Exiting bad bets/trading out

**semibluff** · 01-15-23, 12:35 AM

I think you're asking the wrong question or thinking about it in the wrong way. +ev decisions are what you should be focusing on. Previous decisions shouldn't come into it. I'm not a fan of hedging out with a -ev decision just to show a profit and i'm all in favour of taking value on the other side if the market has moved but hasn't fully corrected itself. In this case if there's value on the favourite @ -6½ then bet it. If there isn't then don't. A previous bet on the dog @ +4½ shouldn't come into it.

To answer your question I have bet the other side and guaranteed a loss. It was when I was a lot younger and I was grinding for an income. These days i'm strictly small-time recreational and air betting. Guaranteeing a losing position is a hard lesson for many to learn. Take what wisdom you can from these words - money has no emotions, no morals, and no memory.

**Optional** · 01-15-23, 02:38 AM

If I knew why the line changed and think the move is valid I might wear a 12% loss and be happy. But what Semibluff said makes sense to me too.

**Spankyf** · 01-15-23, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by semibluff

I think you're asking the wrong question or thinking about it in the wrong way. +ev decisions are what you should be focusing on. Previous decisions shouldn't come into it. I'm not a fan of hedging out with a -ev decision just to show a profit and i'm all in favour of taking value on the other side if the market has moved but hasn't fully corrected itself. In this case if there's value on the favourite @ -6½ then bet it. If there isn't then don't. A previous bet on the dog @ +4½ shouldn't come into it.

I take your point about throwing good money after bad. The root of this is i'm probably too conservative in my own betting. Tendency to focus more on yield than volume.

To make a more aggressive move and double down on the side that now shows value is something I haven't been considering. I appreciate that angle. Thinking more like a poker player there.

**Waterstpub87** · 01-15-23, 11:33 AM

Bad idea.

To win at gambling, commit money with positive yield. Sometimes you're wrong, but it averages out.

Betting money at a hedge, is not positive yield.

Unless you like the other side now, don't bet it.

NBA can be funny with stuff like that, you can't do much about late injuries or scratches. It evens out in the end though.

A more complete answer:

4.5 to 6.5 should you hedge:

Using this half point calculator https://www.sportsbookreview.com/bet...nt-calculator/
(Numbers are slightly stale, but for the purpose of this example just assume they are correct)

Push on 5: 4.37%

Push on 6: 4.16

Betting 55 to win 50

We lose both on 8.53%

Otherwise, we lose 5 on other side

8.53% * 110 = -9.383

91.47% * 5 = -4.5735

Expected loss = 13.9565

Compare that to our original position

With Vig, 6.5 is 130/-158.5 if we were to buy it from 4.5

converting, we get ~-144 vig free, roughly 59%

so we figure out the odds as .41 * (1/1.1) - .59 = -21.727% hold * $55

With an expected loss of 11.94$

So maintaining your initial position leads to an expected loss of 11.94. Hedging leads to an expected loss of 13.9565, almost 17% worse.

Its almost never in your interest to hedge, especially if things move against you. The only time it is good to hedge if the new bet is a higher expected value. Which is like probably like 1 a year, its not worth thinking of normally.

**turbobets** · 01-15-23, 01:20 PM

Don't bet the other side unless there is an edge. You're giving away the juice every time if you do. If you let it play out you will only pay the juice roughly half of the time.

**semibluff** · 01-15-23, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Spankyf

I take your point about throwing good money after bad. The root of this is i'm probably too conservative in my own betting. Tendency to focus more on yield than volume.

To make a more aggressive move and double down on the side that now shows value is something I haven't been considering. I appreciate that angle. Thinking more like a poker player there.

I wasn't suggesting you make a bet on either side of the new line. What i'm saying is to evaluate the new line. You need to know how big the line change is and what circumstances have changed. In the NFL the difference between 8 and 9½ is tiny but the difference between 2½ and 4 is huge. If the change is small i'd leave the event alone, or maybe make a tiny bet in line with 'fractional' Kelly principles. If there's a significant change, (starting QB out, change in location or weather, etc), then effectively it's a new event so evaluate what the odds should be. If the odds are a little off from your evaluation then take advantage, regardless of your pre-change position. Hedging out or doubling down on a small line change is normally a -ve.

I don't follow basketball so I don't know how big the change is. On a 210 point game a 2 point difference wouldn't immediately strike me as a big change.

Nothing wrong with focusing on yield.

**Spankyf** · 01-15-23, 03:24 PM

semibluff, yes I got you. Didn't word it right but bet a new bet if a new situation arises. Don't double down by default.

Fantastic stuff Waters, I will digest that

Edit: I can't transfer points? Otherwise i'd be dishing them out. Have to get onto the mods about that. Is there a subforum for mod help? Because I also want to change my handle

**Waterstpub87** · 01-15-23, 08:06 PM

You can't really be afraid or you'll never get anywhere. I occasionally make a bad bet, but i try not to sweat it. If you bet reasonable amounts, you can weather a few bad bets and not worry. I bet 1% flat, it allows me to not really worry about it, as long as I know that long term, I win.

If your that worried about 1 bet being bad, try betting less on each game. Even if I have bad day/week/month, I know I'm still in the game without going in my pocket. It allows you not to worry about individual bets and just focus on getting better

**smoke a bowl** · 01-15-23, 08:44 PM

Long story short is once you have made a bet it is made. The only thing that should be considered when making a bet on the other side or any bet for that matter is whether or not the bet being made is independently +ev. Nothign else should matter.

**Optional** · 01-15-23, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by Spankyf

semibluff, yes I got you. Didn't word it right but bet a new bet if a new situation arises. Don't double down by default.

Fantastic stuff Waters, I will digest that

Edit: I can't transfer points? Otherwise i'd be dishing them out. Have to get onto the mods about that. Is there a subforum for mod help? Because I also want to change my handle

No-pro members can only transfer 2 points per 24 hours.

Upgrade to Pro for 1500 points at the moment. Good deal https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sbr-pro/

Email forum@sportsbookreview.com to get name changed. Not sure if allowed or not.

**TommieGunshot** · 01-16-23, 04:36 PM

If it never happens, where I want to get off a bet and am willing to just pay the vig, I am losing profit because I am being too conservative. If it happens too frequently, then I am making too many bad bets and losing profit.

**Spankyf** · 01-18-23, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by Optional

No-pro members can only transfer 2 points per 24 hours.

Upgrade to Pro for 1500 points at the moment. Good deal https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sbr-pro/

Email forum@sportsbookreview.com to get name changed. Not sure if allowed or not.

Many thanks and to all for the input