Questions about line movement

[WileOut]

I have 3 questions about line movement.

First question..in baseball, is most of the ML movement related to the release of the rosters? Or is it simply that the books release sometimes a wildly incorrect line? Because daily many games move A LOT.

2nd question, why do people arb out of a good line position? When you do this, you are simply taking the market shaped line. It guarantees profit today but in the long run I would think this would definitely lower your profit because you are combining a +EV bet (the original bet when you beat the line movement) with usually a -EV bet that the market has corrected and vig is there too. Why not just keep the +EV bet? This seems like the same concept as trying to middle your original position in a football game at halftime (with a bet on the 2nd half) when you are winning your original bet handily. The middle bet at half should be looked at for what it is, a completely seperate bet and should be judged on its own, not for how much of a "middle" it gives you between it (halftime line) and game line you are already winning. Unless the halftime bet is +EV I was told it should be avoided. Which makes perfect sense.

Yet people arb out of good line bets (both bets made pre game in baseball) and it is considered a good move. Why? What is the difference between this and the football game scenario I gave above. Shouldn't the second bet be judged for its EV alone?

I was told by a smart guy here that beating the closing line by a few cents will make you a long term winner by itself. Which brings me to my 3rd question......

At what point in each of the major 3 sports is beating the closing line a long term profitable venture? At what point with beating the closing line in each of the big 3 sports are you going to be able to simply bet that line with no capping and win long term?

[u21c3f6]

Here is my answer to question 2. For me, it has to do with the allocation of bankroll. Let's say that I have a 2% edge, and based on my bankroll I make a $100 wager. My expectation is a profit of $2. However, if I know that I am going to arb/hedge, I can now allocate a much larger % of my bankroll. I may now be able to allocate $500 to this wager and even if the second wager is -EV and cuts my edge in half to 1%, my expectation on this arb/hedge wager is now $5 instead of $2.

Joe.

[the shadow]

Question 1 a line that moves 15-20 cents is worth about the same as an nba game moving 1 pt.
the lines look like they are moving a lot but in reality, they are moving same as the NBA.

Question 2 Never arb... Take the money and run!.(99.9 % situations)

Question 3 you can't beat the closing line with out handicapping, create your own line and bet the games that are most off with the opeing lines. However... If you have a 2-5 % advantage over the house, you may still lose in short term dues to the law of probability.

[WileOut]

Yes shadow, lol that is a good point, I don't know what my thinking was with question 3. Yes you have to cap to beat the closing line.

My question was meant to be this.....how much do you need to beat the no vig pinny closing line by to really make good money?

[TomG]

My question was meant to be this.....how much do you need to beat the no vig pinny closing line by to really make good money?

It depends on the efficiency of the particular market at Pinny. Blue circled games with high limits and low juice are more efficient so beating Pinny's no-vig is likely to be +EV. Other markets such as Japan J2 Soccer League are not efficient at all and should not be used as an indicator of a game's true line.

[LT Profits]

Back to #2 for a second, I'd never arb if I get a great number on a play I handicapped.

The one twist I have had success with is the Morrison craze, where I bet his B and C bets ASAP. knowing that I will scalp later on. I have no problem arbing those because they are generally not +EV long term anyway. Only once has a Morrison play coincided with a play I actually liked, so I did not arb that one as I felt he pulled a +EV out of his ass.

[WileOut]

TomG, I'm talking about the big 3 american sports. MLB, college and pro football, and college and pro basketball. I played soccer but I don't know anything about any soccer team out there.

LT yes this morrison craze is something else. Its unreal what can move markets sometimes.

[the shadow]

The only morrison worth a shit is named jim not john

[Pokerjoe]

The Shadow makes a good point about MLB lines not actually moving as much as you might think.

As to why they move, there is no one answer. Lineup changes, injuries, weather might be grouped as game-specific reasons; "wrong line" might be a reason also, meaning, separate from the game-specific reasons, more of a generically wrongly rated team; and then, the third reason for line changes: public money. The thing is, public money (whether people following a hot capper, or just generally supporting a popular team), is what you might call a false line move, and thus is fadeable.

Figuring out the reasons behind a line move is a skill. Personally, I have this rule of thumb: the less able I am to identify a line move's source, the more respect I give it.

[Pokerjoe]

Here is my answer to question 2. For me, it has to do with the allocation of bankroll. Let's say that I have a 2% edge, and based on my bankroll I make a $100 wager. My expectation is a profit of $2. However, if I know that I am going to arb/hedge, I can now allocate a much larger % of my bankroll. I may now be able to allocate $500 to this wager and even if the second wager is -EV and cuts my edge in half to 1%, my expectation on this arb/hedge wager is now $5 instead of $2.

Joe.

I like this. But I'd add this caveat, and it's the reason I don't often do it myself: arbing out eats up a lot of BR. Because I often make 100 bets on a college basketball Saturday, for example, and in so doing max out a lot of accounts, I can't arb out line move advantages.

[LT Profits]

Back to #2 for a second, I'd never arb if I get a great number on a play I handicapped.

The one twist I have had success with is the Morrison craze, where I bet his B and C bets ASAP. knowing that I will scalp later on. I have no problem arbing those because they are generally not +EV long term anyway. Only once has a Morrison play coincided with a play I actually liked, so I did not arb that one as I felt he pulled a +EV out of his ass.

Right on cue!

I jumped on the White Sox -125 shortly after 11 ET last night. It is now 5:50 AM, and Twins +145 is available at BetJamaica. I am not going to scalp yet (especially since BJ has $300 limits until around 9:15), but you get the idea. I would not be surprised if I get a 30-cent scalp here.

Thank you John Morrison. you DO serve a purpose.

[FreeFall]

I thought JM "ended" his year at September? Has he changed his mind now?

[WileOut]

Took advantage of that too LT, thanks.

[LT Profits]

I thought JM "ended" his year at September? Has he changed his mind now?

I think he does, This was actually an August chase since it started Monday.

[genuine1483]

[samhupman]

good point