Does betting MLB Runline favorites for dog money really work?

[Runeblade]

Continued from Players talk. I moved it here because it seems to be more relevant for this forum.

[Runeblade]

9/14/2020 1 Unit Milwaukee Brewers -1.5(+190)

Record 5-8 38%

Units +0.35

Longest Winning Streak 2

Longest Losing Streak 3

[Runeblade]

Doing some changes to this system.
Will be adding plays from KBO, Japanese professional baseball and NHL Puck lines.
Also, I will be replacing units with $$.
I'm going with a martingale system with these plays starting at $1 up to 10 steps. For example: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256-512. 10 losses in a row is considered a failure which is equal to a $1,023 loss

I will be starting with a fake $5,000 bankroll. If the bankroll reaches $0 this will be considered a failure and will be the end of this thread.

Reaching a $10,000 bankroll will be considered a success.

WARNING!!

Do not Follow these!!!

This is just research, tracking and collecting data.

Tail these at your own risk! You have been warned!

[Runeblade]

9/14/2020

MLB Milwaukee Brewers -1.5(+190) $1 to win $1.90 LOSS
NHL Vegas Golden Knights -1.5(+150) $1 to win $1.50 LOSS
NPB Chiba Lotte Marines -1.5(+140) $1 to win $1.40 LOSS
KBO Lotte Giants -1.5(+145) $1 to win $1.40 WIN

Record 1-3 25%

Bankroll $4,998.40 -$1.60

[Runeblade]

9/15/2020

*Note: Added NBA highest ATS favorite and changed it to an underdog price.

NBA Los Angeles Clippers -9.5(+125) $1 to win $1.25 LOSS
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+150) $2 to win $3 LOSS
MLB Chicago White Sox -1.5(+150) $2 to win $3 WIN
KBO Lotte Giants -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 WIN
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+160) $2 to win $3.20 LOSS

Record 3-6 33%

Bankroll $4,997.75 -$0.65

[Gaze73]

Why should it work? If anything, the biggest fav of the day is probably overrated so the dog spread makes more sense. Inb4 -8% roi long term.

[Runeblade]

Why should it work? If anything, the biggest fav of the day is probably overrated so the dog spread makes more sense. Inb4 -8% roi long term.

Well, I'm figuring I only have to win once out of 10 hoping to hit at a later step.

[Runeblade]

9/16/2020

MLB Milwaukee Brewers -1.5(+150) $1 to win $1.50 LOSS
KBO KT Wiz -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 WIN
NPB Hiroshima Toyo Carp(+160) $4 to win $6.40 (Postponed)

Record 4-7 36%

Yesterday's Bankroll $4997.75
Current Bankroll $4998.10 +$0.35
Overall -$1.90

[ChocMilk23]

There is a stanford paper on this kind of. Not exactly what you are doing but -1.5 runs vs taking the ML. The paper found that it is way more profitable to always take the -1.5 if you like the teams ml. Good Luck

[Runeblade]

There is a stanford paper on this kind of. Not exactly what you are doing but -1.5 runs vs taking the ML. The paper found that it is way more profitable to always take the -1.5 if you like the teams ml. Good Luck

Hey thanks brotha. I'm going to do a lot of tweaking and messing around with it by plugging in all kinds of wierd bets. The best thing about a fake bankroll is you can do what ever you want with it. Good luck with your bets today.

[Runeblade]

9/17/2020

Note* Added NFL number of turnovers in the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

MLB Miami Marlins -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 LOSS
NFL Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns 2-3 turnovers in the game(+125) $1 to win $1.25 WIN
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+165) $4 to win $6.60 LOSS
NBA Boston Celtics -4.5(+120) $2 to win $2.40 LOSS
NPB Chunichi Dragons -1.5(+170) $4 to win $6.80 LOSS
KBO Doosan Bears -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 LOSS

Record 5-12 29%
Bankroll $4986.35 $-11.75
Overall $-13.65

[semibluff]

There is a stanford paper on this kind of. Not exactly what you are doing but -1.5 runs vs taking the ML. The paper found that it is way more profitable to always take the -1.5 if you like the teams ml. Good Luck

I'm not disputing what you've said but it does sound counter-intuitive. Books tend to have more juice on close head-to-head contests than they do on lop-sided head-to-heads. If it's better value to bet a -110, -110 spread than a -150, +130 moneyline then it's because the book is miscalculating the value of certain handicaps. (I don't follow the sport so I don't know what the spread is worth).

[Gaze73]

I'm not disputing what you've said but it does sound counter-intuitive. Books tend to have more juice on close head-to-head contests than they do on lop-sided head-to-heads. If it's better value to bet a -110, -110 spread than a -150, +130 moneyline then it's because the book is miscalculating the value of certain handicaps. (I don't follow the sport so I don't know what the spread is worth).

Yeah it does sound sketchy. I know that in soccer the -1.5 spread just increases variance for no reason if you like the fav. You must have an extremely good reason to take the spread. E.g. if you can have 75% win rate at -250 ML but 55% on the -110 spread why take the latter when it's 5% yield on either play. And since you risk more money you win more money. In tennis I find the same. I'd rather take a fav straight up than grab the -4 spread which obviously decreases the win rate a lot.

[Runeblade]

The method behind my madness is this:

If you look at the ML on all these plays I've played so far you will see that it's pretty close. The book is telling us its almost a coin flip. Honestly who the f*** is going to know who is going to win the game. I'm effectively taking the juice out of the equation and betting on the favorite by giving up 1.5 runs. The only missing data point is how many times the favorite has won by 2+ runs over a long history. I would assume that it's more difficult for the book to determine who gets the +1.5 and -1.5 on close ML odds. I seek to take advantage of this. I don't expect to come out a winner but hey what the hell.

It also seems to be the same in hockey. I will say though that playoff hockey is a lot more competitive which could be more difficult with a lot more 1 score games especially when they get deep into the last couple of series.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

This sort of relationship is the easiest possible for automated algorithms to spot, the bookies (and markets!) would eradicate it decades ago I'm afraid.

[Runeblade]

This sort of relationship is the easiest possible for automated algorithms to spot, the bookies (and markets!) would eradicate it decades ago I'm afraid.

Your breaking my soul.....lol

[stevenash]

I'm a spot player, I'm also big on wagering road favorites on the money line.
Been turning a modest profit for awhile.

However as a spot player I pick and choose the game.
Works for me, best of luck.

[Runeblade]

I'm a spot player, I'm also big on wagering road favorites on the money line.
Been turning a modest profit for awhile.

However as a spot player I pick and choose the game.
Works for me, best of luck.

Hey thanks man, I'm just doing some crazy shit no one else does lol. Obstacles and failures a part of the building blocks of success. Good luck on all your betting today.

[stevenash]

Hey thanks man, I'm just doing some crazy shit no one else does lol. Obstacles and failures a part of the building blocks of success. Good luck on all your betting today.

It's OK to lose ONLY if you analyze what went wrong, and you know learn from your mistakes.

There's two sides to every wager, look at each side with a level head before putting down your money.

Case in point, I liked the over in last nights Brown game.
Before making the bet I said to myself "the line is 44.5 and the Brown are -.5.5"
"For me to collect this over wager I am going to the Browns to score at least 24 points, minimum"
And if so, can the Bengals score enough to push it over 44.5?"

After answering yes, than I make the wager.

I'm getting off track here, but you see my point.

Yeah, it's fine to experiment as long as you are learning things you can apply in the future.

[Runeblade]

9/18/2020

*Note: Added England Premier League and Germany Bundesliga to highest ML favorite to ATS dog price.

MLB Chicago Cubs -1.5(+170) $4 to win $6.80 LOSS
NBA La Lakers -9(+125) $4 to win $5.00 WIN
KBO NC Dinos -1.5(+135) $2 to win $2.70 LOSS
NPB Chunichi Dragons -1.5(+180) $8.00 to win $14.40 WIN
Bundesliga Bayern Munich -3(+105) $1 to win $1.05 WIN

Record 8-14 36%
Bankroll $5000.80 $+14.45
Overall $+0.80

[Runeblade]

It's OK to lose ONLY if you analyze what went wrong, and you know learn from your mistakes.

There's two sides to every wager, look at each side with a level head before putting down your money.

Case in point, I liked the over in last nights Brown game.
Before making the bet I said to myself "the line is 44.5 and the Brown are -.5.5"
"For me to collect this over wager I am going to the Browns to score at least 24 points, minimum"
And if so, can the Bengals score enough to push it over 44.5?"

After answering yes, than I make the wager.

I'm getting off track here, but you see my point.

Yeah, it's fine to experiment as long as you are learning things you can apply in the future.

I'll tell ya what I learned. Bet on Bayern Munich....holy shit lol

[stevenash]

I'll tell ya what I learned. Bet on Bayern Munich....holy shit lol

[ChocMilk23]

I didn't write the paper... But the amount of 1 run games in baseball it is more profitable to take the run line which is + money on -1.5 then it is to just play the ml. Read the paper it is interesting... GL

[Runeblade]

I didn't write the paper... But the amount of 1 run games in baseball it is more profitable to take the run line which is + money on -1.5 then it is to just play the ml. Read the paper it is interesting... GL

Yeah I have to check that out. You too keep cashing those tickets!

[Runeblade]

9/19/2020

Note* Added ATP Tennis highest ranked ML favorite to ATS dog price

EPL Manchester United -1.5(+105) $1 to win $1.05 LOSS
ATP Novak Djokovic -6.5(+115) $1 to win $1.15 LOSS
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+165) $8 to win $13.20 LOSS
Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund -1(+115) $1 to win $1.15 WIN
MLB Miami Marlins -1.5(+180) $8 to win $14.40 WIN
NBA Boston Celtics -5(+115) $1 to win $1.15 WIN

Record 11-17 39%
Bankroll $5,007.50 $+6.70
Overall $+7.50

[stevenash]

I didn't write the paper... But the amount of 1 run games in baseball it is more profitable to take the run line which is + money on -1.5 then it is to just play the ml. Read the paper it is interesting... GL

With the new rules the one run games are more commonplace.

[Bsims]

Continued from Players talk. I moved it here because it seems to be more relevant for this forum.

With all due respect, I don't believe this is the correct forum topic for this thread. The purpose of Handicapper Think Tank is "Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math". Expressing the theory and opining on whether it has merit seems reasonable. But, to just list picks routinely doesn't contribute to validating or refuting the theory. It would take hundreds of picks to even begin making judgement on the theory. The same applies to the other theory you have started a thread on.

One could use past data for a year or so, simulate what would have happened had one used the theory, and report on the results. While this would not provide definitve proof, it would shed some light on whether the theory has any potential merit. Now that would be useful.

[Bsims]

There is a stanford paper on this kind of. Not exactly what you are doing but -1.5 runs vs taking the ML. The paper found that it is way more profitable to always take the -1.5 if you like the teams ml. Good Luck

A link to this paper would be useful if anyone can find it.

[Runeblade]

With all due respect, I don't believe this is the correct forum topic for this thread. The purpose of Handicapper Think Tank is "Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips, tricks, odds and math". Expressing the theory and opining on whether it has merit seems reasonable. But, to just list picks routinely doesn't contribute to validating or refuting the theory. It would take hundreds of picks to even begin making judgement on the theory. The same applies to the other theory you have started a thread on.

One could use past data for a year or so, simulate what would have happened had one used the theory, and report on the results. While this would not provide definitve proof, it would shed some light on whether the theory has any potential merit. Now that would be useful.

Don't really know where else to put it. If you know a better forum LMK.

[Runeblade]

9/20/2020

EPL Leicester City -1(+110) $2 to win $2.20 WIN
Bundesliga RB Leipzig -2(+145) $1 to win $1.45 PUSH
ATP Novak Djokovic -5(+125) $2 to win $2.50 PUSH
NFL New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks 2-3 turnovers in the game (+125) $1 to win $1.25 WIN
MLB Philadelphia Phillies -1.5(+165) $1 to win $1.65 LOSS
NBA Los Angeles Lakers -9.5(+120) $1 to win $1.20 LOSS
NPB Tokyo Yakult Swallows -1.5(+170) $1 to win $1.70 LOSS

Record 13-20 39%
Bankroll $5,007.95 $+0.45
Overall $+7.95

[oilcountry99]

keep posting....nothing else is going on in here

[Runeblade]

keep posting....nothing else is going on in here

True statement LOL.

[Runeblade]

9/21/2020

ATP Nikola Milojevic -6.5(+105) $4 to win $4.20 WIN
EPL Manchester City -1.5(+135) $1 to win $1.35 WIN
NFL New Orleans Saints @ Las Vegas Raiders 2-3 turnovers in the game(+115) $1 to win $1.15 WIN
NHL Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5(+170) $16 to win $27.20 LOSS
MLB Cleveland Indians -1.5(+170) $2 to win $3.40 WIN
KBO KIA Tigers -1.5(+125) $4 to win $5 LOSS
NPB Nippon Ham Fighters -1.5(+160) $2 to win $3.20 WIN

Record 18-22 45%
Bankroll $5,001.25 $-6.70
Overall $+1.25

[Bsims]

Don't really know where else to put it. If you know a better forum LMK.

I would suggest one or more of the "Sports Betting & Handicapping Forums". Their purpose is "Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets".

Maybe I'm just picky. I would be interested in knowing what other readers of thes sub-forum think. Should these types of pick threads should be left here or put somewhere else?

[Runeblade]

Well I don't know what to tell you man. I'm doing some research on a system that probably hasn't been done before by diversifying different sports, turning favorites into underdog prices and finding out what happens. This isn't real. I'm not using real money. The very name of this forum is handicapper think tank (Handicapping theories, betting systems, tips and tricks). Is this not a system? It can be the dumbest system in the world but it's still a system lol. If you don't like it, what can I tell ya. Good luck today