Betting NBA Quarters - Any Web Developers out there?

**stomp24** · 11-23-18, 12:53 PM

An example Bet

Just as a disclaimer, this is not an official pick, as the NBA season is still fresh, so theres not the amount of data i would like to see before submitting a pick.
However, just looking at the next game on the board. Memphis vs Clippers.

This year in the 3rd quarter memphis has gone 2 games over, and 10 games under.
Clippers in the 3rd quarter have gone 3 games over, 10 games under.

when memphis is on the road in the 3rd quarter, 0 over - 6 under
when clippers at home in the 3rd quarter, 2 over - 5 under

when memphis is the dog, 1 over, 7 under
when clippers are the favorite, 2 over, 2 unders

when memphis is playing with >0 rest, 0 over, 5 unders
whem clippers are playing >0 rest, 2 over, 2 unders

when all factors combined memphis 0 overs, 5 unders
clippers 2, 2

Obviously not TONS of data points just yet ... however, i would say the under in the 3Q seems like a good bet today.
This is a PREGAME bet, not live wagering.

**stomp24** · 11-23-18, 04:02 PM

Other Picks:
1Q: under
2Q: over
3Q: Under
4Q: Under

**stomp24** · 11-23-18, 05:41 PM

3-1!!!
Would've been 4-0 if mark gasol doesnt foul on a 3 point attempt on the last second of the game!

**stomp24** · 11-23-18, 07:16 PM

More Quarter picks:Phil 76ers 2nd quarterToronto washington Over 2nd QIndiana 2QSan Antonio / Indiana Over 2QMilwaukee 1QMilwaukee 2QPhx / Mil Over 2QOrlando 1QOrlando 3Q

**nash13** · 11-24-18, 08:07 PM

if you can determine algorithms by giving teams a specific number or characteristic point of emphasis, it easy to create a matrix which determines your bet. just need a basic concept of team specific factors and how you match them.

**stomp24** · 11-25-18, 12:24 AM

ya i already have it all calculating in excel.
I'd like to put it on a website which then updates daily with previous scores. then pulls todays matchups, analyzes all of them automatically and just posts the picks of the day ... rather than the manual process.

**stomp24** · 11-25-18, 12:25 AM

Record so far 8-5

Sunday Picks:
Orlando 1Q
NY Mem 1Q Under
NY Mem 3Q Under
Mem 2Q
Por 1Q
Por LAC Over 1Q

**Waterstpub87** · 11-25-18, 10:16 PM

You might want to look instead at the minutes per quarter that certain players play, then constructing the lines that way. Even something simple like weighted +- during a certain quarter might be easier, and might actually produce good results. The problem with many of systems like you describe is that they fail to account for injures. I'm always suspicious of betting anything that is based on "0-6 ATS" and other such things.

**stomp24** · 11-26-18, 07:27 PM

true ... but then you'd be projecting who is going to play that quarter to begin with. So its still inaccurate.
However, typically speaking ... every team has the same rotation per game in terms of minutes and who will play.
Also the reason i am not selecting a pick from all the games, is because of a few things: in the case of Utah and Boston for example they have injuries and thus that data will change.
Lastly, what i want to do is if a team is 0-6 in the 2nd quarter for example (first of all i would wait till at least 10 games have been played, but lets say this is a subset of being at home), if the Other team isnt above .500 i wouldnt even consider it. If both teams suck, then its just a crapshoot at that point.
Obviously were still early into the season, I'd say once all teams have played roughly 10 games on the road and 10 at home, i think some of the trends will become a lot more apparent.

**Waterstpub87** · 11-26-18, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by stomp24

true ... but then you'd be projecting who is going to play that quarter to begin with. So its still inaccurate.
However, typically speaking ... every team has the same rotation per game in terms of minutes and who will play.
Also the reason i am not selecting a pick from all the games, is because of a few things: in the case of Utah and Boston for example they have injuries and thus that data will change.
Lastly, what i want to do is if a team is 0-6 in the 2nd quarter for example (first of all i would wait till at least 10 games have been played, but lets say this is a subset of being at home), if the Other team isnt above .500 i wouldnt even consider it. If both teams suck, then its just a crapshoot at that point.
Obviously were still early into the season, I'd say once all teams have played roughly 10 games on the road and 10 at home, i think some of the trends will become a lot more apparent.

If Steph Curry normally plays 10 minutes in the second quarter, but is injured, so Quinn cook plays 10 minutes instead, you be more accurate estimating it based on that, instead of just Golden State is 6-0 in the 2nd quarter.

Ignoring games with injuries for you is probably the best move

**stomp24** · 11-26-18, 09:54 PM

ya the problem with that method is team chemistry. A site called prediction machine used to do something similar for baseball, where each players value against the pitcher created a simulation and would predict the score. baseball is a 1 on 1 sport. In basketball, cook may be a high scorer when leading the 2nd unit, but when playing with KD his value may be nothing (or even negative). And thus it is important to at least notate it, and then store that information as a different subset of data for future use.

**stomp24** · 11-27-18, 02:19 AM

Mondays picks 5-0-1, record now 16-8-1 (67%)
Listed here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...rs-ats-ou.html

**stomp24** · 11-30-18, 01:59 PM

Fridays Picks:
2 point plays
OKC 3Q
Phi Wash Over 1st Quarter
Dal Lakers Over 2nd Quarter

1 point plays
OKC Atl over 2nd quarter
Phila 1st Quarter
Spurs 1H
Hou/SAS under 4th Quarter (which i hate this play, but the numbers are the numbers)

Another bet. New Orleans is a pretty strong 2H team, but that is also because they are often being outplayed in the 1H.
So i would suggest .5 units on the 3rd Q and .5 units on the 4th Quarter.
if they are not winning by a lot at half (lets say over 7-8 points), then i would take the 2nd half for the other 1 unit. (it should be less than -1)

Good luck

**stomp24** · 12-02-18, 04:57 PM

3 plays today:
New Orleans / Char Over 1H
Memphis / Phila Over 2Q
Memphis / Phila Under 3Q

**stomp24** · 12-02-18, 05:00 PM

as an FYI ... if the 3Q is any lower than 53, skip it. I'm seeing some high variance on this line depending on the book.