What is 1/2 run in 5 innings worth?

**RickySteve** · 08-11-09, 07:55 PM

Pinnacle drop-downs are your friend.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-11-09, 08:13 PM

Dude did you smoke weed before you came to class?

No, the under 9.5 is of course the better value 9.5/9 or 9.5/8.5 total innings is higher than 5/5 innings.

Which you want. You want to be high. You want to get high........

When u takin tha unda.

Come on, are you trying to catch smart gamblers??? I copied all these answers then.

**ryanspeer2001** · 08-11-09, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

Dude did you smoke weed before you came to class?

No, the under 9.5 is of course the better value 9.5/9 or 9.5/8.5 total innings is higher than 5/5 innings.

Which you want. You want to be high. You want to get high........

When u takin tha unda.

Come on, are you trying to catch smart gamblers??? I copied all these answers then.

I'm sorry I don't understand your explanation I'm interested in how people feel about the value of the 1/2 also.

**Pancho sanza** · 08-11-09, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by curious

Let's say you like the UNDER in a game. And the total is 9 1/2. And the 1st five innings total is 5. Am I wrong in thinking that UNDER 5 runs in 5 innings is a stronger play than UNDER 9 1/2 runs in 9 innings? I am thinking this because they gave the 1/2 run to the first five innings. 5 vs 4 1/2. So, I'm thinking that a 1/2 a run is a lot in five innings.

Does anyone know what 1/2 a run is worth for the first half (1st 5 innings) in baseball?

Thanks,
Curious

You ever hear of extra innings?

Hows that 500 pick thread coming? you reach 80 units yet?

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-12-09, 03:12 AM

Ok. Look. I think you know this answer and are trying to see if we are all dumb.

But it is a little tricky, if you have never gambled before.

The under 5 is a stronger play if you know that the game is going to start out as a pitchers duel, and possibly blow up late.

But natural odds would favor the under 9.5 every time.

The only time under 9.5 would be weak would be if you somehow knew the game would have high scoring extra innings. Some teams, pheonix suns, and denver nuggets do seem to go overtime a lot at home, so that is a consideration. Everything should be considered.

Actually, if the game goes 10 whole innings, the under 5 1st 5 would be stronger.

But no, if you have a total of 5 in 5 innings you are getting 1 run per inning or 1/2 of a run per at bat.

So under 5, 1/2 of a run would be allowed every .5 innings

under 9.5, 1/2 of a run would be allowed every 9.5/9 times 2 or 18 at bats or (if the home team is winning in the middle of the ninth, game ends) 9.5 runs/8.5 innings times 2= 17 at bats.
So a 1/2 a run is allowed every .505 or .511 innings, which is higher, meaning you get a better value on the whole game if you bet the under.

Now if the game goes 9.5 innings, then the value would be equal..
1/2 an inning you would be allowed 9.5/9.5 times 2 (at bats per inning)or 19= .5 runs per inning.

If the game goes 10 full innings or more, the under 5 1st 5 has better natural value.

It's another inequality: What is the best value for half an inning: 5/5 x 2 >?< 9.5/2 x [8.5(percentage game goes 8.5) + 9(% game goes 9) + 9.5(%9.5)+10(%10)+y..y set total innings t(%y to the total innings t).

**LT Profits** · 08-12-09, 05:24 AM

Originally posted by ryanspeer2001

I'm sorry I don't understand your explanation I'm interested in how people feel about the value of the 1/2 also.

He is saying that Under 5 in 5 innings is Under 1.00 run per inning, whereas Under 9.5 in 9 innings is Under 1.06 runs per innings, and therefore has more value theoretically. Yes, extra innings would flip the value, but since the percentage of games that go to extras is relatively small, it should probably not even be considered unless the 5-inning/9-inning ratios are exremely close (say within .02 runs) or identical.

If the 5-inning ratio is better, then there is nothing else to think about.

**head_strong** · 08-12-09, 05:28 AM

Personally don't like the half, much rather have the push if the game is tied after 5.....

**Pancho sanza** · 08-12-09, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

He is saying that Under 5 in 5 innings is Under 1.00 run per inning, whereas Under 9.5 in 9 innings is Under 1.06 runs per innings, and therefore has more value theoretically. Yes, extra innings would flip the value, but since the percentage of games that go to extras is relatively small, it should probably not even be considered unless the 5-inning/9-inning ratios are exremely close (say within .02 runs) or identical.

If the 5-inning ratio is better, then there is nothing else to think about.

Nothing else to think about?

What if the starters are Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum?

**DacBietViet** · 08-12-09, 11:40 AM

just play the home team for 5 innings. they win almost every time

**Doug** · 08-12-09, 12:23 PM

It's much harder to get a nice line on a 5 inning bet. Matchbook will have a nice line on the full game, but you may not get your offer accepted for 5 innings, so you are looking at 20 cent lines quite often.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-12-09, 12:34 PM

I funked up on one part of the equation, and i forgot to factor in the push.

Amount bet (% 1st 5 pushed) + amount bet, or 'a'(money line in decimal) x 5/[5 x 2 (at bats per inning) (% 1st 5 goes under 5)]>?< aml x 9.5/[(total innings, or t)(% of time game goes t)+(total innings1)(% of time goes t1 innings) + (t2...n)(%t2...n)].

Or

a(%1st5push) +(aml5/(5 x 2))(%1st5 wins) >?< aml x 9.5/[t(%t) +t1..n(%t1..n)]

which is a simple which is greater question, or an algebraic inequality.

If you have the money line and the amount bet, you can get a more exact, theoretical answer.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-12-09, 12:38 PM

It's a good question though, because the books f?>< up a lot and you can punish them. My book always lays 3.5 for the second half total, and with 10.5 game totals, i'm like shaaw, ovah! Then you will see better value on the first five total sometimes.

But usually, 9.5 comes with 5.5, not 5.

And the question had an error too, you said with a 9.5 total, you get 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings, but its more like 5.05, or 5.1.

**curious** · 08-13-09, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

It's a good question though, because the books f?>< up a lot and you can punish them. My book always lays 3.5 for the second half total, and with 10.5 game totals, i'm like shaaw, ovah! Then you will see better value on the first five total sometimes.

But usually, 9.5 comes with 5.5, not 5.

And the question had an error too, you said with a 9.5 total, you get 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings, but its more like 5.05, or 5.1.

Actually what I said was:

Let's say you like the UNDER in a game. And the total is 9 1/2. And the 1st five innings total is 5.

Now, if the book did give you 5.5 runs in 5 innings then I think that is a stronger UNDER than 9.5 in 9.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-14-09, 03:16 AM

Dude i saw youre avatar downtown the other day. He was like eyyyyyyaaaaaaaaaaaaaa and i ran!

But, scroll up. You said 4.5 runs. Where did you get 4.5 runs????

You said i think, if you play the total of 9.5, that would give you 4.5 runs in the first 5. Wtf?
Then, you get 5 runs in the last three and a half or four innings?
I'll take under 5 then for second half!!!

Let me know if you want to match a bet with me on a total or halftime total!!