Simple scenario:
Assume you have a 2% edge on an even money bet, with a 3 cent line (-103/+100) 8 hours before close. When you make the bet, you anticipate the closing line will distribute across -109.3/106.3, and 114.7/-117.7, with equal probability for each of the 25 possible incremental closing lines in this range. This means that the median expected closing line is 102.7/-105.7, which is consistent with your 49/51 projected edge.
How much should you bet on the +100 line being offered 8 hours before close, as a percentage of your bankroll? Assume you can bet on either side at close, the total of all bets cannot exceed your bankroll, and you will not encounter any house limits.
Assume you have a 2% edge on an even money bet, with a 3 cent line (-103/+100) 8 hours before close. When you make the bet, you anticipate the closing line will distribute across -109.3/106.3, and 114.7/-117.7, with equal probability for each of the 25 possible incremental closing lines in this range. This means that the median expected closing line is 102.7/-105.7, which is consistent with your 49/51 projected edge.
How much should you bet on the +100 line being offered 8 hours before close, as a percentage of your bankroll? Assume you can bet on either side at close, the total of all bets cannot exceed your bankroll, and you will not encounter any house limits.