How does Middling work

[SBR Drew]

We can use a practical example to understand how middling works. Consider a basketball game. Bookmaker A is quoting a game total of 224.5 and bookmaker B’s total is 220.5. To generate a middle, a bettor would bet ‘under 224.5’ at bookmaker A and ‘over 220.5’ at bookmaker B. A middle is created for totals of 221, 222, 223 and 224. If the total lands on any of these numbers, the bettor will win both bets. Notice that it’s impossible for the bettor to lose both bets. The worst case is losing one, and winning the other.

A middle can be generated on any line bet, be it a Handicap or Total. Determining if a potential middle is worth betting involves calculating the cost and estimating the chance of landing in the middle. Continuing the example above, assume that the odds offered on ‘under 224.5’ and ‘over 220.5’ are both -110 and a $100 bet is placed on each. Let’s consider the profit and loss for different game totals.

For the totals 221, 222, 223 and 224, the bettor will win both bets for a profit of $180 (+$90 from each bet). For all other totals, they will win one (+$90) and lose one (-$100) for a loss of -$10. When will betting this middle be a profitable strategy?

To answer this question let’s consider how often this middle would need to land for the bettor to break even. If the middle lands in the first game, the $180 profit could sustain the next 18 games of losses. Therefore, the break-even number of games is 19. So long as this middle lands in more than one in 19 games (5.3%), the strategy has positive expected value.

[KVB]

Hey Drew, KVB here.

As you may know, I bet with different strategies and seperate them into Funds to keep the tracking true. Something anyone who is using different criteria to make all their bets should do. That includes separating Spread and Totals tracking.

Sometimes I find myself on opposing sides in different Funds and yesterday I had Lousivile -268 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh +6 (-105) for NCAAB. They played each other and Louisville won by 5.

Was that a middle?

[SBR Drew]

Hey Drew, KVB here.

As you may know, I bet with different strategies and seperate them into Funds to keep the tracking true. Something anyone who is using different criteria to make all their bets should do. That includes separating Spread and Totals tracking.

Sometimes I find myself on opposing sides in different Funds and yesterday I had Lousivile -268 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh +6 (-105) for NCAAB. They played each other and Louisville won by 5.

Was that a middle?

Yes that would be a middle. A hybrid if you will. But taking the points and betting the ml on the same game with a margin to win is a middle.

And you won as Lville won in OT by the score of 73-68. Well done KVB!

[KVB]

Was in that same situation with Fresno State and SDSU at the end of the night. It was around the spread for most of the game, then the favorite covered.

One thing is for sure, you will lose many attempts to hit a middle, you can't win them all. But as you pointed above, you don't need to win very many.

[DISTROYA]

thats a huge middle to have 4 points on a total. They are at most 1.5 points off usually no?
I often see a few lines on CBB busy days (Wed-Sat) where 1st half totals are off between 2 books by a point or so
(i,e, one book has 72, one has 73.) not very much room for middle, has to hit one of the two numbers for instance. But the juice carves you out good, is this profitable?

[SBR Drew]

It can be ...key is to find out injury information ahead of the public, or know what you like before the lines open. If you can make your own numbers it really helps..but this is not easy to do.

Also if you get the best of the number early on maybe the middle is not the right move. Maybe just let it ride as the advantage is yours now.

Lastly check out 2nd Half lines...these can be valuable when looking for a middle.

[Ardy]

KVB: "I bet with different strategies and seperate them into Funds to keep the tracking true. Something anyone who is using different criteria to make all their bets should do. That includes separating Spread and Totals tracking."
Yes, what you said.
It never ceases to amaze me how most bettors don't keep database logs and track their play.
While 'capping, they'll look at how a team does in certain situations, past performances, hm or rd, dog or fav, etc, but have no idea how they themselves do. For action/fun players that's okay I guess, but if you're serious about making a profit think of it like this - would you operate a business without keeping books? No, of course not. Same thing here. Track your play. Look for weaknesses and strengths, and adjust your play accordingly.

Exceptions to every rule, but in day to day operations, in the example 220' or 224', one of the two will most likely be closer to the common number found at most books. Let's say most are at 223' to 224' range.
The bookmaker at the house with the outlier, 220', will not liklely remain a bookmaker for long, if he is not better at his job. With a common number around 223', runners will buy the over at 222 or 223, no need to give away the extra point or two by offering 220' (yes, houses do move on air.)
This is why most houses don't have bookmakers in Vegas anymore - too open to mistakes (or cheats.)
Centralized hubs control the line movement for the majority of properties these days.
And there are even less true oddsmakers (guys that actually make a number on an event) - most just copy what comes up on their screens and start from there.

I know a few guys who make their money on middles during basketball season (only occasionally taking sides); it's more difficult for football.

Not pining for the old days, but it was a lot more fun, and easier to make $, when there were more independent houses and numbers varied.

[KVB]

KVB: "I bet with different strategies and seperate them into Funds to keep the tracking true. Something anyone who is using different criteria to make all their bets should do. That includes separating Spread and Totals tracking."
Yes, what you said.
It never ceases to amaze me how most bettors don't track their play, AND look at their own stat history before making a bet. They'll look at how a team does in certain situations, hm or rd, dog or fav, but have no idea how they themsleves do. For action/fun players that's okay I guess, but if you're seriouos about making a profit think of it like this - would you operate a business without keeping books? No, of course not. Same thing here....

Absolutely.

I've said many times "track your bets and why you made them" as it's amazing what it can reveal.

And your right about the sportsbook conglomerates these days.

Good post Ardy, welcome to SBR.

[DISTROYA]

was also thinking taking +7's in nba or college ball one side, and the fave money line the other side (like -300)
middle-you win 2 units
fave coveres=you break even minus +7 juice
dog wins lose 2 units.
Shouldnt this be a break even proposition or close?
Can someone tell me probability game falls between 1 and 7 points, for instance?

[TommieGunshot]

Consider a basketball game. Bookmaker A is quoting a game total of 224.5 and bookmaker B’s total is 220.5. To generate a middle, a bettor would bet ‘under 224.5’ at bookmaker A and ‘over 220.5’ at bookmaker B.

Important to remember, it is very rare both of these bets have an equal probability of winning. If the chance of either of them is under 52.4%, betting only one is better than betting both sides. That is usually true with typical middles. I very rarely see four point middles when I check multiple books, seems like maybe once per year. One to two point middles happen everyday, and the chance of landing on the number is usually less than one in 19.

How about odds that aren't on the half point? Anyone ever check numbers on that? For an example, 55 and 56 on a 1q NBA total, or 107.5 and 109 on a 1h?

[Sawyer]

I like middles a lot. Winning a middle bet gives you an orgasmic feeling.

When betting middles, my rule is, %1 loss is good (-102 -102 or -104 +100) for each 1 point difference in spread (basketball) and 2 points for total. Since 1 point matters more in spread then total.

Let's say we have a range between 220,5 and 224,5. It's 4. So -%2 is okay for me which is equal to -105 and -103 odds. If I got Miami +3½ and Dallas +6½ (Basketball), I would bet any middle up to -%3.

By the way, I don't suggest you to bet middles straight with -110 odds. Try to catch dropping odds. This is really when you catch the value. Other way, you will win 1 middle and lose 15 bets and the juice will drain away your profits..

[littlekona]

this is more a live or half strategy and works great for that. The initial example for pre game by OP is very hard to imagine and or very very rare case

[BigdaddyQH]

I only play football, and only middle football games. I rarely middle totals. Sides are by far the easiest to middle. middling is part of the strategy of early wagering. When the lines come out in June for the College "Games of the year" and the NFL schedule for weeks 1-16, you can make big money IF you have the ability to wager early and do not need your funds for several weeks or months. If you are good at what you do (the secret to any success) you can make enough money to cover your entire season. Here are some popular middles that hit in 2019:

Iowa opens early as a PK at Iowa State. The closing line is Iowa -2. Iowa wins 18-17. Iowa State +2 and Iowa PK wins.
Texas opens up early -10 vs. Oklahoma State. The closing line is -5 1/2. Texas wins 36-30. Okie State + 10 and Texas -5 1/2 wins.
Michigan opens early at -4 1/2 @ Penn state. The Closing line is +9. Penn State wins 28-21. Penn State + 4 1/2 and Michigan +9 wins.

There are many lines that have huge movements from the "Game of the year" lines to the closing lines. Here are a few:

Oklahoma opens at -11 and closes at -23 @ UCLA..........Washington opens at a pk and closes at -16 1/2 @ Stanford.
Michigan opens at -5 and closes at +3 @ Wisconsin........Texas opens at -7 and closes at +6 @ Baylor.
Florida opens at -7 and closes at +3 vs Auburn..............Army opens at -13 and closes at +10 vs Navy.

Every year there are huge line swings like this. If you hit 3 middles, you have 57 other middle wagers that you can lose and still break even. I never make that many early wagers to play middles. The strategy is to find teams that you think are over-rated and then find lines that are way out of line. Last season, Michigan was one of my early line "Fade" teams and they went 2-5 against the early line. Kind of hard to believe that they were -3 1/2 on the early line against Ohio State.

[mjsuax13]

I only play football, and only middle football games. I rarely middle totals. Sides are by far the easiest to middle. middling is part of the strategy of early wagering. When the lines come out in June for the College "Games of the year" and the NFL schedule for weeks 1-16, you can make big money IF you have the ability to wager early and do not need your funds for several weeks or months. If you are good at what you do (the secret to any success) you can make enough money to cover your entire season. Here are some popular middles that hit in 2019:

Iowa opens early as a PK at Iowa State. The closing line is Iowa -2. Iowa wins 18-17. Iowa State +2 and Iowa PK wins.
Texas opens up early -10 vs. Oklahoma State. The closing line is -5 1/2. Texas wins 36-30. Okie State + 10 and Texas -5 1/2 wins.
Michigan opens early at -4 1/2 @ Penn state. The Closing line is +9. Penn State wins 28-21. Penn State + 4 1/2 and Michigan +9 wins.

There are many lines that have huge movements from the "Game of the year" lines to the closing lines. Here are a few:

Oklahoma opens at -11 and closes at -23 @ UCLA..........Washington opens at a pk and closes at -16 1/2 @ Stanford.
Michigan opens at -5 and closes at +3 @ Wisconsin........Texas opens at -7 and closes at +6 @ Baylor.
Florida opens at -7 and closes at +3 vs Auburn..............Army opens at -13 and closes at +10 vs Navy.

Every year there are huge line swings like this. If you hit 3 middles, you have 57 other middle wagers that you can lose and still break even. I never make that many early wagers to play middles. The strategy is to find teams that you think are over-rated and then find lines that are way out of line. Last season, Michigan was one of my early line "Fade" teams and they went 2-5 against the early line. Kind of hard to believe that they were -3 1/2 on the early line against Ohio State.

Why do you lose so much?