Buddy hits 4 $100 parlay last nite

[Sports Doc]

4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000


He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

Whats your opinion guys ???

[Waterstpub87]

Its not really an opinion thing. 99+% of the time, its a terrible bet. A 4 teamer worse than a 3 teamer.

[Choi The Gamer]

4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000


He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

Whats your opinion guys ???

My opinion is that he should take the money and run!

[hehfest]

He should let it all ride on another 4 team parlay and then he will have 10k instead of 1k.

[Sports Doc]

Its not really an opinion thing. 99+% of the time, its a terrible bet. A 4 teamer worse than a 3 teamer.

he also argued the yanks were -150 & he got them even$ in parlay ?

[brodie]

He should let it all ride on another 4 team parlay and then he will have 10k instead of 1k.

repeat a few times over and he's rich. that's how bill gates got his fortune

[Sports Doc]

bill Gates was Killed in India for givin posionus vaccine to kids there They hung him & his tranny wife!!

They were replace w clones by Cabal known as Illuminatti lol

see conspiracydailyupdate.com

[KVB]

Seriously, the mods are really sleeping at SBR right now.

Letting posters run amok, even in the Think Tank.

[CamNewtonOutfit]

4team parlay $100 pays 10/1 so he won $1000

He had Astros won Yanks won yanks over won GB-6 won


He argued with me its not a sucker bet bec. the your risking 100 to win a grand

I argued its very hard to win 4 wagers

Whats your opinion guys ???

I won an 11 teamer last week but im doing stat arb so entered a lot of different types of bets all at once

[Kindred]

Parlays have lower house edge than straight wagers, the variance may be hard on some but they certainly aren't sucker bets

[mtofell]

My nephew won an 8-team $40 last month in Vegas..... $6600! Literally, the second sports bet of his life. It all came down to NFL Bills +2.5 @ Cards and "the catch". Had Cards kicked the extra point he would have lost. Final was 22-20.

[StackinGreen]

My nephew won an 8-team $40 last month in Vegas..... $6600! Literally, the second sports bet of his life. It all came down to NFL Bills +2.5 @ Cards and "the catch". Had Cards kicked the extra point he would have lost. Final was 22-20.

went from possibly worst beat ever to best result in his life

[Gaze73]

Parlays have lower house edge than straight wagers, the variance may be hard on some but they certainly aren't sucker bets

You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.

[StackinGreen]

You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.

He does point out that you could theoretically increase edge, but when you see the type of players who constantly attack these wagers and how many games they play, you quickly see they have little knowledge and are going for lotto scenarios.

[mtofell]

went from possibly worst beat ever to best result in his life

Oh yeah... he was losing his mind! Here's the whole story if anyone is interested:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3632588-winning-8-leg-parlay-lost-ticket-vegas.html

[Itsamazing777]

Won a few bailout 4 teamers for 500 risked.

[HedgeHog]

Ok, your friend hit some 4 team teasers. If I win the lottery should I also post that in the Think Tank (especially if it was a quick pick). Thread should be moved to Players Talk.

[Bsims]

You couldn't be more wrong. Parlays multiply house edge, or player's edge if any. An average bettor will lose 5 cents on a dollar on a single bet but around 17 cents on a 4- teamer. That's why bookies love parlay bettors. Also, the variance is so insane most people will blow a deposit after deposit very rapidly.

Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 singlegames.

[StackinGreen]

Sims,

Do you have any way of estimating the games you had an edge on? That is, could you argue that you were "on the right side" in various contests even though you lost? I'm not necessarily asking for % probability - I guess only God knows that, and maybe that is still a mystery written into the universe as part of human observation - but it is clearly the case that people have an edge on particular games. Knowing which ones would be the greater aid in calculating probability plays and straights vs parlays, etc. as we discuss here.

[Gaze73]

Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 singlegames.

So he saves 1 cent on a parlay but the variance is higher. If someone bets 4 games at -110 they are expected to lose 2 and lose 20 bucks. If someone bets $25 on a 4-teamer instead they are almost 94% sure to lose all of it.

And what if all games win? Singles pay out $400, Parlay pays out $307.

The only scenario where the parlay is better is when 3 or 4 games lose.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter, people who enjoy parlays are usually gamblers and the end result in the long run is always the same.

[Bsims]

Your math is correct with standard -110 lines and parlays that pay true odds (13.28331). An average bettor who hits 50% would indeed lose 0.04545 on a single wager and 0.16979 on the 4 team parlay. However, if he is interested in action on 4 games and took 4 single game wagers, he would lose a total of 0.18182 because even though his expected return is higher, so would the amount he wagered. He's better off wagering a single 4 team parlay than 4 single games.

I had assumed that average 50% correct bettor was better off betting the parlay was because he had a negative expected return. Thus he ended up losing less with the parlay because he bet less (1 instead of 4). This of course implies that if he had a positive expected return the 4 single wagers would be better because of a higher amount wagered (kinda of what StakinGreen had mentioned earlier). So I set about demonstrating this with the following spreadsheet.

	Average Guesser		Slightly Better		Has Small edge		Big Edge
Odds	1.9091	13.2833	1.9091	13.2833	1.9091	13.2833	1.9091	13.2833
Prob	0.50	0.50	0.52	0.52	0.54	0.54	0.56	0.56
ExpRet	0.9545	0.8302	0.9927	0.9712	1.0309	1.1295	1.0691	1.3063
Net/$	-$0.0455	-$0.1698	-$0.0073	-$0.0288	$0.0309	$0.1295	$0.0691	$0.3063
AmtBet	$4.00	$1.00	$4.00	$1.00	$4.00	$1.00	$4.00	$1.00
Net	-$0.1818	-$0.1698	-$0.0291	-$0.0288	$0.1236	$0.1295	$0.2764	$0.3063

I picked 4 scenarios based on the probability of getting each game correct. These ranged from 50% to 56%. The first two columns (50%) demonstrated what I had said earlier. I expected the total net to turn in favor of the 4 $1.00 single wagers when the bettor's probability went above 53%. But it didn't. In all cases he was better off betting $1.00 on the 4 team parlay instead of the 4 single wagers. As Gaze73 has pointed out, the variance is an issue. He needs to be able to withstand roughly 15 losses before getting a positive return.

Since it's early in the morning, and I'm not sure how alert I am, it's possible I've made an error in the spreadsheet. I don't see it, does anyone?

[Bsims]

Sims,
Do you have any way of estimating the games you had an edge on? That is, could you argue that you were "on the right side" in various contests even though you lost? I'm not necessarily asking for % probability - I guess only God knows that, and maybe that is still a mystery written into the universe as part of human observation - but it is clearly the case that people have an edge on particular games. Knowing which ones would be the greater aid in calculating probability plays and straights vs parlays, etc. as we discuss here.

I do not have a good way of demonstrating my edge on any particular wager. None of my past efforts in doing this have proven fruitful. Although I continue to try. I really believe the current approach I'm developing towards a soccer wagering system should theoretically do this. We shall see.

Moreover, I really don't believe anyone can assign an accurate probability of winning on their wagers. I do think some can use techniques that will get their expected probabilities high enough to win consistently. I just don't think the actual value is accurate. Just my thoughts, and I'm sure many will disagree.