Information opening line vs closing line - calculating average % CLV

[cyp213]

no not true many guys have better working knowledge on line value than me, it is literally the backbone of sports betting

Yes but those people who's doing the same thing as me I don't think they are willing to share this kind of information publicly. Well let's see I'm waiting = ) I will read your link, thank you again.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think you answered your own question and are very knowledgable already.

i think your comment that you are pretty good at predicting line movements but it is not enough to beat juice is correct. generally true for everyone that has good insight ...... of course, if you combine "bad lines" with "predicting general market line movement", then the juice is beatable. but as mentioned here numerous times, "bad lines" are rare and pouncing on them make you very unpopular quickly (also, need to move a large amount of money around constantly, which is a massive pain)

the one poster is correct. combine handicapping with predicting line movement and then you can have nice ROI... i think people confuse closing line correlating highly with game result to handicapping can't be +EV. not true IMO

[cyp213]

That's not the point about bad line sir. What I'm trying to illustrate is that I have a system that can beat the closing line consistently but there's many way to improve the system into picking only value (from the market price and numbers probabilities calculated) with highest return. I'm testing this system since 1 year and after more than 4000 bets I beat the closing line just enough to make small profit, what I want to know is closing line average differential either in % or cents I need to acquire or figure out to make reasonable ROI/YIELD for time invested. It's very delicate and hard process but it seems indeed to work. I was ex professional poker player for more than 8 years, I played millions of hands and it is mostly the same principle on big sample size.