Fact of Life winners vs Losers

**dpark80** · 12-21-18, 01:05 PM

Yep, if I came up with a model to be able to make bets to overcome the vig and be a profitable gambler, I wouldn't be revealing it to anyone except my children/close relatives.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 12-21-18, 01:58 PM

An edge shared is an edge halved.

**danshan11** · 12-21-18, 06:19 PM

I really dont see how your profit goes away sharing? can someone explain it to me.

I know everythign aabout the bullyankers and tell twitter AFTER I bet and so what? how does it hurt me. I show some people my method of modeling games and people use it, I still place my bets and I dont see anyone betting enough to make me lose my line. 1962 when if you shared your info with your buddy at the same bookie sure, once he bets that can change your line but today day and age, I hardly think one guys good model blows out the market. I mean you can google and get what 1000000 model theorys or college projects in PDF. I dont think there is any really secret to modeling (yes some are better than others) and I still think it is very few even with a good model can get the action in and also can adjust the model when it needs to be. I have models and I literally am thinking daily how to tweak them. I add new sheets try different methods. My only goal is to get as close to the actual closing line as early as possible. My only goal is that get as close to the closing number as early as possible. Anyway if someone can explain how you lose something when you share that info, I really want to understand.

**pretentiousGuy** · 12-21-18, 06:20 PM

Don't scare off the losers, OP. They are required to maintain a healthy betting ecosystem.

And for the aspiring professional bettors out there. If you want to be the Phil Taylor of sports betting like me, you have to put in the time. There are no secrets, your dart throwing must be perfected through practice.

**totalsguy** · 12-22-18, 03:15 AM

You say "You hardly think one guys good model blow out the market"
Here is the proof that says otherwise

Here is a classic example with i gave out at the time of the original post 1148am et
The Final Score was 83 44 (127)
So I won the line closed at 128 as I pointed out it was as high as 131
If I gave out my method
vs just the pick to my 1 Friend

There is No Question in my mind
I would not have won (If he nailed at SBG which was the FIRST book putting up the line on CBB "ADDED-EXTRA GAME their Rotation Schedule # is identified by six digits vs 3 (#307567) and are put up latter than the other CBB at Vegas Insider and Don Best
just 1/2 of a point was the difference between wining and losing doesn't have to be a "Market Blowout"
just 1/2 point is the difference between wining and losing
copy & paste of the portion of my post PROVES THAT
Believe me when you share something that works you create competion

Let me ask you honestly if your panning for gold a hitting big nuggets a you yelling
"hey the Gold is over here"

And yes without a doubt this is a 24 hour world wide market where learned knowledge is the difference
between winning and losing

Example CBB 4pm pt # 307567 Alcorn st vs S.Florida today
the first Book to post a totals line
was SBG Global at 851pm last night at 126.5 -120 on the Over
at 344am et I got it at the 126.5 -120
Without disclosing my Method to my friend, and after I go in I sent it to my friend
and who knows who they sent it to
at 728am today it moved to 128 and now 1127am et its 131.5
If I gave my friend my method I would be buying totals at a worse price

**Alfa1234** · 12-22-18, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I really dont see how your profit goes away sharing? can someone explain it to me.

I know everythign aabout the bullyankers and tell twitter AFTER I bet and so what? how does it hurt me. I show some people my method of modeling games and people use it, I still place my bets and I dont see anyone betting enough to make me lose my line. 1962 when if you shared your info with your buddy at the same bookie sure, once he bets that can change your line but today day and age, I hardly think one guys good model blows out the market. I mean you can google and get what 1000000 model theorys or college projects in PDF. I dont think there is any really secret to modeling (yes some are better than others) and I still think it is very few even with a good model can get the action in and also can adjust the model when it needs to be. I have models and I literally am thinking daily how to tweak them. I add new sheets try different methods. My only goal is to get as close to the actual closing line as early as possible. My only goal is that get as close to the closing number as early as possible. Anyway if someone can explain how you lose something when you share that info, I really want to understand.

You share because you aren't profitable. If you were profitable and shared all your picks, 2 things could happen:

1. Very few would be able to get on because the instant you made a decent size bet (or some of your followers), the line would move. Books would catch on rather quickly and start limiting you because you were the first to make that bet all the time, they would want to stop you from making big bets at +EV.

2. Books would analyse your pattern and correct the mistake in the line they are making. The more people bet the incorrect line and the more profit they lose, the quicker they would make the correction.

**oilcountry99** · 12-22-18, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I really dont see how your profit goes away sharing? can someone explain it to me.

I know everythign aabout the bullyankers and tell twitter AFTER I bet and so what? how does it hurt me. I show some people my method of modeling games and people use it, I still place my bets and I dont see anyone betting enough to make me lose my line. 1962 when if you shared your info with your buddy at the same bookie sure, once he bets that can change your line but today day and age, I hardly think one guys good model blows out the market. I mean you can google and get what 1000000 model theorys or college projects in PDF. I dont think there is any really secret to modeling (yes some are better than others) and I still think it is very few even with a good model can get the action in and also can adjust the model when it needs to be. I have models and I literally am thinking daily how to tweak them. I add new sheets try different methods. My only goal is to get as close to the actual closing line as early as possible. My only goal is that get as close to the closing number as early as possible. Anyway if someone can explain how you lose something when you share that info, I really want to understand.

I agree with you on this. There are so many gamblers with so many theories and approaches to what wins. Well said danshan11

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

You share because you aren't profitable. If you were profitable and shared all your picks, 2 things could happen:

1. Very few would be able to get on because the instant you made a decent size bet (or some of your followers), the line would move. Books would catch on rather quickly and start limiting you because you were the first to make that bet all the time, they would want to stop you from making big bets at +EV.

2. Books would analyse your pattern and correct the mistake in the line they are making. The more people bet the incorrect line and the more profit they lose, the quicker they would make the correction.

Alfa you really do not have a frame of reference, you bet on outside the box middle school sports (no offense) . you obviously are betting super low stakes on these micro sports. you should try betting on a professional sport like the MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL, this is a very different animal and 99% of these conversations are about sports similar to these.

**totalsguy** · 12-22-18, 09:43 AM

Hehaw Speaks the The Truth
&
Alfa 1234 is 100% correct because that is exactly how it goes to the tee

in fact here is a link to an ABC News Article "WON AND DONE"
Proving Winning Online Accounts Do get closed (When U R tracked)
(Does not apply if you bet in person and stay under the radar less
than $5k in or out without using a players card
Nevada rules require Bookmaker to make a note of individuals who exceed that (No Forms to sign unless u get to $10k)
link copy and paste into browser bar

Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money

https://abcnews.go.com/Sports/won-sportsbooks-banning-smart-money/story?id=57307967

sports betting, sportsbooks, sharps, smart money, betting, gambling, legalization, william hill, las vegas, Article, 57307967

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by totalsguy

You say "You hardly think one guys good model blow out the market"
Here is the proof that says otherwise

Here is a classic example with i gave out at the time of the original post 1148am et
The Final Score was 83 44 (127)
So I won the line closed at 128 as I pointed out it was as high as 131
If I gave out my method
vs just the pick to my 1 Friend

There is No Question in my mind
I would not have won (If he nailed at SBG which was the FIRST book putting up the line on CBB "ADDED-EXTRA GAME their Rotation Schedule # is identified by six digits vs 3 (#307567) and are put up latter than the other CBB at Vegas Insider and Don Best
just 1/2 of a point was the difference between wining and losing doesn't have to be a "Market Blowout"
just 1/2 point is the difference between wining and losing
copy & paste of the portion of my post PROVES THAT
Believe me when you share something that works you create competion

Let me ask you honestly if your panning for gold a hitting big nuggets a you yelling
"hey the Gold is over here"

And yes without a doubt this is a 24 hour world wide market where learned knowledge is the difference
between winning and losing

Example CBB 4pm pt # 307567 Alcorn st vs S.Florida today
the first Book to post a totals line
was SBG Global at 851pm last night at 126.5 -120 on the Over
at 344am et I got it at the 126.5 -120
Without disclosing my Method to my friend, and after I go in I sent it to my friend
and who knows who they sent it to
at 728am today it moved to 128 and now 1127am et its 131.5
If I gave my friend my method I would be buying totals at a worse price

not if you bought first, that is the whole point if you bought first and then shared two things happen
if your model is so good and the number was good to buy at it would move anyway.

say the avg model has -145 Yankees with Franky pitching and the Yankees open at +130, if you bet them at +130 and tell your friend to bet them or share your model and he bets them, he may have or know enough people to move the line himself but in reality that line is moving anyway.

Good modelers as soon as first pitch last game and limits move , they click bet and start moving lines. and if your model is any good most of the bets you made will move your way anyway.

another thing is very very few models can outlast the adjustments, so even if you build the best model ever today and published in PDF it would be dead by the market adjusting to your market or because the market adjusts period. What are models do is try and find deficiency. we as modelers are only really doing one thing and that is improving the market. if we are doing our jobs correctly we are actually sharping the market. I mean look what online and the internet and sabers did to the market its 100000000 times sharper now than 30 years ago.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 09:55 AM

another point to this is very very few models just work out the box, most take daily human adjustments for things. I dont think very many people can say my model is solid on every game you dont even need to look at it and manually adjust sometimes

**deltgen** · 12-22-18, 10:22 AM

Thanks totalsguy. I'm curious about something--does your Edge improve when You Randomly capitalize words Throughout Your Posts?

**Alfa1234** · 12-22-18, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

Alfa you really do not have a frame of reference, you bet on outside the box middle school sports (no offense) . you obviously are betting super low stakes on these micro sports. you should try betting on a professional sport like the MLB, NHL, NBA, NFL, this is a very different animal and 99% of these conversations are about sports similar to these.

First of all, you only have a small inkling of what I bet because of that thread. I bet a LOT more than just those picks I post. If you paid attention, you'd notice there are a bunch of huge soccer and NBA games in there as well...and those are just the tip of the iceberg. I also posted some tickets for you, if you call that "micro" limits, I'd love to see some of your own betting tickets. You have 0 idea what my monthly turnover is like. Don't dismiss valid points because you don't like them.

2nd. The "animal" is exactly the same, the concept does not change whether the limit is 50k, 5k, 500$ or 50$.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 11:12 AM

I dont want to have a word sword fight with you. I will say there is a huge difference trying to get down on $50 dollar tickets compared to 5k tickets, that is a whole whole different animal. A model that is sharp for $50 bets its very likely that model would not be good for 5k tickets.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Alfa1234

You share because you aren't profitable. If you were profitable and shared all your picks, 2 things could happen:

1. Very few would be able to get on because the instant you made a decent size bet (or some of your followers), the line would move. Books would catch on rather quickly and start limiting you because you were the first to make that bet all the time, they would want to stop you from making big bets at +EV.

2. Books would analyse your pattern and correct the mistake in the line they are making. The more people bet the incorrect line and the more profit they lose, the quicker they would make the correction.

also for you to assume I am not profitable, is really not a valid point just like I have no idea what you bet you have zero idea what I bet.
You have been consistently taking pot shots at me, I am not sure why but if you dont like my points dont take pot shots just try and correct me, I really appreciate all comments that help me see the game clearer.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 11:20 AM

With all that said back to the topic. I think it would be very hard to say that there are any real secrets in sports betting or even the other things ie stocks and gold panning. Now do people have more skill or a better understanding of the math or game than others, of course they do. But as far as sharing a secret, I think there are not many secrets in the internet era!

**vampire assassin** · 12-22-18, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

With all that said back to the topic. I think it would be very hard to say that there are any real secrets in sports betting or even the other things ie stocks and gold panning. Now do people have more skill or a better understanding of the math or game than others, of course they do. But as far as sharing a secret, I think there are not many secrets in the internet era!

The best methods simply aren't on the internet. If you believe there's nothing else out there, you're destined to lose that know the better methods.

**Alfa1234** · 12-22-18, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

I dont want to have a word sword fight with you. I will say there is a huge difference trying to get down on $50 dollar tickets compared to 5k tickets, that is a whole whole different animal. A model that is sharp for $50 bets its very likely that model would not be good for 5k tickets.

I disagree, the model can be valid for all games regardless of limits. You'd just be able to find bigger edges and more bets on games with smaller limits as the lines aren't as sharp.

**Alfa1234** · 12-22-18, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

also for you to assume I am not profitable, is really not a valid point just like I have no idea what you bet you have zero idea what I bet.
You have been consistently taking pot shots at me, I am not sure why but if you dont like my points dont take pot shots just try and correct me, I really appreciate all comments that help me see the game clearer.

I assume you aren't profitable because you've said so a bunch of times on this forum...you've also stated you are trying to learn and want to meet lifetime/longtime winners. I deducted you aren't one of them.

And where have I been taking pot shots at you? If I don't like some of your points, I post why I think they are wrong and try to give valid reasons. I've never gotten personal with you, but you have tried targeting the man behind a post a bunch of times here and I'm not just talking about myself.

I can see why you think that "you" in my post above came over like a potshot directed at you though, it wasn't my intent.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by vampire assassin

The best methods simply aren't on the internet. If you believe there's nothing else out there, you're destined to lose that know the better methods.

I think its naive to think that someone has a secret recipe to betting and it has not leaked out. I think that people have more skill and better refinements than others but as far as the methodology its just not true. I dont think anyone is making groundbreaking strides on sports betting if they were I would with my low IQ think the lines would be way sharper than they are.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-22-18, 05:34 PM

if you are doing things professionally, absolutely don't share. or at least strategically share.

if you are doing things recreationally (like most people on here gambling), i don't think it matters whatsoever.

but yes, if you come up with something very valuable (i.e. high ROI and you have lots of $$$ to dedicate to it) then don't share.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 07:27 PM

I dont see any benefit to sharing if you got "it all figured out" there is no advantage to sharing. Now with that said, I do not think that there is a couple guys who have something so much more advanced that if some spy or an ex wife got their excel program the betting market would change worldwide forever, LOL.

**tsty** · 12-22-18, 08:41 PM

all a model does is give you an accurate line lol

the edge is determined by the market

does not matter if its 50 limit 100 10k 20k w.e

**tsty** · 12-22-18, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I dont see any benefit to sharing if you got "it all figured out" there is no advantage to sharing. Now with that said, I do not think that there is a couple guys who have something so much more advanced that if some spy or an ex wife got their excel program the betting market would change worldwide forever, LOL.

who are the people moving the lines if not those people that are changing the game?

you realise there are actual companies out there whose whole purpose is to invest in sportsbetting right?

who do you think has more people working on their models? the syndicates or pinnacle?

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by tsty

all a model does is give you an accurate line lol

the edge is determined by the market

does not matter if its 50 limit 100 10k 20k w.e

did you post this response in the right thread? I dont get the connection or relevance

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by tsty

who are the people moving the lines if not those people that are changing the game?

you realise there are actual companies out there whose whole purpose is to invest in sportsbetting right?

who do you think has more people working on their models? the syndicates or pinnacle?

I refuse to comment on the grounds that your ass wont answer a single question I ask you.

**danshan11** · 12-22-18, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by tsty

who are the people moving the lines if not those people that are changing the game?

you realise there are actual companies out there whose whole purpose is to invest in sportsbetting right?

who do you think has more people working on their models? the syndicates or pinnacle?

I have no idea what the 1st sentence means, stop drinking and posting
yes they are called syndicates, groups, tsty specials sure there are people that their whole business is sports betting but I dont get the relevance
I have no idea, I would assume the syndicates since pinnacle has the juice to work with it is not as important for them, they just let the syndicates help them get the sharp lines.

**gojetsgomoxies** · 12-22-18, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I dont see any benefit to sharing if you got "it all figured out" there is no advantage to sharing. Now with that said, I do not think that there is a couple guys who have something so much more advanced that if some spy or an ex wife got their excel program the betting market would change worldwide forever, LOL.

1) this forum and similar ones are all about sharing info. if people are helping you, you should help other people.
2) share info so someone might give you $$$$ or hire to invest $$$$$.

3) i think there's a mental benefit to hashing out strategies on forums like this.

you could lay out the greatest betting strategy in history of sports betting on this forum and it wouldn't affect the betting market one iota... now 1000s of people sharing good betting strategies will have an effect. and sports databases i think have made things much more efficient.

i do think that if you are highly respected poster on high traffic site and you have thread on "this line seems too easy...." then i think you might move the line slightly on very lightly bet games/sports.

**tsty** · 12-22-18, 11:34 PM

how much more do you need? just stop being lazy pieces of shit and you might get something from it

idk if dan is stupid or just acting stupid

either way poor effort

**Alfa1234** · 12-23-18, 06:19 AM

Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies

1) this forum and similar ones are all about sharing info. if people are helping you, you should help other people.
2) share info so someone might give you $$$$ or hire to invest $$$$$.

3) i think there's a mental benefit to hashing out strategies on forums like this.

you could lay out the greatest betting strategy in history of sports betting on this forum and it wouldn't affect the betting market one iota... now 1000s of people sharing good betting strategies will have an effect. and sports databases i think have made things much more efficient.

i do think that if you are highly respected poster on high traffic site and you have thread on "this line seems too easy...." then i think you might move the line slightly on very lightly bet games/sports.

Simply not true...I move the line all the time at Pinnacle. European baskbetball or smaller soccer games need only a few hundred in bets to move the line. What makes you think the same, but on a larger scale, doesn't apply to big games? It's 100% the same thing. Sharing a winning strategy = more bets on that line = more money on that line = line moves. That is the basis of all betting...I cannot see how very few seem to understand that here and think that sharing has no effect. Obviously, if the strategy isn't a winning one it doesn't matter.

**danshan11** · 12-23-18, 10:53 AM

of course bets can move a line, we all know that. I cant believe you think that your formula is so valuable that if a super ninja in the night broke into your secret computer lab and stole your strategy it would do something? are you making millions a day and if not why? if your strategy was so good it would change the world and needs to be protected why are you not on the cover of the Forbes top 100? and if your formula is so good why do you mess around with small limit minor sports at all? I think you would just bet huge on the PL and NFL and NBA where the limits are high. if you have an edge using your secret formula why work handicapping and betting on all that little shit, I am not being cute, I am trying to make sense of what you are doing.
Facts people share picks all day long RAS and others do everyday and somehow Pinnacle stays open
Syndicates share picks with each other and bet huge all day long and somehow Pinnacle stays open
Sharing your system or method or even your excel or program would be harmless, why you ask
1 it usually changes every 20 minutes, models change and grow
2 it always requires manual tweaking to work well
3 the market is so spread out and wide open with so many different ways to get down and options that it would be hard to be hurt by this.
a true long term winning formula is great to have and I dont think anyone should just give it away. they are not free I have spent countless hours working on my models and spent tons of programming money on things I could not handle that I needed done, I would not give that away for free but if I did I dont see it hurting me.

**Alfa1234** · 12-23-18, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by danshan11

of course bets can move a line, we all know that. I cant believe you think that your formula is so valuable that if a super ninja in the night broke into your secret computer lab and stole your strategy it would do something? are you making millions a day and if not why? if your strategy was so good it would change the world and needs to be protected why are you not on the cover of the Forbes top 100? and if your formula is so good why do you mess around with small limit minor sports at all? I think you would just bet huge on the PL and NFL and NBA where the limits are high. if you have an edge using your secret formula why work handicapping and betting on all that little shit, I am not being cute, I am trying to make sense of what you are doing.
Facts people share picks all day long RAS and others do everyday and somehow Pinnacle stays open
Syndicates share picks with each other and bet huge all day long and somehow Pinnacle stays open
Sharing your system or method or even your excel or program would be harmless, why you ask
1 it usually changes every 20 minutes, models change and grow
2 it always requires manual tweaking to work well
3 the market is so spread out and wide open with so many different ways to get down and options that it would be hard to be hurt by this.
a true long term winning formula is great to have and I dont think anyone should just give it away. they are not free I have spent countless hours working on my models and spent tons of programming money on things I could not handle that I needed done, I would not give that away for free but if I did I dont see it hurting me.

Give me a bookie that will take unlimited action without moving a line and it will go bankrupt, I guarantee it. The problem is limits and edge size. Pinnacle will take 1 or 2k on "big" soccer games that aren't the top 5 competitions in the world and opening lines they'll only take 200€ on a Bayern Munich game. Limits are high on big markets near closing but edges are lower. I am not going to bet 10k on a 1% edge. That is stupidity if you don't have a roll of a million.

There are a bunch of very experienced people that told you in this thread why it's bad to share a winning strategy...all you have to say about that is "no, that's not true because the market is big and there are a lot of people sharing their strategy and the edges are still there"...

There is not much more to say, you are not taking facts from people that are doing this full time and won't accept their arguments by reïtering the same, incorrect things, over and over again...if you do find a real edge and start making money you will see a lot of things that are being said were in fact correct and you'll change your point of view. No point in trying to convince you now as you won't accept correct statements anyway.

**danshan11** · 12-23-18, 11:57 AM

thanks for the time and help alfa, I see you said I am repeating the same wrong things, what did I say that is wrong specifically? I appreciate the response so I can research the wrong things and get them fixed straight away

**Alfa1234** · 12-23-18, 12:22 PM

Plain and simple: you said above you know bets change a line. By sharing a winning strategy, others will bet that strategy, probably some of them before you can place a bet...hence those bets change the line. In all but the biggest markets and not long before closing, you will have less money to bet on the line you want by sharing your strategy.