Does trend betting work?

[danshan11]

you guys should create a trending thread and track your results!

[tsty]

not sure why certain people are highly dismissive.

there are billionaires out there that largely made it off trend-investing in the stock and commodity markets. and that market in theory would be more efficient than betting market (far lower transaction costs in financial markets though.. EDIT: and much much greater opportunities to bet mega-$$$$ in financial markets)

of course, there are major structural differences between betting and financial markets too.......... i think "maybe" trends are overpriced in betting markets. whereas they are (or were historically) underpriced (under-invested might be better expression) in financial markets.

i think to test that the trends should be very simple, like ATS streaks or some cumulative "points above/below ATS" figure.. saying justin verlander is high ROI in night games away from houston. i know how to test that historically but i don't know how to test it in any real economic sense.

Ok who?

Name one please

[Believe_EMT]

The Flames are now 1-33 in Anaheim. Now that was not difficult, was it? Shame on you if you did not take advantage of this. This is how the 5% of gamblers who are successful on a regular basis make their money. Take advantage of an obvious situation backed by a solid trend.

how does a once a season play qualify as a trend play?

or are you clearly stating you will be backing the Ducks every time they host the Flames?

[AsianmanSports]

Im not entirely dismissive but i think you have to do better then to arbitrarily choose your variables. What if short term Trend is 3-10 and a long term Trend 22-23?

Ive asked earlier, how do you define a Trend? When does it start and when is it over? Is a 23-3 Trend suddenly not good when its its 26-10 a few weeks later? Is the Trend reversed or is still in effect? Just looking for Trends at random and choosing timeframes arbitrarily doesnt make sense imo.

If people wanna bet them and have success with it , thats great then.

[danshan11]

Im not entirely dismissive but i think you have to do better then to arbitrarily choose your variables. What if short term Trend is 3-10 and a long term Trend 22-23?

Ive asked earlier, how do you define a Trend? When does it start and when is it over? Is a 23-3 Trend suddenly not good when its its 26-10 a few weeks later? Is the Trend reversed or is still in effect? Just looking for Trends at random and choosing timeframes arbitrarily doesnt make sense imo.

If people wanna bet them and have success with it , thats great then.

they dont the line is too efficient in these huge markets

[gojetsgomoxies]

Ok who?

Name one please

John Henry

[danshan11]

John Henry

good one that question was retarded!

[Getch13]

Here's one for tonight Golden St. vs Lakers,

Looking at the last 15 games of the regular season in the last two years. Away teams favored by 10 or more are now 15-0 ATS. Always a chance Warriors take it easy and do enough just to win though.

BOL Getch

[danshan11]

12-19 (-0.26, 38.7%) 17-12-2 (4.15, 58.6%) avg line: 4.4 20-10-1 (2.39, 66.7%) avg total: 234.3

here is a good one take the Bucks! LMAO

[danshan11]

and thursday never goes over, get on those unders LOL

71-32 (5.06, 68.9%) 56-46-1 (1.29, 54.9%) avg line: -3.8 48-55-0 (0.19, 46.6%) avg total: 223.0

[TommieGunshot]

not sure why certain people are highly dismissive.
there are billionaires out there that largely made it off trend-investing in the stock and commodity markets. and that market in theory would be more efficient than betting market (far lower transaction costs in financial markets though.. EDIT: and much much greater opportunities to bet mega-$$$$ in financial markets)

If true (which seems doubtful) this would be a perfect reason why we should be dismissive. This shows that when trend betting works in the market, people become rich. Yet no one is getting rich off trends in the sports betting market, therefore it probably doesn't work.

[tsty]

John Henry

A long term loser?

Great example lol

Nobody uses trends anymore

All luck and hindsight bias

[danshan11]

he might be a long term loser not really sure by your standards, last year he won the world series and he is sitting on a cool couple billion! Oh I forgot his wife is drop dead gorgeous and an MIT grad herself!

[EVPlus]

On one hand it shouldn't work because that would be too easy. I assume that trends are simply calculated into the line. On the other hand, some trends look really strong and there are no mixed signals, so how could you lose money following them? Let's use NBA for example. Bucks are 17-3 ATS after coming off a loss. Would you have bet against Bucks yesterday knowing that? They won by 10. Maybe the coach gives them a good pep talk after a loss or something. There must be some reason for that because winning 17/20 coinflips seems unlikely.

Let's examine some trends coming up today:

Game 1:
The Rockets are 22-43-5 OU (-5.66 ppg) since Jan 03, 2018 on the road
The Rockets are 1-10-1 OU (-10.33 ppg) since Mar 08, 2019 as a favorite
Houston Rockets vs Western (Under) 27-20-1
Sacramento Kings as Home (Under) 22-15-1

Game 2:
The Nuggets are 4-18 OU (-9.30 ppg) since Feb 08, 2019
The Nuggets are 5-14 OU (-5.03 ppg) since Jan 08, 2019 on the road
Denver Nuggets vs Western (Under) 28-18-0
The Warriors are 4-13-1 OU (-3.33 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019
The Warriors are 1-7 OU (-3.44 ppg) since Feb 23, 2019 as a home favorite


Knowing that, will anyone here bet on the overs? Good luck, but I'll have a punt on the unders. Is there any value though? I have no idea, I've never done trend betting. But surely there must be at least 1% edge, the plays are so obvious.

You're chasing windmills with this one.

Trends represent just one piece of a puzzle. Anyone who overly relies on it is doomed to fail.

If you plan on winning long term - and join that elite club - your predictive model will need to be more sophisticated.

I know this isn't the answer you're looking for. If you take it to heart, you'll save your bankroll and your sanity.

[nash13]

Rather than trends look at metrics for changing in overall sports specific insights.
As a skilled observer you can easily see that few thing changed within the NBA. Let's look at average points scored per team in the span of the whole season for the last 23 years.

99.50	season = 1995
96.90	season = 1996
95.57	season = 1997
91.58	season = 1998
97.47	season = 1999
94.81	season = 2000
95.48	season = 2001
95.16	season = 2002
93.05	season = 2003
97.19	season = 2004
97.06	season = 2005
98.47	season = 2006
99.59	season = 2007
99.74	season = 2008
100.26	season = 2009
99.21	season = 2010
95.99	season = 2011
97.95	season = 2012
100.91	season = 2013
100.05	season = 2014
102.49	season = 2015
105.62	season = 2016
106.22	season = 2017
111.08	season = 2018

Before 2014 the game and it's mechanics and flow was very consistent. With the success of the Warriors and transition from classical big men into facilitators and shooters a drastic increase in pace and scoring. In addition to that this year the change in shot clock reset after offensive rebounds led to another increase on offensive production. Together with the officiating rules which favor the offensive player we now live an age where the offensive output in higher than ever.
So if you can recognize to what that leads, you can have a lot of success.
I use these kind of metrics to develop my own mechanics and it works very well since 2014.
The record for the last 5 seasons has been: 3353-2792.

[nash13]

All I want to point out: it is not easy to analyze an evolving and ever changing sport only on trends or recent activities. If you can recognize a bigger picture AND how the market (other bettors) and the bookies react to that, you might be a winner. In some aspects i can tell that the bookies are not so fast in adaptation as everyone likes to think.

[KVB]

Good points nash, you if you understand where the market is and where it came from, you can better predict where it will go. The same goes for teams.

Those baselines can be important and seeing them shift crucial, especially when comparing teams, not to each other, but to the league as a whole.

[tsty]

he might be a long term loser not really sure by your standards, last year he won the world series and he is sitting on a cool couple billion! Oh I forgot his wife is drop dead gorgeous and an MIT grad herself!

ok so what?

He made money by luck and capitalised it in other areas

However this is about trend betting...which doesn't work lol

I'm still waiting on you or him to show me anyone currently trading with that exact method

please I am waiting

[danshan11]

U think i think trend betting works? Dude i was making fun of him, did you see the trends i posted.

[KVB]

Don't forget the post of the thread...

yeah dude play the shit out of them, they are free money use full kelly based on the win% of the trend!

[Gaze73]

Here's one for tonight Golden St. vs Lakers,

Looking at the last 15 games of the regular season in the last two years. Away teams favored by 10 or more are now 15-0 ATS. Always a chance Warriors take it easy and do enough just to win though.

BOL Getch

16-0! Apparently double digit home dogs are dogshit.

[nash13]

Another hint for you:
Here from the NHL.

29.60	2.92	14.16	season = 2006
29.13	2.78	13.90	season = 2007
30.26	2.91	13.90	season = 2008
30.36	2.85	12.76	season = 2009
30.52	2.80	12.35	season = 2010
29.73	2.71	11.31	season = 2011
29.43	2.70	11.61	season = 2012
30.05	2.75	11.00	season = 2013
29.94	2.72	9.71	season = 2014
29.74	2.71	9.78	season = 2015
30.29	2.75	9.33	season = 2016
31.86	2.97	8.75	season = 2017
31.42	3.01	8.22	season = 2018

These numbers indicate that ehre is a shift in game mechanics.
The number in shots on goal increase, while goal averages are higher than ever. In addition to that penalty minutes are decreasing ever since.
Is the game officiated differently? Do tactics change? How does this impact the bettor/market?
These are trends.

[nash13]

The NHL has a very unique difference in totals betting.
The lines are not that simple and simple at the same time.
That sounds confusing right? Yes and no
Because the range of totals offered vary from
5.0 over 5.5, 6.0, 6.5 up to 7.0
So there is not much the bookies can do in moving the lines.
They move odds. If you use these patterns correctly you may find things to rely on.

[nash13]

Let's go to the NFL.

A(points@1)	A(passing yards@1)	A(rushing yards@1)	query	pass vs. rush
20.61	210.83	115.32	season = 1989	64.64%
20.12	194.67	113.90	season = 1990	63.09%
18.99	199.07	107.72	season = 1991	64.89%
18.73	187.63	110.51	season = 1992	62.93%
18.70	200.66	110.03	season = 1993	64.59%
20.26	213.52	104.26	season = 1994	67.19%
21.49	220.81	108.04	season = 1995	67.15%
20.43	207.43	108.94	season = 1996	65.57%
20.74	201.76	113.00	season = 1997	64.10%
21.28	204.89	112.80	season = 1998	64.49%
20.82	212.62	106.41	season = 1999	66.65%
20.67	206.81	112.61	season = 2000	64.75%
20.27	205.59	111.60	season = 2001	64.82%
21.83	213.65	115.32	season = 2002	64.95%
20.90	201.82	117.98	season = 2003	63.11%
21.57	211.63	116.78	season = 2004	64.44%
20.55	203.33	112.22	season = 2005	64.44%
20.76	205.01	117.60	season = 2006	63.55%
21.69	214.71	110.29	season = 2007	66.06%
22.01	211.96	114.89	season = 2008	64.85%
21.58	219.16	116.62	season = 2009	65.27%
22.16	221.54	114.00	season = 2010	66.02%
22.25	231.08	117.12	season = 2011	66.36%
22.89	232.44	116.90	season = 2012	66.54%
23.43	235.73	113.34	season = 2013	67.53%
22.63	236.85	111.09	season = 2014	68.07%
22.73	242.81	108.48	season = 2015	69.12%
22.87	242.38	108.49	season = 2016	69.08%
21.81	226.49	109.54	season = 2017	67.40%
23.28	237.94	114.11	season = 2018	67.59%

Since 2007 the ratio between passing yards and rushing yards has increased.
All three examples led me to two non specific betting related points or better say trends.
NBA, NFL and NHL or all professional sports organizations are companies and they care about two main things:
Ratings and Revenue. They increase them by favoring offense, scoring, points etc.
People like to watch James Harden go for 50 every night rather than applauding the Spurs having a superb defensive scheme. So if you can use that psychological factor that spectators use when they watch games, you can see or define how this will impact their betting psychology and connected to that the betting market.

[LT Profits]

The problem here is that these trends are fairly simple, and thus of the sort machine learning setups will spot easily - in many cases completely automatically. Thus, the market has already priced them in, and almost certainly done so more accurately than you can.


Sure, if you had a meaningful trend based on non-public data, and weighted it appropriately......

This is the best answer I have seen in this thread. Most trends are rubbish but the few that do work are based in more advanced analytics and not the easily accessible ones.

[zorba74]

The problem here is that these trends are fairly simple, and thus of the sort machine learning setups will spot easily - in many cases completely automatically. Thus, the market has already priced them in, and almost certainly done so more accurately than you can.
Sure, if you had a meaningful trend based on non-public data, and weighted it appropriately......

I agree w/ your premise (these are simple trends) and perhaps this is a semantic issue but isn't AI extremely adept at finding complex correlations in data?

As far as trends go:

1. Is it logical
2. Is it statistically significant
3. Is it already baked in the line

[zorba74]

there are billionaires out there that largely made it off trend-investing in the stock and commodity markets. and that market in theory would be more efficient than betting market (far lower transaction costs in financial markets though.. EDIT: and much much greater opportunities to bet mega-$$$$ in financial markets)

In Finance, Trend Following strategies anticipate forms of positive autocorrelation; one has nothing to do w/ the other.

[AsianmanSports]

There was a second division soccer League in Europe which wouldve made you rich if you had bet EVERY SINGLE draw ( assuming u were betting with a decent bankroll ) over multiple seasons. That has changed in recent years and no longer works.
The point is unless you know why its happening and why neither books nor pro bettors and syndicates have picked up on it etc you wont know when a trend is a trend and when the trend is over.
Of course I could be overthinking and missing out on tons of money because stumble upon these random trends by accident every week.
For example I have an assumption that home teams ( in soccer ) are super undervalued after getting a crushed on the road. I do a historical backtest and the results show me that they have been getting crushed instead.
Do I now completely reverse my assumption and bet the Roadteam just because its there? Would that be smart?

[nash13]

There was a second division soccer League in Europe which wouldve made you rich if you had bet EVERY SINGLE draw ( assuming u were betting with a decent bankroll ) over multiple seasons. That has changed in recent years and no longer works.
The point is unless you know why its happening and why neither books nor pro bettors and syndicates have picked up on it etc you wont know when a trend is a trend and when the trend is over.
Of course I could be overthinking and missing out on tons of money because stumble upon these random trends by accident every week.
For example I have an assumption that home teams ( in soccer ) are super undervalued after getting a crushed on the road. I do a historical backtest and the results show me that they have been getting crushed instead.
Do I now completely reverse my assumption and bet the Roadteam just because its there? Would that be smart?

I guess it was the Second French League. But Football changes a lot. Tactics, Players, Coachers etc. So you better are off watching it live and can see something developing from experience. CGMBet is a good software for backtracking soccer results. Has a huge database and costs very few.

[semibluff]

...For example I have an assumption that home teams ( in soccer ) are super undervalued after getting a crushed on the road. I do a historical backtest and the results show me that they have been getting crushed instead.
Do I now completely reverse my assumption and bet the Roadteam just because its there? Would that be smart?

I think it would be smart to realise games are priced up 7-10 days before kickoff and current prices, (prices in the 3 days before kickoff), are a reaction to results in between those 2 time periods. Sometimes there's no reaction and sometimes there's an over-reaction. I think it would be even smarter to recognize that the initial prices are often formulaic. The person pricing up the game may know very little about the teams involved and thus, even with a recent game causing an adjustment, the adjustment may not fully correct an erroneous line, (and could make it worse). @lonnie55's posts about African football would better demonstrate this. The best advice I can give you about football is to follow the teams and leagues you are betting on so you're aware of circumstances behind games that would cause prices to be in error or be correct whilst looking wrong to the untrained eye. For example, Newcastle are playing Crystal Palace in the Premier League this weekend. I make no prediction about the game. Should either team lose it shouldn't affect how they play in their following game. However, should either team win that winning team is extremely likely to tank their following game and possibly all their remaining games. That's a known factor that will be priced in. System betting that future game(s) would be a mistake.

[danshan11]

I think it would be smart to realise games are priced up 7-10 days before kickoff and current prices, (prices in the 3 days before kickoff), are a reaction to results in between those 2 time periods. Sometimes there's no reaction and sometimes there's an over-reaction. I think it would be even smarter to recognize that the initial prices are often formulaic. The person pricing up the game may know very little about the teams involved and thus, even with a recent game causing an adjustment, the adjustment may not fully correct an erroneous line, (and could make it worse). @lonnie55's posts about African football would better demonstrate this. The best advice I can give you about football is to follow the teams and leagues you are betting on so you're aware of circumstances behind games that would cause prices to be in error or be correct whilst looking wrong to the untrained eye. For example, Newcastle are playing Crystal Palace in the Premier League this weekend. I make no prediction about the game. Should either team lose it shouldn't affect how they play in their following game. However, should either team win that winning team is extremely likely to tank their following game and possibly all their remaining games. That's a known factor that will be priced in. System betting that future game(s) would be a mistake.

why would they tank the following games? what would be the motivation?

[Combato]

Hypothetical example = Lets say you discover a trend and the database you derive the trend from is very large, say 1000 games.

You find a trend that hits 600 winners for a 60% win rate on games lined at -110. The Z score also calculates that the trend is not due to randomness.

Would this now be a playable trend because of the sample size?

[Combato]

they dont the line is too efficient in these huge markets

Danshin - Question for you. How do you feel about using Z scores to determine if results from a trend ( or any other variable) are due to randomness or to cause and effect?
Next question - If your answer is "yes", how big of a Z score ( ie how large of sample size) would you consider to a playable trend ?

[KVB]

I don't believe Dan was going to accept any statistical test that betting would be profitable. He didn't like line, error, z scores, bankroll growth, and even clv comparisons (although he was warmer to that), there was nothing unless there were thousands of plays. And even when there were, there was always a doubt.

In that he was consistent.

[Believe_EMT]

trend betting work? no


marketing trend betting to less than savvy bettors? made marc lawrence a fukton of money