Mlb betting system

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by AsianmanSports

Thats not true, just because the Line moved against a Team doesnt mean you cant find value near close.

this of course would be based on what you think is value

I have one method, the same as pinnacle to determine value
example of value to me

bet at -120 closes at -150 that is value

bet at -120 closes at +100 that is NOT value
bet at -120 closes at -120 that is not value to me

what do you consider value?

**AsianmanSports** · 04-14-19, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

bet at -120 closes at +100 that is NOT value
bet at -120 closes at -120 that is not value to me

My reply was directed at the highlighted part in what I quoted.

A -120 bet that closed at +100 has no value but a bet that opened at -120 and closes at +100 can still have had value if u bet near closing at +100.

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 09:42 AM

for me and only me, there is negative value in a bet that i bet at +100 and closes at +100, of course that is just for me, most people believe they can out pick the consensus of bettors across the entire world and their models. there is also some people who think they can pick their spots in roulette. some people think they can use their eyes and look at a lineup and tell you which mlb games to bet by just looking. some people think pinnacle is paying 4 executives over 1 million a year plus bonuses because they put up shitty lines that you can pick through and get winners BUT FOR ME and just ME, I need the line to be good, I bet -120 I need -140 closing or I consider that a shitknuckle ticket!

**AsianmanSports** · 04-14-19, 09:54 AM

Good for you

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by AsianmanSports

Good for you

how about you, what do you think is a shitknuckel ticket?

**AsianmanSports** · 04-14-19, 09:59 AM

Either you cant comprehend what you are reading or you are trolling, i have clearly not said a line that has moved against your bet is a good bet.

**clockwise1965** · 04-14-19, 10:08 AM

In 30 plus years of sports betting, I have yet to see a system produce winning results. Lets see what your data shows over the next month.

Thanks

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by vicshap

Often happens. Someone starts a new thread, and the first day is bad. No biggie.

No worries, 2016 started me off 2-6 and make a quick turnaround within a week... let's get it!

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:22 AM

I am not very good with math but how many losses can a +146%ROI system take?

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by AsianmanSports

Either you cant comprehend what you are reading or you are trolling, i have clearly not said a line that has moved against your bet is a good bet.

I never said you said a line that moved against you is a good bet. I stated that if a line is +100 and closes at +100 that is a -EV bet, you said or implied that it might have value. I replied that depends on who you ask and I stated for ME that is a negative value bet. I also think that roulette red is negative value on every spin.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 10:32 AM

april 14, 2019

mil (+129)
sd (+117)
cin (+106)
atl (+131)

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:34 AM

dude where are you using lines from? almost everyone of those games the line is going the other way or already has

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

dude where are you using lines from? almost everyone of those games the line is going the other way or already has

I'm taking these lines straight from my Fans Unite Bet Tracking site so they correlate - if you're getting a different line by a few cents, it's fine. Just as long as they're +ML, you're good.

Just a moment...

https://social.fansunite.com/profile/pricetopher

**nash13** · 04-14-19, 10:39 AM

milwaukee has +131 on pinnacle
San diego has +121
cin +106
atl +133
they are accurate.

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:41 AM

I was not doubting the accuracy I was stating they are already taking a shit!

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:42 AM

Originally posted by Pricetopher

I'm taking these lines straight from my Fans Unite Bet Tracking site so they correlate - if you're getting a different line by a few cents, it's fine. Just as long as they're +ML, you're good.

https://social.fansunite.com/profile/pricetopher

and there is the tout hook, it only took a few posts!!!

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 10:43 AM

I was wondering what statement or question would get the tout hook!

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Believe_EMT

in the spirit of a civil of discourse, just a few questions or observations

the opening line is by far the least efficient. do you agree?

more information comes in as the line matures, increasing the accuracy of the line. do you agree?

i believe those first two points which leaves me confounded as to how you view a line move 20 cents against your play a bonus? you are clearly on the wrong side of that play. (wrong side meaning the closing line is efficient, but when we say it is efficient it should be understood by bettor that it is in the context of this same contest being played an infinite number of times. given this, if you accepted +116 when it closed at +136 an infinite number of times, your losses would be exponentially larger than a guy dropping a play on the mets just before close. he would lose as well, not just as much as you.)

this does bring back memories of when i used to follow this system and post it across the street. only looked to win 20 units a year and then shut it down. did not end well.

This uses all dogs, so if it were a game that the system shows as a play given the criteria at (+113) and then having the public plays move it to (+135) it would just be an added bonus given the way it's set up. Do I recommend it, no... I always try to take the line as it comes out given this particular model.

As far as letting the lines mature in other sports, sure... I can see it and definitely do in many instances. But for this, it's just not looked at as the same since it uses math > betting expertise.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I was not doubting the accuracy I was stating they are already taking a shit!

I was letting you argue with other people and responding to posts. About to go back to ignoring you again though - I just don't understand what your pessimistic attitude towards everything is for... here especially. There's enough of that going around. If you think my plays are garbage and my system is a joke, then it's a good thing they're free AND you don't have to follow any of them.

**AsianmanSports** · 04-14-19, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I never said you said a line that moved against you is a good bet. I stated that if a line is +100 and closes at +100 that is a -EV bet, you said or implied that it might have value. I replied that depends on who you ask and I stated for ME that is a negative value bet. I also think that roulette red is negative value on every spin.

My point is the market isnt always efficient even near or at close. So you cant categorically state that someone who took the Mets at 136 1 Minute before close is making a loosing play. There are spots where the late late Market can offer value after its moved alot ( most often on the side it moved against ) .

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 11:11 AM

I first off do not believe from the statements you have made in this thread that you know shit about math or betting.

second off I dont care if dumbasses are willing to give you all their grandmas ss check for your tout service

3rd off I mean wtf, are you serious really I mean really, you have said a bunch of BS and made outlandish statements, I mean what the holy fuk, go to tout school, you got to make crazy numbers up and say crazy vague shit but you cant go that far over the top dude, its got to be believable to even the idiots!

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 11:12 AM

I should fricken know, I am a complete idiot and I still dont believe your garbage!

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 11:16 AM

I'm not a tout. I'll gladly give these picks out all season long for free which I have done being sports handicapper for the past 8 years. Lastly, as I've done with many people before and will continue to do - I'll offer you a chance at going against me H2H for whatever amount you'd like as well as bragging rights... or more importantly, whatever makes you actually shut up for a day.

I'll look for that response, otherwise, have a good one.

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 11:19 AM

no worries at all I will book every bet you want at a penny better than pinny price, all day long till the cows come home.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

no worries at all I will book every bet you want at a penny better than pinny price, all day long till the cows come home.

You definitely don't want to do that... but if you do, and you're serious, then tell me where I start.

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 11:31 AM

I think sbr has a policy against booking anything other than betpoints but we can do betpoints, if SBR does not mind we can do btc, you set a unit price and we roll

**AsianmanSports** · 04-14-19, 11:38 AM

Why do I have to read through half a page of insults and dick measuring half the time in the hope to read anything of value? There are other subforums for that.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by asianmansports

why do i have to read through half a page of insults and dick measuring half the time in the hope to read anything of value? There are other subforums for that.

amen!

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I think sbr has a policy against booking anything other than betpoints but we can do betpoints, if SBR does not mind we can do btc, you set a unit price and we roll

If you're serious... and only if you're serious, PM me.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 12:00 PM

**crickets**

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 12:02 PM

what crickets, what do you want to hear?

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by AsianmanSports

Why do I have to read through half a page of insults and dick measuring half the time in the hope to read anything of value? There are other subforums for that.

dude if you thought this thread had any value after the 1st post from the OP, you need to start all over with your betting thinking

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 12:04 PM

I saw you PM'd me the second I posted that - it won't allow me to respond because I don't have enough posts to send a PM apparently. So, start another thread or shoot me a message to 59Theorem@gmail.com

**danshan11** · 04-14-19, 12:07 PM

brother you are already probably on the pending ban list with the tout link, if you want to bet betpoints, we can do 12 betpoints per day cause that is what you earn, split it up between the games you pick and we will settle here on this thread every am for previous days games. you can post any bet you want before the game start time cannot modify a post and every bet is 1 unit or BP.

**Pricetopher** · 04-14-19, 12:13 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

brother you are already probably on the pending ban list with the tout link, if you want to bet betpoints, we can do 12 betpoints per day cause that is what you earn, split it up between the games you pick and we will settle here on this thread every am for previous days games. you can post any bet you want before the game start time cannot modify a post and every bet is 1 unit or BP.

That wasn't a tout link, it was a link to track the plays I am making here. And it looks like you were REAL quick to back out of a serious situation because you were never seriously about legitimately taking my plays.

If you are, then please email me at 59Theorem@gmail.com - PLEASE?! I WANT THIS!