Buddy hits 4 $100 parlay last nite

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  • Sports Doc
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-02-20
    • 190

    #1
    Buddy hits 4 $100 parlay last nite
    4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000


    He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


    He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

    I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

    Whats your opinion guys ???
  • Waterstpub87
    SBR MVP
    • 09-09-09
    • 4102

    #2
    Its not really an opinion thing. 99+% of the time, its a terrible bet. A 4 teamer worse than a 3 teamer.
    Comment
    • Choi The Gamer
      SBR Hustler
      • 10-04-20
      • 75

      #3
      Originally posted by Sports Doc
      4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000


      He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


      He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

      I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

      Whats your opinion guys ???
      My opinion is that he should take the money and run!
      Comment
      • hehfest
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-28-08
        • 7934

        #4
        He should let it all ride on another 4 team parlay and then he will have 10k instead of 1k.
        Comment
        • Sports Doc
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-02-20
          • 190

          #5
          Originally posted by Waterstpub87
          Its not really an opinion thing. 99+% of the time, its a terrible bet. A 4 teamer worse than a 3 teamer.
          he also argued the yanks were -150 & he got them even$ in parlay ?
          Comment
          • brodie
            SBR MVP
            • 11-25-13
            • 2212

            #6
            Originally posted by hehfest
            He should let it all ride on another 4 team parlay and then he will have 10k instead of 1k.
            repeat a few times over and he's rich. that's how bill gates got his fortune
            Comment
            • Sports Doc
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-02-20
              • 190

              #7
              bill Gates was Killed in India for givin posionus vaccine to kids there They hung him & his tranny wife!!

              They were replace w clones by Cabal known as Illuminatti lol

              see conspiracydailyupdate.com
              Last edited by Sports Doc; 10-07-20, 04:09 AM.
              Comment
              • KVB
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 05-29-14
                • 74817

                #8
                Seriously, the mods are really sleeping at SBR right now.

                Letting posters run amok, even in the Think Tank.

                Comment
                • CamNewtonOutfit
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 09-26-16
                  • 525

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Sports Doc
                  4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000

                  He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


                  He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

                  I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

                  Whats your opinion guys ???
                  I won an 11 teamer last week but im doing stat arb so entered a lot of different types of bets all at once
                  Comment
                  • Kindred
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-09-08
                    • 2901

                    #10
                    Parlays have lower house edge than straight wagers, the variance may be hard on some but they certainly aren't sucker bets
                    Comment
                    • mtofell
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-21-13
                      • 744

                      #11
                      My nephew won an 8-team $40 last month in Vegas..... $6600! Literally, the second sports bet of his life. It all came down to NFL Bills +2.5 @ Cards and "the catch". Had Cards kicked the extra point he would have lost. Final was 22-20.
                      Comment
                      • StackinGreen
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-09-10
                        • 12140

                        #12
                        Originally posted by mtofell
                        My nephew won an 8-team $40 last month in Vegas..... $6600! Literally, the second sports bet of his life. It all came down to NFL Bills +2.5 @ Cards and "the catch". Had Cards kicked the extra point he would have lost. Final was 22-20.
                        went from possibly worst beat ever to best result in his life
                        Comment
                        • Gaze73
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-27-14
                          • 3291

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Kindred
                          Parlays have lower house edge than straight wagers, the variance may be hard on some but they certainly aren't sucker bets
                          You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.
                          Comment
                          • StackinGreen
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-09-10
                            • 12140

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Gaze73
                            You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.


                            He does point out that you could theoretically increase edge, but when you see the type of players who constantly attack these wagers and how many games they play, you quickly see they have little knowledge and are going for lotto scenarios.
                            Comment
                            • mtofell
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 09-21-13
                              • 744

                              #15
                              Originally posted by StackinGreen
                              went from possibly worst beat ever to best result in his life
                              Oh yeah... he was losing his mind! Here's the whole story if anyone is interested:

                              Comment
                              • Itsamazing777
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-14-12
                                • 12602

                                #16
                                Won a few bailout 4 teamers for 500 risked.
                                Comment
                                • HedgeHog
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-11-07
                                  • 10128

                                  #17
                                  Ok, your friend hit some 4 team teasers. If I win the lottery should I also post that in the Think Tank (especially if it was a quick pick). Thread should be moved to Players Talk.
                                  Comment
                                  • Bsims
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-03-09
                                    • 827

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Gaze73
                                    You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.
                                    Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 singlegames.
                                    Comment
                                    • StackinGreen
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 10-09-10
                                      • 12140

                                      #19
                                      Sims,

                                      Do you have any way of estimating the games you had an edge on? That is, could you argue that you were "on the right side" in various contests even though you lost? I'm not necessarily asking for % probability - I guess only God knows that, and maybe that is still a mystery written into the universe as part of human observation - but it is clearly the case that people have an edge on particular games. Knowing which ones would be the greater aid in calculating probability plays and straights vs parlays, etc. as we discuss here.
                                      Comment
                                      • Gaze73
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-27-14
                                        • 3291

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Bsims
                                        Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 singlegames.
                                        So he saves 1 cent on a parlay but the variance is higher. If someone bets 4 games at -110 they are expected to lose 2 and lose 20 bucks. If someone bets $25 on a 4-teamer instead they are almost 94% sure to lose all of it.

                                        And what if all games win? Singles pay out $400, Parlay pays out $307.

                                        The only scenario where the parlay is better is when 3 or 4 games lose.

                                        At the end of the day it doesn't matter, people who enjoy parlays are usually gamblers and the end result in the long run is always the same.
                                        Comment
                                        • Bsims
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 02-03-09
                                          • 827

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Bsims
                                          Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 single games.
                                          I had assumed that average 50% correct bettor was better off betting the parlay was because he had a negative expected return. Thus he ended up losing less with the parlay because he bet less (1 instead of 4). This of course implies that if he had a positive expected return the 4 single wagers would be better because of a higher amount wagered (kinda of what StakinGreen had mentioned earlier). So I set about demonstrating this with the following spreadsheet.

                                          Average Guesser Slightly Better Has Small edge Big Edge
                                          Odds 1.9091 13.2833 1.9091 13.2833 1.9091 13.2833 1.9091 13.2833
                                          Prob 0.50 0.50 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.56 0.56
                                          ExpRet 0.9545 0.8302 0.9927 0.9712 1.0309 1.1295 1.0691 1.3063
                                          Net/$ -$0.0455 -$0.1698 -$0.0073 -$0.0288 $0.0309 $0.1295 $0.0691 $0.3063
                                          AmtBet $4.00 $1.00 $4.00 $1.00 $4.00 $1.00 $4.00 $1.00
                                          Net -$0.1818 -$0.1698 -$0.0291 -$0.0288 $0.1236 $0.1295 $0.2764 $0.3063
                                          I picked 4 scenarios based on the probability of getting each game correct. These ranged from 50% to 56%. The first two columns (50%) demonstrated what I had said earlier. I expected the total net to turn in favor of the 4 $1.00 single wagers when the bettor's probability went above 53%. But it didn't. In all cases he was better off betting $1.00 on the 4 team parlay instead of the 4 single wagers. As Gaze73 has pointed out, the variance is an issue. He needs to be able to withstand roughly 15 losses before getting a positive return.

                                          Since it's early in the morning, and I'm not sure how alert I am, it's possible I've made an error in the spreadsheet. I don't see it, does anyone?

                                          Comment
                                          • Bsims
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 02-03-09
                                            • 827

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by StackinGreen
                                            Sims,
                                            Do you have any way of estimating the games you had an edge on? That is, could you argue that you were "on the right side" in various contests even though you lost? I'm not necessarily asking for % probability - I guess only God knows that, and maybe that is still a mystery written into the universe as part of human observation - but it is clearly the case that people have an edge on particular games. Knowing which ones would be the greater aid in calculating probability plays and straights vs parlays, etc. as we discuss here.
                                            I do not have a good way of demonstrating my edge on any particular wager. None of my past efforts in doing this have proven fruitful. Although I continue to try. I really believe the current approach I'm developing towards a soccer wagering system should theoretically do this. We shall see.

                                            Moreover, I really don't believe anyone can assign an accurate probability of winning on their wagers. I do think some can use techniques that will get their expected probabilities high enough to win consistently. I just don't think the actual value is accurate. Just my thoughts, and I'm sure many will disagree.
                                            Comment
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