week. I would love to see the math behind this. I would never question Justin but I find it difficult to believe that buying through the ten at -130 is the right move.

[rm18]

14 is actually the 2nd most key number in the NFL, though not nearly as many games around there

[LT Profits]

14 is actually the 2nd most key number in the NFL, though not nearly as many games around there

14 is fourth based on Ganchrow's distribution.

3: 9.38%
7: 5.16%
10: 4.80%
14: 4.50%

[IrishTim]

I would've have thought 4 would be a more common number than 10 or 14. Without looking at numbers, I always feel like there are a lot of 21-17, 17-13 type games but evidently not.

One thing I still don't understand is how it's a good idea to buy half points for 10 cents at any of these numbers based on the distribution above.

[LT Profits]

I would've have thought 4 would be a more common number than 10 or 14. Without looking at numbers, I always feel like there are a lot of 21-17, 17-13 type games but evidently not.

One thing I still don't understand is how it's a good idea to buy half points for 10 cents at any of these numbers based on the distribution above.

The percentages listed are the PUSH probabilities of games with lines within two points of each number, NOT the percentage of all games that had each exact winning margin. This method is the basis of the half-point calculator.

FYI, after 14, the next two numbers are 6 (3.38%) and then 4 (3.28%).

[skrtelfan]

Buying through the 10 (i.e. from 9.5 -110 to 10.5 -130) is a stronger play than just buying 9.5 -110 to 10 -120, because the second 10 cents cost less percentage wise.