Reducing volatility with a small bankroll? Plus soccer spread/total question

**RickySteve** · 08-08-09, 03:25 PM

So you think you have a profitable model yet you don't know the value of a goal?

**Wayfarer** · 08-08-09, 04:37 PM

I am not a sophisticated in my approaches. Thankfully you don't have to be when looking at small market sports where the lines are just horrific. I use basic statistical calculations to determine very rough probabilities of outcomes and bet the lines that are grossly off.

**20Four7** · 08-09-09, 12:28 PM

Dude,

you really need to study some more if you can't compare a line at Over 2.5 with an over 2.5/3 with an over 3. How do you know you got the best line

which is better over 2.5 +119
Over 2.5/3 at +160?

**Wayfarer** · 08-09-09, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

Dude,

you really need to study some more if you can't compare a line at Over 2.5 with an over 2.5/3 with an over 3. How do you know you got the best line

which is better over 2.5 +119
Over 2.5/3 at +160?

Those lines are basically the same give or take a few cents.

I can tell if one is better or worse, I just want an exact number to quantify an edge for determining an appropriate kelly wager.

**SSLP** · 08-09-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

Dude,

you really need to study some more if you can't compare a line at Over 2.5 with an over 2.5/3 with an over 3. How do you know you got the best line

Originally posted by Wayfarer

which is better over 2.5 +119
Over 2.5/3 at +160?

Those lines are basically the same give or take a few cents.

I can tell if one is better or worse, I just want an exact number to quantify an edge for determining an appropriate kelly wager.

No you are wrong , a 41 cent margin is HUGE in any form of betting , ASIAN handicapping is great for soccer of course the line is gonna move on your favor when you take the early number specially a fav this is a known fact look at real madrid opened at roughly -275 now its at -376 the line will move when people start dumping cash on the fav .

If you dont know the value of a goal or a 41 cent margin.. you need more to re think your gambling stance

**Wayfarer** · 08-09-09, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by SSLP

No you are wrong , a 41 cent margin is HUGE in any form of betting , ASIAN handicapping is great for soccer of course the line is gonna move on your favor when you take the early number specially a fav this is a known fact look at real madrid opened at roughly -275 now its at -376 the line will move when people start dumping cash on the fav .

If you dont know the value of a goal or a 41 cent margin.. you need more to re think your gambling stance

Thank you and I will.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-10-09, 04:02 AM

Well you are looking at two different outcomes to an event.

Budgelisa vs. Shittake goes over 2.5

and

Bund v Shit goes over 3.

So just take the 3, cuz You'll get +200 at least, and if it goes 2-1, you'll push.

Hold on... Soccer totals, on avg are a bell curve. 50% they go under 2.5, or 1, or 2 total. 50% goes 3 or 4 or 5+, about 33% 3 and 17% 4 or more.

So 50% of the time you lose that over 2.5 or over 3 bet.

33% you'd push on the ov3... .33(push or x) + .17(money line over 3) is greater than or equal to .33(money line over 2.5) + .17(money line over 2.5)

Simplified, you are asking an inequality question:
Which is more? .66(x) + .33(x(ml ov3) <?> (xmlov2.5)
where x is your amount bet and ml is the european conversion value for you're money line, for ov 2.5 and over 3.

Keep in mind you'll lose this bet 50% based on natural odds.

Of course in a real sportsbook, you'll never see an over 3, so its a moot point.

**SSLP** · 08-10-09, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

Well you are looking at two different outcomes to an event.

Budgelisa vs. Shittake goes over 2.5

and

Bund v Shit goes over 3.

So just take the 3, cuz You'll get +200 at least, and if it goes 2-1, you'll push.

Hold on... Soccer totals, on avg are a bell curve. 50% they go under 2.5, or 1, or 2 total. 50% goes 3 or 4 or 5+, about 33% 3 and 17% 4 or more.

So 50% of the time you lose that over 2.5 or over 3 bet.

33% you'd push on the ov3... .33(push or x) + .17(money line over 3) is greater than or equal to .33(money line over 2.5) + .17(money line over 2.5)

Simplified, you are asking an inequality question:
Which is more? .66(x) + .33(x(ml ov3) <?> (xmlov2.5)
where x is your amount bet and ml is the european conversion value for you're money line, for ov 2.5 and over 3.

Keep in mind you'll lose this bet 50% based on natural odds.

Of course in a real sportsbook, you'll never see an over 3, so its a moot point.

G CUBE solid post .

Most asian handicaps involving high scoring teams are over 2.5 , 3 .
Thats were you made your mistake.

I am not a math wiz but I do know soccer betting , because i have watched it for 28 years , played in a pro level and have certain info .

All i have to say to people is this , if you dont know a sport despite all this formulas you will lose

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-10-09, 01:01 PM

Oh definitely SSLP. Some guys just walk in, throw down $1000 on a side and win, without doing any research. Just out of experience.

I don't really mess with soccer. Minimum bets, just for fun, if I'm waiting for a 4 oclock or 7 oclock game.

But yeah, so you agree IF its over 2.5, 66% go to 3, and 33% go 4 goals or more???

I thought some soccer expert would bash this stat I pulled out of the back.

But I'd say the formula is: about 66% (amount bet) or a push +33% (amount bet x money line over 3 calculated by European conversion) vs. 100% x amount bet x money line over 2.5 calculated by European conversion.

Or .66(x) + .34(xmlov3) >?< (xmlov2.5)

I say if you have the skills or the sight, you can handicap anything (incl. sports matchups you know nothing about), just by reading lines and letters, until you get banned. So I guess we disagree, haha.

**SSLP** · 08-10-09, 03:20 PM

g Cube ,

I do agree with this it may not be on the exact number but I agree I would say like 38% go over 3 .

usually games end up 3 -0 , 2 -1 , 2-2 , 3-1

I like your stats and i agree with your formula , like i said i am not a math wiz but i am basing myself on my personal betting and other soccer cappers

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-10-09, 08:57 PM

I may be a math teacher, haha.

yeah, basically just substitute whatever % you have on 3 or over 3,

and plug it in. It can be a generic percent, or the percent you feel is the most appropriate.

So if you like, go with .62(X) + .38(Xmlov3) >?< Xmlov2.5, cuz 2.5 can never push of course.

Example..

Line, well I mean where do you get two different lines again?

I've never seen that, but for example.

Bund/Shit over 2.5 is +110 or 2.1 euro payout conversion.

Bund/Shit over 3 is +170 or 2.7 euro payout conversion.

If you give a 38% chance it goes over 3, like 4 or more.

You'd get X2.1 or 2.1X on your over 2.5 line and...
You'd get .62X + .38X2.7 on your over 3 line.

Solving the inequality would = 2.1X >?< .62X + 1.026X
or 2.1X >?< 1.6446X

Meaning the over 2.5 would be the much better line.

If you bet $100, you would win $210 betting over 2.5 and $164.46 betting over 3.

But if the line is different, or you predict the odds of hitting 3 exactly is different, it changes. Sure in an Asian game, Sony vs. Panasonic or whatever, I've seen them go 5-4, so just take the over 3, even if the line is worse from the G-Cube Formula.

But lets talk further. I was thinking of betting more soccer totals. If you have good picks. My book always lays 2.5, and I could kill it if you had some blowouts to report.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 08-11-09, 01:39 AM

Just a note, i was looking at a bunch of random soccer scores from all over the world.

And 55% at least are going over 2.5.

Out of those, at least 50%, or at least even 60% seem to be way up there, 4 or more runs.

So, take over 3! I am gonna go bet some over 2.5's

soccer betting sounds cool, because you can bet in the morning and leave during the day.

**skrtelfan** · 11-12-09, 10:19 PM

Very high soccer totals are common when a big club plays a minnow, or a big country plays a minnow, and even in the Spanish league, totals of 3.5 are pretty common when Barcelona or Real Madrid are involved.