Does betting MLB Runline favorites for dog money really work?

**solring** · 09-21-20, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Bsims

Should these types of pick threads should be left here or put somewhere else?

Somewhere else.

**Runeblade** · 09-21-20, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by solring

Somewhere else.

**semibluff** · 09-21-20, 07:47 PM

I don't think there's a problem with someone trying something but testing a margin of victory theory over multiple sports in 1 thread/test is doomed before it starts. If 1 sport would have shown an edge but 3 other sports lost the winning edge is going to be masked by the losers. You're better off collating data rather than making picks. I guess a picks thread is more fun.

**Runeblade** · 09-21-20, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

I don't think there's a problem with someone trying something but testing a margin of victory theory over multiple sports in 1 thread/test is doomed before it starts. If 1 sport would have shown an edge but 3 other sports lost the winning edge is going to be masked by the losers. You're better off collating data rather than making picks. I guess a picks thread is more fun.

I'm just doing something outside of the box. Could it be stupid? yes. Will it fail? probably. Is it interesting and making you guys to scratch your heads? yup. At the end of the day I'm having fun. For the haters, don't click on the thread, just relax, make your bets and go have a sandwich.

**Runeblade** · 09-21-20, 09:23 PM

9/22/2020

ATP Leonardo Mayer -6(+140) $1 to win $1.40 WIN
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -8.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
MLB Boston Red Sox -1.5(+165) $1 to win $1.65 WIN

Record 20-23 47%
Bankroll $5002.30 +$1.05
Overall +$2.30

**solring** · 09-22-20, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by Runeblade

Is it interesting and making you guys to scratch your heads? yup.

Mmm...nope on both counts...

**Runeblade** · 09-22-20, 08:13 PM

9/23/2020

KBO Kiwoom Heroes -1.5(+115) $8 to win $9.20 WIN
NPB Hanshin Tigers -1.5(+180) $1 to win $1.80 LOSS
ATP Daniel Altmaier -6.5(+115) $1 to win $1.15 WIN
NBA Boston Celtics -5(+120) $4 to win $4.80 LOSS
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+170) $32 to win $54.40 WIN
MLB Cleveland Indians -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 LOSS

Record 22-26 46%
Bankroll $5,061.05 +$58.75
Overall +$61.05

**Runeblade** · 09-23-20, 09:23 PM

9/24/2020

*NOTE* Added NFL first team to score wins the game "No"
Removed NFL 2-3 turnovers in the game because the book no longer has that wager option.

ATP Stefanos Tsitsipas -5(+130) $1 to win $1.30 LOSS
KBO KT Wiz -1.5(+140) $1 to win $1.40 LOSS
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+160) $2 to win $3.20 WIN
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -8(+125) $8 to win $10 LOSS
MLB Toronto Blue Jays -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 WIN
NFL Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars first team to score wins the game "NO"(+140) $1 to win $1.40
LOSS

Record 24-30 44%
Bankroll $5,056.65 -$4.40
Overall +$56.65

**Runeblade** · 09-24-20, 09:11 PM

9/25/2020

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+140) $2 to win $2.80 LOSS
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+160) $1 to win $1.60 LOSS
ATP Marco Cecchinato -6(+140) $2 to win $2.80 WIN
NBA Boston Celtics -5.5(+125) $16 to win $20 WIN
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 LOSS
Bundesliga Hertha Berlin -0.5(+130) $1 to win $1.30 LOSS
MLB Game 2 of doubleheader St Louis Cardinals -1.5(+190) $1 to win $1.90 WIN

Record 27-34 44%
Bankroll $5,076.35 +19.70
Overall +$76.35

**Runeblade** · 09-25-20, 09:06 PM

9/26/2020

KBO KIA Tigers -1.5(+140) $4 to win $5.40 LOSS
NPB Yokohama Dena Baystars -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 WIN
ATP Stefanos Tsitsipas -4.5(+125) $1 to win $1.45 LOSS
EPL Chelsea -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 LOSS
Bundesliga Borussia Monchengladbach -1.5(+110) $2 to win $2.20 LOSS
MLB Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 LOSS
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+155) $2 to win $3.10 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -7(+120) $1 to win $1.20 WIN

Record 29-40 42%
Bankroll $5,069.95 -$6.40
Overall +$69.95

**Runeblade** · 09-26-20, 08:43 PM

9/27/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 5 in a row NHL

KBO Samsung Lions -1.5(+140) $8 to win $11.20 LOSS
NPB Chiba Lotte Marines -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 WIN
ATP Alexander Zverev -8(+110) $2 to win $2.20 PUSH
EPL Manchester City -2(+135) $2 to win $2.70 LOSS
Bundesliga Bayern Munich -2.5(+135) $4 to win $5.40 LOSS
MLB Oakland Athletics -1.5(+160) $2 to win $3.20 WIN
NBA Boston Celtics -5(+115) $1 to win $1.15 LOSS
NFL Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints Will the team that scores first win the game? "No"(+130) $2 to win $2.60 LOSS

Record 31-45 41%
Bankroll $5,057.85 -$12.10
Overall+$57.85

**Runeblade** · 09-27-20, 07:36 PM

9/28/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 5 in a row NHL

NPB Hiroshima Toyo Carp -1.5(+165) $1 to win $1.65 WIN
EPL Liverpool -1.5(+130) $4 to win $5.20 WIN
NFL Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO"(+140) $4 to win $5.60 WIN
ATP Casper Ruud -10.5(+115) $4 to win $4.60 WIN
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+155) $4 to win $6.20 WIN

Record 36-45 44%
Bankroll $5,081.10 +$23.25
Overall +$81.10

Note* NHL season is complete

**Runeblade** · 09-28-20, 09:22 PM

9/29/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 5 in a row NHL and KBO

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+100) $16 to win $16 LOSS
NPB Orix Buffaloes -1.5(+155) $1 to win $1.55 WIN
ATP Andrey Rublev -9(+125) $1 to win $1.25 LOSS
MLB New York Yankees -1.5(+160) $1 to win $1.60 WIN

Record 38-47 45%
Bankroll $5,067.25 $-13.85
Overall +$67.25

**Runeblade** · 09-29-20, 09:38 PM

9/30/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 6 in a row KBO

KBO Kiwoom Heroes -1.5(+135) $32 to win $43.20 LOSS
NPB Chunichi Dragons -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 WIN
ATP Dominic Thiem -9(+140) $2 to win $2.80 PUSH
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -6.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 WIN
MLB Tampa Bay Rays -1.5(+160) $1 to win $1.60 WIN

Record 41-48 46%
Bankroll $5,040.95 -$26.30
Overall +$40.95

**Runeblade** · 09-30-20, 09:19 AM

10/1/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 7 in a row KBO

KBO Kiwoom Heroes -1.5(+140) $64 to win $89.60 LOSS
NPB Orix Buffaloes -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 LOSS
ATP Roberto Bautista-Agut -9(+155) $2 to win $3.10 WIN
NFL Denver Broncos @ New York Jets Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO"(+140) $1 to win $1.40 WIN
MLB Atlanta Braves -1.5(+145) $1 to win $1.45 WIN

Record 44-50 47%
Bankroll $4,981.90 -$59.05
Overall -$18.10

**Runeblade** · 10-01-20, 12:30 PM

10/2/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 8 in a row KBO

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+145) $128 to win $185.60 LOSS
NPB Yomiuri Giants -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 LOSS
ATP Diego Schwartzman -10(+140) $1 to win $1.40 LOSS
Bundesliga Union Berlin -0.5(+115) $8 to win $9.20 WIN
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -12(+130) $1 to win $1.30 LOSS
MLB San Diego Padres -1.5(+150) $1 to win $1.50 WIN

Record 46-54 46%
Bankroll $4,860.60 -$121.30
Overall -$139.40

**Runeblade** · 10-02-20, 11:55 AM

10/3/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO

KBO NC Dinos -1.5(+150) $256 to win $384 LOSS
NPB Yokohama Dena Baystars -1.5(+155) $4 to win $6.20 LOSS
ATP Stefanos Tsitsipas -9(+155) $2 to win $3.10 Opponent Retired due to injury (N/A)
Bundesliga RB Leipzig -2(+125) $1 to win $1.25 WIN
EPL Manchester City -2(+150) $1 to win $1.50 LOSS

Record 47-57 45%
Bankroll $4,600.85 -$259.75
Overall -$399.15

**Runeblade** · 10-03-20, 01:30 PM

10/4/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+140) $512 to win $716.80 WIN
NPB Chiba Lotte Marines -1.5(+160) $8 to win $12.80 WIN
ATP Dominic Thiem -10.5(+115) $2 to win $2.30 LOSS
EPL Liverpool -1.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
Bundesliga Bayern Munich -2.5(+105) $1 to win $1.05 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -11.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
NFL Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers Will the team that scores first win the game "NO"(+150) $1 to win $1.50 LOSS

Record 49-62 44%
Bankroll $5,322.45 +$721.60
Overall +$322.45

**Runeblade** · 10-04-20, 07:34 PM

10/5/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

NPB Hanshin Tigers -1.5(+175) $1 to win $1.75 WIN
ATP Novak Djokovic -10(+135) $4 to win $5.40 LOSS
MLB Oakland Athletics -1.5(+145) $1 to win $1.45 LOSS
NFL Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO"(+140) $2 to win $2.80 LOSS

Record 50-65 43%
Bankroll $5,317.20 -$5.25
Overall +$317.20

**Runeblade** · 10-05-20, 08:22 PM

10/6/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO Samsung Lions -1.5(+125) $1 to win $1.25 LOSS
NPB Rakuten Golden Eagles -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 LOSS
ATP Rafael Nadal -10.5(+140) $8 to win $11.20 LOSS
MLB Oakland Athletics -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -9.5(+120) $4 to win $4.80 LOSS

Record 50-70 42%
Bankroll $5,301.20 -$16

Overall +$301.20

**Runeblade** · 10-06-20, 04:18 PM

10/7/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020.

KBO NC Dinos -1.5(+115) $2 to win $2.30 LOSS
NPB Hiroshima Toyo Carp -1.5(+160) $2 to win $3.20 WIN
ATP Novak Djokovic -9.5(+125) $16 to win $20 LOSS
MLB Houston Astros -1.5(+165) $4 to win $6.60 LOSS

Record 51-73 41%
Bankroll $5,282.40 -$18.80
Overall +$282.40

**Bsims** · 10-06-20, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by Runeblade

10/4/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+140) $512 to win $716.80 WIN
NPB Chiba Lotte Marines -1.5(+160) $8 to win $12.80 WIN
ATP Dominic Thiem -10.5(+115) $2 to win $2.30 LOSS
EPL Liverpool -1.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
Bundesliga Bayern Munich -2.5(+105) $1 to win $1.05 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -11.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
NFL Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers Will the team that scores first win the game "NO"(+150) $1 to win $1.50 LOSS

Record 49-62 44%
Bankroll $5,322.45 +$721.60
Overall +$322.45

This day demonstrates the problem with your approach. You normally are betting $1-$2 on a game. On this date, you bet $1-$8 on games except for one. You bet $512 on a KBO game and won. What would you have done if the book had limited you to a $500 bet on this game? If they didn't limit you and you lost, your next bets would have been $1,024 then $2,048. Losing those two you would have to bet $4,096, but wouldn't have it in your bankroll. Just too risky of a system. Give it yp.

**Runeblade** · 10-07-20, 06:06 AM

Originally posted by Bsims

This day demonstrates the problem with your approach. You normally are betting $1-$2 on a game. On this date, you bet $1-$8 on games except for one. You bet $512 on a KBO game and won. What would you have done if the book had limited you to a $500 bet on this game? If they didn't limit you and you lost, your next bets would have been $1,024 then $2,048. Losing those two you would have to bet $4,096, but wouldn't have it in your bankroll. Just too risky of a system. Give it yp.

True, I got VERY lucky on that KBO game and yes betting limits can be a problem. If I lost the 10th step with is a $512 bet then I would go back to $1 and take the loss and start over again. So far I'm staying above water though.

**Runeblade** · 10-07-20, 07:50 PM

10/8/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO KT Wiz -1.5(+125) $4 to win $5 LOSS
NPB Orix Buffaloes -1.5(+145) $1 to win $1.45 Postponed
MLB Houston Astros -1.5(+170) $8 to win $13.60 WIN
NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO"(+140) $4 to win $5.60 WIN

Record 53-74 42%
Bankroll $5,297.60 +$15.20
Overall +$297.60

**Runeblade** · 10-08-20, 08:02 PM

10/9/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO Kia Tigers -1.5(+130) $8 to win $10.40 WIN
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+165) $1 to win $1.65 LOSS
ATP Rafael Nadal -8(+130) $32 to win $41.60 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -9.5(+125) $8 to win $10 LOSS

Record 54-77 41%
Bankroll $5,267.00 -$30.60
Overall +$267

**Runeblade** · 10-09-20, 09:39 PM

10/10/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO KT Wiz -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 LOSS
NPB Yokohama Dena Baystars -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 WIN

Record 55-78 41%
Bankroll $5,269.40 +$2.40
Overall +$269.40

**Runeblade** · 10-10-20, 05:39 PM

10/11/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020
Note* NBA season is complete

KBO Doosan Bears -1.5(+135) $2 to win $2.70 LOSS
NPB Yokohama Dena Baystars -1.5(+175) $1 to win $1.75 LOSS
ATP Rafael Nadal -4(+130) $64 to win $64 to win $83.20 WIN
MLB Tampa Bay Rays -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 LOSS
NFL Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO"(+140) $1 to win $1.40 WIN
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -7.5(+120) $16 to win $19.20 WIN

Record 58-81 42%
Bankroll $5,369.20 +$99.80
Overall +$369.20

**Runeblade** · 10-11-20, 08:55 PM

10/12/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

NPB Yomiuri Giants -1.5(+155) $2 to win $3.10 LOSS
ATP Filip Krajinovic -4.5(+120) $1 to win $1.20 LOSS
MLB Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5(+140) $2 to win $2.80 LOSS
NFL Los Angeles Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Will the team that scores first win the game? "NO" (+150) $1 to win $1.50 WIN

Record 59-84 41%
Bankroll $5,365.70 -$3.50
Overall +$365.70

**Runeblade** · 10-12-20, 06:23 PM

10/13/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO NC Dinos -1.5(+150) $4 to win $6 LOSS
NPB Rakuten Golden Eagles -1.5(+155) $4 to win $6.20 LOSS
ATP Karen Khachanov -6.5(+125) $2 to win $2.50 LOSS
MLB Tampa Bay Rays -1.5(+145) $4 to win $5.80 WIN

Record 40%
Bankroll $5,361.50 -$4.20
Overall +$361.50

**Runeblade** · 10-13-20, 08:17 PM

10/14/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO LG Twins -1.5(+150) $8 to win $12 LOSS
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+140) $8 to win $12 WIN
ATP Denis Shapovalov -6(+165) $4 to win $6.60 WIN
MLB Tampa Bay Rays -1.5(+110) $1 to win $1.10 LOSS

Record 62-89 41%
Bankroll $5,371.10 +$9.60
Overall +$371.10

**oilcountry99** · 10-14-20, 08:03 AM

Just rolling along here Runeblade. What is the most total risk you've had to put out in one day. I think your single biggest risk wager was $512 and thankfully it won for you. I believe you said if you lose a $512 bet you would not chase beyond that. $512 would have been above my threshold in your scenario unless my profits were so large I could take the hit. Anyway keep it rolling man. I was once told that the gold is turning fav's into dogs! the trick is which ones. Looks like a fun strategy,

**Runeblade** · 10-14-20, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by oilcountry99

Just rolling along here Runeblade. What is the most total risk you've had to put out in one day. I think your single biggest risk wager was $512 and thankfully it won for you. I believe you said if you lose a $512 bet you would not chase beyond that. $512 would have been above my threshold in your scenario unless my profits were so large I could take the hit. Anyway keep it rolling man. I was once told that the gold is turning fav's into dogs! the trick is which ones. Looks like a fun strategy,

Yeah I almost bit it with the KBO but I got lucky I must admit. Hey luck is part of the game right? The only concern I see here is the progress is slow because I'm starting at $1 so the system is based on hoping that I hit on a high step like 5 or 6 steps into the martingale. $512 is the max bet because I must stay in the confines of bet limits so $512 seems pretty safe. Also, If this system does work in the end which will take many months to prove, I would have to stay under the radar of the book makers. The good thing is I'm only hitting at a 40% rate but +$361 so it's working so far.

I do have an option to switch from a martingale to set bet spreads in the future which would be less aggressive and more safe. That's the fun thing about experimentation, is that you can change what ever you want. I'm also trying to uncover the power of underdog prices. Almost everyone is on the same conveyor belt just looking for the close "VALUE". All you here on these forums are VALUE VALUE VALUE!!!...same shit different day. I'm going on the path least traveled. People call me crazy and they are right lol

**oilcountry99** · 10-14-20, 07:51 PM

Can you elaborate on your set bet spreads methodology?

**Runeblade** · 10-14-20, 08:32 PM

Bets spreads is just a more safe form of progression instead of martingale. for example: 1st Level $25-$50-$75-$100 and then 2nd Level $100-$150-$200-$250..and so on. You can pretty much go with any sequence you wish and add levels depending on your bankroll and betting habits. I have to do more research on this though because hitting 40% may be very difficult to profit betting this way.

**Runeblade** · 10-14-20, 08:45 PM

10/15/2020

Note* Longest losing streak is 9 in a row KBO 9/24/2020--10/3/2020

KBO KT Wiz -1.5(+140) $16 to win $22.40 LOSS
NPB Rakuten Golden Eagles -1.5(+155) $1 to win $1.55 WIN
ATP Andrey Rublev -5(+175) $1 to win $1.75 LOSS
MLB Tampa Bay Rays -1.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS

Record 63-92 41%
Bankroll $5,353.65 -$17.45
Overall +$353.65