I have 3 questions about line movement.
First question..in baseball, is most of the ML movement related to the release of the rosters? Or is it simply that the books release sometimes a wildly incorrect line? Because daily many games move A LOT.
2nd question, why do people arb out of a good line position? When you do this, you are simply taking the market shaped line. It guarantees profit today but in the long run I would think this would definitely lower your profit because you are combining a +EV bet (the original bet when you beat the line movement) with usually a -EV bet that the market has corrected and vig is there too. Why not just keep the +EV bet? This seems like the same concept as trying to middle your original position in a football game at halftime (with a bet on the 2nd half) when you are winning your original bet handily. The middle bet at half should be looked at for what it is, a completely seperate bet and should be judged on its own, not for how much of a "middle" it gives you between it (halftime line) and game line you are already winning. Unless the halftime bet is +EV I was told it should be avoided. Which makes perfect sense.
Yet people arb out of good line bets (both bets made pre game in baseball) and it is considered a good move. Why? What is the difference between this and the football game scenario I gave above. Shouldn't the second bet be judged for its EV alone?
I was told by a smart guy here that beating the closing line by a few cents will make you a long term winner by itself. Which brings me to my 3rd question......
At what point in each of the major 3 sports is beating the closing line a long term profitable venture? At what point with beating the closing line in each of the big 3 sports are you going to be able to simply bet that line with no capping and win long term?
First question..in baseball, is most of the ML movement related to the release of the rosters? Or is it simply that the books release sometimes a wildly incorrect line? Because daily many games move A LOT.
2nd question, why do people arb out of a good line position? When you do this, you are simply taking the market shaped line. It guarantees profit today but in the long run I would think this would definitely lower your profit because you are combining a +EV bet (the original bet when you beat the line movement) with usually a -EV bet that the market has corrected and vig is there too. Why not just keep the +EV bet? This seems like the same concept as trying to middle your original position in a football game at halftime (with a bet on the 2nd half) when you are winning your original bet handily. The middle bet at half should be looked at for what it is, a completely seperate bet and should be judged on its own, not for how much of a "middle" it gives you between it (halftime line) and game line you are already winning. Unless the halftime bet is +EV I was told it should be avoided. Which makes perfect sense.
Yet people arb out of good line bets (both bets made pre game in baseball) and it is considered a good move. Why? What is the difference between this and the football game scenario I gave above. Shouldn't the second bet be judged for its EV alone?
I was told by a smart guy here that beating the closing line by a few cents will make you a long term winner by itself. Which brings me to my 3rd question......
At what point in each of the major 3 sports is beating the closing line a long term profitable venture? At what point with beating the closing line in each of the big 3 sports are you going to be able to simply bet that line with no capping and win long term?